# Talos Energy (TALO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TALO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:14.857Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $16.98 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $36.61 per share, central $41.21 per share, high $47.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value $41.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:14.857Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 23.2% at the stated quote. About 23.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 6.67×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.32×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.28×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: -0.73×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.45×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: -0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 28.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -4.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 28.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 2.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 32.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.3%

- FY2017: 5.1%

- FY2018: 15.6%

- FY2019: 11.9%

- FY2020: -17.5%

- FY2021: 17.7%

- FY2022: 42.4%

- FY2023: 6.3%

- FY2024: 3.5%

- FY2025: -2.7%

### economics: pass

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: -$186M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.6%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$22M

- FY2022: $529M

- FY2023: $376M

- FY2024: $556M

- FY2025: $203M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.1% vs 3.5%

- Per-share earnings: -7.99 to -0.44 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 40.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 20.9%

- Market cap gain: $1.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$925M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 40.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 20.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $7.56

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$7.99

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.44

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.07

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$643M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$7.99

- FY2017: -$2.01

- FY2018: $4.81

- FY2019: $1.08

- FY2020: -$6.88

- FY2021: -$2.24

- FY2022: $4.56

- FY2023: $1.55

- FY2024: -$0.44

- FY2025: -$2.83

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -25.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -26.7%

- FY2017: -19.3%

- FY2018: -1.7%

- FY2019: -12.9%

- FY2020: -27.1%

- FY2021: -21.5%

- FY2022: -10.7%

- FY2023: -6.9%

- FY2024: -16.8%

- FY2025: -25.8%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 21% since May 2022 · sales -9.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:39.709Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 12% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-20: Talos Energy discovers oil at Daenerys exploration prospect ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4487394-talos-energy-discovers-oil-at-daenerys-exploration-prospect?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-27: Talos Energy (TALO) Misses Estimates in Q4 2025 Report ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/talos-energy-talo-misses-estimates-152028753.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $250M 

- FY2017: $410M 

- FY2018: $891M 

- FY2019: $908M 

- FY2020: $576M 

- FY2021: $1.2B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $1.5B 

- FY2024: $2.0B 

- FY2025: $1.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 2.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 34.7% 

- FY2018: 51.0% 

- FY2019: 34.9% 

- FY2021: 45.1% 

- FY2022: 56.0% 

- FY2023: 27.6% 

- FY2024: 19.4% 

- FY2025: 2.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 1.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 1780070000; grossProfit 51358999; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 2.9% to 27.6% during 2023–25; it earns 5.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 2.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.04295699475509629],[2017,0.05076537451645438],[2018,0.15590964138098898],[2019,0.11918968865501472],[2020,-0.17533988295393543],[2021,0.1770467936488565],[2022,0.4242715831636372],[2023,0.06324445024598079],[2024,0.03509807160779167],[2025,-0.02743060416931273]]; median 0.05700491238121758. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 24.6% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 2 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 240914000; cash acquisitions 278409000; owner earnings 304689000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.9137481169323474.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 52350499.06454909; upkeep 411058500.9354509; cash acquisitions 37916000; owner earnings 27990499.06454909. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.2248978075162174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 323164000; cash acquisitions 3500000; owner earnings 529376000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.006611557758568579.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 561434000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 375584000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 508914000; cash acquisitions 936214000; owner earnings 555855000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.6842773744951471.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 481905000; cash acquisitions 49978000; owner earnings 203314000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2458168153693302.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,1859000],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,827000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 119459000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TALO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.247 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 12% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.18021812630402917. Price 16.98; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -110.05283333333334 → FY2025 1.160892106705646. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $0.73 per share

