# AT&T (T.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/T

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:14.170Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $23.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $27.34 per share, central $30.82 per share, high $35.46 per share. Buy at or below the central value $30.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:14.170Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.5% at the stated quote. About 12.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.44×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.16×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: -0.04×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 13.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.8%

- FY2017: 15.7%

- FY2018: 10.5%

- FY2019: 11.7%

- FY2020: 8.5%

- FY2021: 8.4%

- FY2022: -2.0%

- FY2023: 10.6%

- FY2024: 10.0%

- FY2025: 10.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $60B

- Net income, five-year total: $59B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -14.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -15.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.07×

- FY2022: 1.19×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.8% vs 10.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.79 to 1.98 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: -$85B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$19B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.98

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.38

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $93B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $129B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.58

- FY2017: $3.60

- FY2018: $2.15

- FY2019: $1.43

- FY2020: -$0.69

- FY2021: $2.68

- FY2022: -$1.12

- FY2023: $1.98

- FY2024: $1.52

- FY2025: $3.05

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.62×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.5%

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -6.3%

- FY2020: -9.2%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: -10.1%

- FY2023: -5.9%

- FY2024: -7.0%

- FY2025: -4.4%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.8% a year for ten years · sales +2.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:39.553Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2016: $164B 

- FY2017: $161B 

- FY2018: $171B 

- FY2019: $181B 

- FY2020: $172B 

- FY2021: $134B 

- FY2022: $121B 

- FY2023: $122B 

- FY2024: $122B 

- FY2025: $126B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 59.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2016: 37.3% 

- FY2017: 36.3% 

- FY2018: 36.9% 

- FY2019: 38.0% 

- FY2020: 36.9% 

- FY2021: 54.9% 

- FY2022: 57.9% 

- FY2023: 43.7% 

- FY2024: 42.9% 

- FY2025: 59.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in telecom services; annual sales are USD 125.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: revenue 125648000000; grossProfit 74828000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); T.US: AT&T Inc. provides telecommunications and technology services worldwide. It operates through two segments, Communications and Latin America. The Communications segment offers wireless voice and data communications services; and sells handsets, wireless data cards, wireless computing devices, carrying cases/protective covers, and wireless chargers through its own company-owned stores, agents, and third-party retail stores. It also provides AT&T Dedicated Internet, fiber ethernet and broadband, fixed wireless, and hosted and managed professional services; and copper-based voice and data, Virtual Private Networks (VPN), wholesale, outsourcing, and IP, as well as customer premises equipment for multinational corporations, small and mid-sized businesses, governmental, and wholesale customers. In addition, this segment offers broadband services, including fiber connections, legacy telephony voice communication services, and other VoIP services and equipment to residential customers. This segment markets its communications services and products under the AT&T, AT&T Business, Cricket, AT&T PREPAID, AT&T Fiber, and AT&T Internet Air brand names. Its Latin America segment provides postpaid and prepaid wireless services in Mexico under the AT&T and Unefon brand names, as well as sells smartphones through its stores, agents and third-party retail stores. The company was formerly known as SBC Communications Inc. and changed its name to AT&T Inc. in 2005. AT&T Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 42.9% to 59.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12836118888148582],[2017,0.15749028540801285],[2018,0.10473209973068316],[2019,0.1168474339997892],[2020,0.08509249990576193],[2021,0.08436219877689423],[2022,-0.020066839071230403],[2023,0.10617411201067553],[2024,0.09969889307678749],[2025,0.10671443969045442]]; median 0.10545310587067935. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 6.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 21516000000; owner earnings 17307000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 20647000000; owner earnings 33190000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 20758000000; owner earnings 27042000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 19435000000; owner earnings 22685000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 15675000000; owner earnings 7665000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 16527000000; owner earnings 21406000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 17853000000; owner earnings 15251667413.428919. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 20263000000; owner earnings 11231238064.147556. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 20842000000; owner earnings 21930183443.085606. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,11797000000],[2017,12038000000],[2018,13410000000],[2019,14888000000],[2020,14956000000],[2021,15068000000],[2022,9859000000],[2023,8136000000],[2024,8208000000],[2025,8180000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: cash repurchases 6575000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); T.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.091 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Adverse changes in global financial markets could limit our ability" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-09); Adverse changes in global financial markets could limit our ability

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.052072486890288594. Price 23.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.159510837285012 → FY2025 3.0547685531530306. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $29.18 per share

