# Tate & Lyle (TATE.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TATE.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:51.252Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 564.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 558.38 per share, central GBX 625.90 per share, high GBX 715.79 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 625.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:51.252Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.9% at the stated quote. About 10.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- FY2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 23.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 23.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.2%

- FY2018: 17.0%

- FY2019: 14.0%

- FY2020: 16.2%

- FY2021: 7.0%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: 14.6%

- FY2024: 15.0%

- FY2025: 3.4%

- FY2026: 8.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 862M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 854M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -3.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 14.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.95×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 0.96×

- FY2026: 1.46×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.0% vs 8.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.63 to 0.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -54M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -8.2%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.32

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.41

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 614M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.63

- FY2018: GBP 0.66

- FY2019: GBP 0.45

- FY2020: GBP 0.61

- FY2021: GBP 0.63

- FY2022: GBP 0.59

- FY2023: GBP 0.47

- FY2024: GBP 0.47

- FY2025: GBP 0.32

- FY2026: GBP 0.22

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.50×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: -0.8%

- FY2019: -5.3%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: 4.1%

- FY2023: 4.9%

- FY2024: -0.9%

- FY2025: -0.6%

- FY2026: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 31% since Apr 2023 · "Revenue decreased by 3% reflecting muted market demand." (TATE filing, Jun 2026) · sales +15.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.306Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +15.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2018: GBP 2.7B 

- FY2019: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.9B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2026: GBP 2.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 18.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: 41.8% 

- FY2018: 44.2% 

- FY2019: 44.9% 

- FY2020: 43.5% 

- FY2021: 39.7% 

- FY2022: 37.4% 

- FY2023: 41.9% 

- FY2024: 51.7% 

- FY2025: 40.7% 

- FY2026: 18.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are GBP 2 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: revenue 2006000000; grossProfit 364000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.1% to 51.7% during 2024–26; it earns 14.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 18.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1722550953320184],[2018,0.1700716544973521],[2019,0.13987050960735173],[2020,0.1619199697875275],[2021,0.06994579945799459],[2022,0.021961674230963187],[2023,0.14634777291754855],[2024,0.14972723966541399],[2025,0.03370841487279844],[2026,0.08382500532222256]]; median 0.14310914126245014. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"Revenue decreased by 5%, with pricing lower and volume broadly flat." (TATE filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); Revenue decreased by 5%, with pricing lower and volume broadly flat.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 127000000; owner earnings 278000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 111000000; owner earnings 308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 103000000; owner earnings 227800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 167000000; owner earnings 215800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 152000000; owner earnings 247400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2022: growth capex 48000000; upkeep 100000000; owner earnings 224200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21409455842997324.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 78000000; owner earnings 196200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 110000000; owner earnings 162800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 121000000; owner earnings 136800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 116000000; owner earnings 141800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Dividend observations: [[2017,130000000],[2018,131000000],[2019,134000000],[2020,137000000],[2021,137000000],[2022,144000000],[2023,570000000],[2024,76000000],[2025,80000000],[2026,88000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: cash repurchases 2000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TATE.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.664 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.020916593649074. Price 564; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.2579340526731853 → FY2026 0.3164564024397048. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 780.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 678.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 707.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 670.50 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 744.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 764.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 756.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 738.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 662.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 672.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 683.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 648.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 646.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 673.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 703.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 641.80 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 560.40 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 544.60 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 574.60 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 688.40 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 646.80 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 624.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 670.40 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 682.80 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 673.20 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 718.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 660.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 687.80 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 695.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 725.80 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 767.60 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 722.20 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 738.40 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 755.40 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 719.40 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 736.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 673.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 731.40 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 760.20 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 792.80 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 705.60 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 656.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 712.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 673.40 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 667.60 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 651.20 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 681.80 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 665.20 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 595.20 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 637.80 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 674.40 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 688.80 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 727.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 767.20 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 800.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 766.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 738.40 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 739.20 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 705.60 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 691.80 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 648.20 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 629.40 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 661.40 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 706.40 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 753.20 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 732.20 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 777.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 744.50 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 749.40 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 802.80 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 764.20 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 680.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 701.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 730.80 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 711.20 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 753.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 802.40 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 784.60 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 815.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 786.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 726.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 746.50 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 706.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 685.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 630.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 617.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 659.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 623.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 600.50 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 617.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 659.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 692.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 598.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 657.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 677.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 682.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 750.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 737.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 649.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 657.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 545.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 517.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 558.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 553.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 516.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 536.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 531.50 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 449.60 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 386.20 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 374.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 374.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 376.60 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 376.60 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 362.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 367.10 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 505.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 554.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 554.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 554.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 559.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 564.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 677.43 per share, central GBX 762.85 per share, high GBX 876.56 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 645.10 per share, central GBX 729.40 per share, high GBX 841.62 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 677.09 per share, central GBX 762.40 per share, high GBX 875.96 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 713.85 per share, central GBX 823.69 per share, high GBX 949.23 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 418.40 per share, central GBX 464.21 per share, high GBX 525.18 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 444.59 per share, central GBX 503.00 per share, high GBX 580.76 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 639.09 per share, central GBX 712.21 per share, high GBX 809.54 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 608.80 per share, central GBX 678.73 per share, high GBX 771.83 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 542.96 per share, central GBX 608.59 per share, high GBX 695.95 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 551.50 per share, central GBX 618.19 per share, high GBX 706.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:36.584Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138008K14474WPKZ244/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31/reports/2138008K14474WPKZ244-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Tate & Lyle

