# Sysco (SYY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SYY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:13.790Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $82.15 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $47.80 per share, central $54.36 per share, high $63.10 per share. Buy at or below the central value $54.36 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:13.790Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 23.1%

- FY2018: 26.8%

- FY2019: 31.1%

- FY2020: 8.5%

- FY2021: 20.2%

- FY2022: 24.8%

- FY2023: 30.2%

- FY2024: 27.3%

- FY2025: 23.3%

- FY2026: 22.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.13×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $8.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.18×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: 1.10×

- FY2026: 1.24×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 26.8% vs 23.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.08 to 3.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Market cap gain: $13B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.6%

- Per-share value change: $1.65

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.08

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.41

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $14B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 26.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $2.08

- FY2018: $2.70

- FY2019: $3.20

- FY2020: $0.42

- FY2021: $1.02

- FY2022: $2.64

- FY2023: $3.47

- FY2024: $3.89

- FY2025: $3.73

- FY2026: $3.66

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.50×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -6.1%

- FY2018: -4.0%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -6.2%

- FY2021: -6.4%

- FY2022: -2.0%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -2.5%

- FY2026: -3.1%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years · "Sysco unveils $500M AI-powered efficiency plan, raises mid-term growth targets" (seekingalpha.com, Sep 2026) · sales +3.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:39.458Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Food distributor Sysco cuts annual forecasts on weak restaurant traffic ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/food-distributor-sysco-cuts-annual-142436529.html))

- 2025-07-29: Sysco beats Q4 earnings, but shares fall on weak volume growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sysco-beats-q4-earnings-shares-125841973.html))

- 2025-10-28: Sysco falls after profit guidance lands slightly short of expectations ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4509178-sysco-falls-after-profit-guidance-lands-slightly-short-of-expectations?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-23: Sysco (SYY) Valuation Check After Higher Profit Outlook And Strong Quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sysco-syy-valuation-check-higher-081016394.html))

- 2026-04-28: Sysco Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates on Incentive Cost Headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sysco-q3-earnings-miss-estimates-143700847.html))

- 2026-08-19: The Bull Case For Sysco (SYY) Could Change Following Weaker Returns On Earlier Investments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bull-case-sysco-syy-could-231624366.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm; observed 2026-08-21.

- FY2017: $55B 

- FY2018: $59B 

- FY2019: $60B 

- FY2020: $53B 

- FY2021: $51B 

- FY2022: $69B 

- FY2023: $76B 

- FY2024: $79B 

- FY2025: $81B 

- FY2026: $85B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 18.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm; observed 2026-08-21.

- FY2017: 19.1% 

- FY2018: 18.9% 

- FY2019: 19.0% 

- FY2020: 18.7% 

- FY2021: 18.2% 

- FY2022: 17.9% 

- FY2023: 18.3% 

- FY2024: 18.5% 

- FY2025: 18.4% 

- FY2026: 18.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in food distribution; annual sales are USD 84.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-21); FY2026: revenue 84553000000; grossProfit 15639000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.4% to 18.5% during 2024–26; it earns 24.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-21); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.23062546366842718],[2018,0.2675260507415158],[2019,0.31088505131136546],[2020,0.08542048080142962],[2021,0.20202879861706982],[2022,0.24787274703123277],[2023,0.30242308185336697],[2024,0.27250008053233177],[2025,0.23322867744791687],[2026,0.2249333544895877]]; median 0.2405507122395748. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-21); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.18240043738291295],[2022,0.17949763972259455],[2023,0.18283655420897477]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 200 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 686378000; owner earnings 1358117000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 687815000; owner earnings 1508449000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 692391000; owner earnings 1745815000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 720423000; owner earnings 409193000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 470676000; owner earnings 905355000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 633000000; owner earnings 1607000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 793000000; owner earnings 1866000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 832000000; owner earnings 2120000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 906000000; owner earnings 2008000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-21); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 700000000; owner earnings 2186000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); Dividend observations: [[2017,698647000],[2018,722158000],[2019,775430000],[2020,856312000],[2021,917564000],[2022,959000000],[2023,996000000],[2024,1008000000],[2025,1000000000],[2026,1037000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-21); FY2026: cash repurchases 200000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SYY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.186 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may be required to pay material amounts under multiemployer defined benefit pension plans" (SEC filing, Aug 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm (filed 2026-08-21); We may be required to pay material amounts under multiemployer defined benefit pension plans

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07427540551838685. Price 82.15; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.8791169884506387 → FY2026 4.548365576976413. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $48.12 per share