- 2016-12: $32.12 per share

- 2017-01: $31.84 per share

- 2017-02: $31.56 per share

- 2017-03: $31.38 per share

- 2017-04: $29.93 per share

- 2017-05: $29.10 per share

- 2017-06: $28.50 per share

- 2017-07: $29.46 per share

- 2017-08: $28.29 per share

- 2017-09: $29.58 per share

- 2017-10: $25.42 per share

- 2017-11: $27.48 per share

- 2017-12: $29.37 per share

- 2018-01: $28.29 per share

- 2018-02: $27.42 per share

- 2018-03: $26.93 per share

- 2018-04: $24.70 per share

- 2018-05: $24.41 per share

- 2018-06: $24.25 per share

- 2018-07: $24.15 per share

- 2018-08: $24.12 per share

- 2018-09: $25.36 per share

- 2018-10: $23.17 per share

- 2018-11: $23.60 per share

- 2018-12: $21.56 per share

- 2019-01: $22.70 per share

- 2019-02: $23.50 per share

- 2019-03: $23.69 per share

- 2019-04: $23.38 per share

- 2019-05: $23.10 per share

- 2019-06: $25.31 per share

- 2019-07: $25.72 per share

- 2019-08: $26.63 per share

- 2019-09: $28.58 per share

- 2019-10: $29.07 per share

- 2019-11: $28.23 per share

- 2019-12: $29.52 per share

- 2020-01: $28.41 per share

- 2020-02: $26.60 per share

- 2020-03: $22.02 per share

- 2020-04: $23.01 per share

- 2020-05: $23.31 per share

- 2020-06: $22.83 per share

- 2020-07: $22.34 per share

- 2020-08: $22.52 per share

- 2020-09: $21.53 per share

- 2020-10: $20.41 per share

- 2020-11: $21.71 per share

- 2020-12: $21.72 per share

- 2021-01: $21.62 per share

- 2021-02: $21.06 per share

- 2021-03: $22.86 per share

- 2021-04: $23.72 per share

- 2021-05: $22.23 per share

- 2021-06: $21.74 per share

- 2021-07: $21.19 per share

- 2021-08: $20.71 per share

- 2021-09: $20.40 per share

- 2021-10: $19.08 per share

- 2021-11: $17.24 per share

- 2021-12: $18.58 per share

- 2022-01: $19.26 per share

- 2022-02: $17.89 per share

- 2022-03: $17.85 per share

- 2022-04: $18.86 per share

- 2022-05: $21.29 per share

- 2022-06: $20.96 per share

- 2022-07: $18.78 per share

- 2022-08: $17.54 per share

- 2022-09: $15.34 per share

- 2022-10: $18.23 per share

- 2022-11: $19.28 per share

- 2022-12: $18.41 per share

- 2023-01: $20.37 per share

- 2023-02: $18.91 per share

- 2023-03: $19.25 per share

- 2023-04: $17.67 per share

- 2023-05: $15.73 per share

- 2023-06: $15.95 per share

- 2023-07: $14.52 per share

- 2023-08: $14.79 per share

- 2023-09: $15.02 per share

- 2023-10: $15.40 per share

- 2023-11: $16.57 per share

- 2023-12: $16.78 per share

- 2024-01: $17.69 per share

- 2024-02: $16.93 per share

- 2024-03: $17.60 per share

- 2024-04: $16.89 per share

- 2024-05: $18.22 per share

- 2024-06: $19.11 per share

- 2024-07: $19.25 per share

- 2024-08: $19.90 per share

- 2024-09: $22.00 per share

- 2024-10: $22.54 per share

- 2024-11: $23.16 per share

- 2024-12: $22.77 per share

- 2025-01: $23.73 per share

- 2025-02: $27.41 per share

- 2025-03: $28.28 per share

- 2025-04: $27.70 per share

- 2025-05: $27.80 per share

- 2025-06: $28.94 per share

- 2025-07: $27.41 per share

- 2025-08: $29.29 per share

- 2025-09: $28.24 per share

- 2025-10: $24.75 per share

- 2025-11: $26.02 per share

- 2025-12: $24.84 per share

- 2026-01: $26.21 per share

- 2026-02: $28.01 per share

- 2026-03: $28.99 per share

- 2026-04: $26.13 per share

- 2026-05: $24.80 per share

- 2026-06: $20.70 per share

- 2026-07: $23.25 per share

- 2026-08: $25.89 per share

- 2026-09: $24.40 per share

- 2026-10: $22.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $23.39 per share, central $26.58 per share, high $30.81 per share

- FY2017: low $29.35 per share, central $32.60 per share, high $36.93 per share

- FY2018: low $22.97 per share, central $26.12 per share, high $30.30 per share

- FY2019: low $26.36 per share, central $29.87 per share, high $34.55 per share

- FY2020: low $32.33 per share, central $36.67 per share, high $42.45 per share

- FY2021: low $33.13 per share, central $37.39 per share, high $43.07 per share

- FY2022: low $21.95 per share, central $24.95 per share, high $28.95 per share

- FY2023: low $23.51 per share, central $26.68 per share, high $30.89 per share

- FY2024: low $17.15 per share, central $19.50 per share, high $22.62 per share

- FY2025: low $25.88 per share, central $29.17 per share, high $33.54 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/732717/000073271726000120/t-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.