TATE · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 564.00
Buy up to: GBX 625.90
Expected / yr: 10.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 23.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 10.6%
Worst year: 4.9%
Latest · 2026: 11.2%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 14.3% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 3.4% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 23.7 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 14.3%
Worst year: 2.2%
Latest · 2026: 8.4%

New investment earned -3.4% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 14.6% of sales (limit 10%) to 32.8% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.01×
Annual median: 0.96×
Latest · 2026: 1.46×

Per-share value fell from 0.63 to 0.32, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 1.1% over ten years and 2.2% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.53
Worst year: GBP 0.22
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.22

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -3.8% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -1.2%
Worst year: 4.9%
Latest · 2026: -3.8%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 9.7%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.34 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 780.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 678.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 707.50; 2017-01 · Price GBX 670.50 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-02 · Price GBX 744.00 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-03 · Price GBX 764.50 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-04 · Price GBX 756.50 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-05 · Price GBX 738.00 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-06 · Price GBX 662.00 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-07 · Price GBX 672.00 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-08 · Price GBX 683.50 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-09 · Price GBX 648.50 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-10 · Price GBX 646.50 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-11 · Price GBX 673.00 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2017-12 · Price GBX 703.00 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2018-01 · Price GBX 641.80 · Value 762.85 · Buy at or below 762.85; 2018-02 · Price GBX 560.40 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-03 · Price GBX 544.60 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-04 · Price GBX 574.60 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-05 · Price GBX 688.40 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-06 · Price GBX 646.80 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-07 · Price GBX 624.00 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-08 · Price GBX 670.40 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-09 · Price GBX 682.80 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-10 · Price GBX 673.20 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-11 · Price GBX 718.00 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2018-12 · Price GBX 660.00 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2019-01 · Price GBX 687.80 · Value 729.40 · Buy at or below 729.40; 2019-02 · Price GBX 695.00 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-03 · Price GBX 725.80 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-04 · Price GBX 767.60 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-05 · Price GBX 722.20 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-06 · Price GBX 738.40 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-07 · Price GBX 755.40 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-08 · Price GBX 719.40 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-09 · Price GBX 736.00 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-10 · Price GBX 673.00 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-11 · Price GBX 731.40 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2019-12 · Price GBX 760.20 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2020-01 · Price GBX 792.80 · Value 762.40 · Buy at or below 762.40; 2020-02 · Price GBX 705.60 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-03 · Price GBX 656.00 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-04 · Price GBX 712.20 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-05 · Price GBX 673.40 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-06 · Price GBX 667.60 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-07 · Price GBX 651.20 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-08 · Price GBX 681.80 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-09 · Price GBX 665.20 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-10 · Price GBX 595.20 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-11 · Price GBX 637.80 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2020-12 · Price GBX 674.40 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2021-01 · Price GBX 688.80 · Value 823.69 · Buy at or below 823.69; 2021-02 · Price GBX 727.00 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-03 · Price GBX 767.20 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-04 · Price GBX 800.00 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-05 · Price GBX 766.00 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-06 · Price GBX 738.40 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-07 · Price GBX 739.20 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-08 · Price GBX 705.60 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-09 · Price GBX 691.80 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-10 · Price GBX 648.20 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-11 · Price GBX 629.40 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2021-12 · Price GBX 661.40 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2022-01 · Price GBX 706.40 · Value 464.21 · Buy at or below 464.21; 2022-02 · Price GBX 753.20 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-03 · Price GBX 732.20 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-04 · Price GBX 777.00 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-05 · Price GBX 744.50 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-06 · Price GBX 749.40 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-07 · Price GBX 802.80 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-08 · Price GBX 764.20 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-09 · Price GBX 680.00 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-10 · Price GBX 701.00 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-11 · Price GBX 730.80 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2022-12 · Price GBX 711.20 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2023-01 · Price GBX 753.00 · Value 503.00 · Buy at or below 503.00; 2023-02 · Price GBX 802.40 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-03 · Price GBX 784.60 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-04 · Price GBX 815.00 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-05 · Price GBX 786.00 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-06 · Price GBX 726.00 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-07 · Price GBX 746.50 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-08 · Price GBX 706.50 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-09 · Price GBX 685.50 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-10 · Price GBX 630.50 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-11 · Price GBX 617.00 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2023-12 · Price GBX 659.00 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2024-01 · Price GBX 623.00 · Value 712.21 · Buy at or below 712.21; 2024-02 · Price GBX 600.50 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-03 · Price GBX 617.50 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-04 · Price GBX 659.00 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-05 · Price GBX 692.00 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-06 · Price GBX 598.00 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-07 · Price GBX 657.50 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-08 · Price GBX 677.00 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-09 · Price GBX 682.50 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-10 · Price GBX 750.00 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-11 · Price GBX 737.00 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2024-12 · Price GBX 649.50 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2025-01 · Price GBX 657.50 · Value 678.73 · Buy at or below 678.73; 2025-02 · Price GBX 545.00 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-03 · Price GBX 517.50 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-04 · Price GBX 558.00 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-05 · Price GBX 553.00 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-06 · Price GBX 516.50 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-07 · Price GBX 536.00 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-08 · Price GBX 531.50 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-09 · Price GBX 449.60 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-10 · Price GBX 386.20 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-11 · Price GBX 374.60 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2025-12 · Price GBX 374.80 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2026-01 · Price GBX 376.60 · Value 608.59 · Buy at or below 608.59; 2026-02 · Price GBX 376.60 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-03 · Price GBX 362.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-04 · Price GBX 367.10 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-05 · Price GBX 505.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-06 · Price GBX 554.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-07 · Price GBX 554.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-08 · Price GBX 554.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-09 · Price GBX 559.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-10 · Price GBX 564.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19; 2026-10 · Price GBX 564.00 · Value 618.19 · Buy at or below 618.19

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 558.38 – GBX 715.79
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 625.90
Discount to value	1 − 564.00 / 625.90 = 9.9%
Return / year	About 10.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 44.80/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 68.66/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 2.0B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 142M

Owner earnings

Operating margin11.2%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -950M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares448M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·