- 2016-11: $0.86 per share

- 2016-12: $1.26 per share

- 2017-01: $1.20 per share

- 2017-02: $1.22 per share

- 2017-03: $21.84 per share

- 2017-04: $20.94 per share

- 2017-05: $21.70 per share

- 2017-06: $18.38 per share

- 2017-07: $21.58 per share

- 2017-08: $24.20 per share

- 2017-09: $29.06 per share

- 2017-10: $29.42 per share

- 2017-11: $25.34 per share

- 2017-12: $32.16 per share

- 2018-01: $36.14 per share

- 2018-02: $30.26 per share

- 2018-03: $37.10 per share

- 2018-04: $35.60 per share

- 2018-05: $32.12 per share

- 2018-06: $32.13 per share

- 2018-07: $37.14 per share

- 2018-08: $34.52 per share

- 2018-09: $32.82 per share

- 2018-10: $26.06 per share

- 2018-11: $19.32 per share

- 2018-12: $16.32 per share

- 2019-01: $19.10 per share

- 2019-02: $22.45 per share

- 2019-03: $26.56 per share

- 2019-04: $29.70 per share

- 2019-05: $23.34 per share

- 2019-06: $24.05 per share

- 2019-07: $20.58 per share

- 2019-08: $19.04 per share

- 2019-09: $20.33 per share

- 2019-10: $21.53 per share

- 2019-11: $23.20 per share

- 2019-12: $30.15 per share

- 2020-01: $21.94 per share

- 2020-02: $14.20 per share

- 2020-03: $5.75 per share

- 2020-04: $11.39 per share

- 2020-05: $12.15 per share

- 2020-06: $9.20 per share

- 2020-07: $6.81 per share

- 2020-08: $7.51 per share

- 2020-09: $6.45 per share

- 2020-10: $6.58 per share

- 2020-11: $8.56 per share

- 2020-12: $8.24 per share

- 2021-01: $8.46 per share

- 2021-02: $10.59 per share

- 2021-03: $12.04 per share

- 2021-04: $11.19 per share

- 2021-05: $14.18 per share

- 2021-06: $15.64 per share

- 2021-07: $11.54 per share

- 2021-08: $12.40 per share

- 2021-09: $13.77 per share

- 2021-10: $12.97 per share

- 2021-11: $9.97 per share

- 2021-12: $9.80 per share

- 2022-01: $10.64 per share

- 2022-02: $15.71 per share

- 2022-03: $15.79 per share

- 2022-04: $18.17 per share

- 2022-05: $21.60 per share

- 2022-06: $15.47 per share

- 2022-07: $18.95 per share

- 2022-08: $20.73 per share

- 2022-09: $16.65 per share

- 2022-10: $21.28 per share

- 2022-11: $19.65 per share

- 2022-12: $18.88 per share

- 2023-01: $19.81 per share

- 2023-02: $17.81 per share

- 2023-03: $14.84 per share

- 2023-04: $13.63 per share

- 2023-05: $12.31 per share

- 2023-06: $13.87 per share

- 2023-07: $16.00 per share

- 2023-08: $17.22 per share

- 2023-09: $16.44 per share

- 2023-10: $15.50 per share

- 2023-11: $13.92 per share

- 2023-12: $14.23 per share

- 2024-01: $12.97 per share

- 2024-02: $13.19 per share

- 2024-03: $13.93 per share

- 2024-04: $13.18 per share

- 2024-05: $12.01 per share

- 2024-06: $12.15 per share

- 2024-07: $11.84 per share

- 2024-08: $11.47 per share

- 2024-09: $10.35 per share

- 2024-10: $10.22 per share

- 2024-11: $11.25 per share

- 2024-12: $9.71 per share

- 2025-01: $9.92 per share

- 2025-02: $9.00 per share

- 2025-03: $9.72 per share

- 2025-04: $6.88 per share

- 2025-05: $8.04 per share

- 2025-06: $8.48 per share

- 2025-07: $8.55 per share

- 2025-08: $9.88 per share

- 2025-09: $9.59 per share

- 2025-10: $9.81 per share

- 2025-11: $11.46 per share

- 2025-12: $11.02 per share

- 2026-01: $11.92 per share

- 2026-02: $12.25 per share

- 2026-03: $15.76 per share

- 2026-04: $15.92 per share

- 2026-05: $14.67 per share

- 2026-06: $12.91 per share

- 2026-07: $15.18 per share

- 2026-08: $17.26 per share

- 2026-09: $16.33 per share

- 2026-10: $16.98 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $6.78 per share, central $7.70 per share, high $8.92 per share

- FY2023: low $4.10 per share, central $4.67 per share, high $5.41 per share

- FY2024: low $32.04 per share, central $36.40 per share, high $42.21 per share

- FY2025: low $30.49 per share, central $34.43 per share, high $39.69 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1724965/000119312526067807/talo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.