- 2016-11: $53.25 per share

- 2016-12: $55.37 per share

- 2017-01: $52.46 per share

- 2017-02: $52.72 per share

- 2017-03: $51.92 per share

- 2017-04: $52.87 per share

- 2017-05: $54.56 per share

- 2017-06: $50.33 per share

- 2017-07: $52.62 per share

- 2017-08: $52.67 per share

- 2017-09: $53.95 per share

- 2017-10: $55.62 per share

- 2017-11: $57.73 per share

- 2017-12: $60.73 per share

- 2018-01: $62.87 per share

- 2018-02: $59.65 per share

- 2018-03: $59.96 per share

- 2018-04: $62.54 per share

- 2018-05: $65.03 per share

- 2018-06: $68.29 per share

- 2018-07: $67.21 per share

- 2018-08: $74.82 per share

- 2018-09: $73.25 per share

- 2018-10: $71.33 per share

- 2018-11: $67.40 per share

- 2018-12: $62.66 per share

- 2019-01: $63.85 per share

- 2019-02: $67.55 per share

- 2019-03: $66.76 per share

- 2019-04: $70.37 per share

- 2019-05: $68.82 per share

- 2019-06: $70.72 per share

- 2019-07: $68.57 per share

- 2019-08: $74.33 per share

- 2019-09: $79.40 per share

- 2019-10: $79.87 per share

- 2019-11: $80.55 per share

- 2019-12: $85.54 per share

- 2020-01: $82.14 per share

- 2020-02: $66.65 per share

- 2020-03: $45.63 per share

- 2020-04: $56.27 per share

- 2020-05: $55.16 per share

- 2020-06: $54.66 per share

- 2020-07: $52.85 per share

- 2020-08: $60.14 per share

- 2020-09: $62.22 per share

- 2020-10: $55.31 per share

- 2020-11: $71.29 per share

- 2020-12: $74.26 per share

- 2021-01: $71.51 per share

- 2021-02: $79.63 per share

- 2021-03: $78.74 per share

- 2021-04: $84.73 per share

- 2021-05: $81.00 per share

- 2021-06: $77.75 per share

- 2021-07: $74.20 per share

- 2021-08: $79.65 per share

- 2021-09: $78.50 per share

- 2021-10: $76.90 per share

- 2021-11: $70.04 per share

- 2021-12: $78.55 per share

- 2022-01: $78.15 per share

- 2022-02: $87.10 per share

- 2022-03: $81.65 per share

- 2022-04: $85.48 per share

- 2022-05: $84.18 per share

- 2022-06: $84.71 per share

- 2022-07: $84.90 per share

- 2022-08: $82.22 per share

- 2022-09: $70.71 per share

- 2022-10: $86.56 per share

- 2022-11: $86.51 per share

- 2022-12: $76.45 per share

- 2023-01: $77.46 per share

- 2023-02: $74.57 per share

- 2023-03: $77.23 per share

- 2023-04: $76.74 per share

- 2023-05: $69.95 per share

- 2023-06: $74.20 per share

- 2023-07: $76.31 per share

- 2023-08: $69.65 per share

- 2023-09: $66.05 per share

- 2023-10: $66.49 per share

- 2023-11: $72.17 per share

- 2023-12: $73.13 per share

- 2024-01: $80.93 per share

- 2024-02: $80.97 per share

- 2024-03: $81.18 per share

- 2024-04: $74.32 per share

- 2024-05: $72.82 per share

- 2024-06: $71.39 per share

- 2024-07: $76.65 per share

- 2024-08: $77.97 per share

- 2024-09: $78.06 per share

- 2024-10: $74.95 per share

- 2024-11: $77.11 per share

- 2024-12: $76.46 per share

- 2025-01: $72.92 per share

- 2025-02: $75.54 per share

- 2025-03: $75.04 per share

- 2025-04: $71.40 per share

- 2025-05: $73.00 per share

- 2025-06: $75.74 per share

- 2025-07: $79.60 per share

- 2025-08: $80.47 per share

- 2025-09: $82.34 per share

- 2025-10: $74.28 per share

- 2025-11: $76.20 per share

- 2025-12: $73.69 per share

- 2026-01: $83.85 per share

- 2026-02: $91.16 per share

- 2026-03: $71.33 per share

- 2026-04: $74.71 per share

- 2026-05: $75.81 per share

- 2026-06: $83.58 per share

- 2026-07: $85.24 per share

- 2026-08: $81.08 per share

- 2026-09: $77.96 per share

- 2026-10: $79.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $25.05 per share, central $30.12 per share, high $35.08 per share

- FY2018: low $29.00 per share, central $36.82 per share, high $43.00 per share

- FY2019: low $34.41 per share, central $44.00 per share, high $51.42 per share

- FY2020: low $37.32 per share, central $41.12 per share, high $46.18 per share

- FY2021: low $30.64 per share, central $34.33 per share, high $39.24 per share

- FY2022: low $34.17 per share, central $38.88 per share, high $45.16 per share

- FY2023: low $38.32 per share, central $43.60 per share, high $50.64 per share

- FY2024: low $40.11 per share, central $45.64 per share, high $53.00 per share

- FY2025: low $44.39 per share, central $50.51 per share, high $58.66 per share

- FY2026: low $47.65 per share, central $54.19 per share, high $62.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96021/000009602126000033/syy-20260627.htm); period 2026-06-27, filed 2026-08-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.