# Trip.com Group (9961.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/9961.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:32.688Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 309.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 452.22 per share, central HKD 494.49 per share, high HKD 550.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 494.49 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:32.688Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.4% at the stated quote. About 18.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: -0.08×

- FY2021: -0.07×

- FY2022: 0.00×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.25×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.16×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 79.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 80.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.9%

- FY2018: 8.4%

- FY2019: 17.6%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: 0.1%

- FY2023: 19.7%

- FY2024: 27.3%

- FY2025: 21.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 19.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 63B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 61B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.40×

- FY2022: 1.49×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.4% vs 21.6%

- Per-share earnings: 3.63 to 24.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Per-share value growth: 37.8%

- Per-share value change: CNY 21.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 3.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 24.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: CNY 3.63

- FY2018: CNY 2.02

- FY2019: CNY 10.90

- FY2020: CNY -5.42

- FY2021: CNY -0.85

- FY2022: CNY 2.13

- FY2023: CNY 14.78

- FY2024: CNY 24.78

- FY2025: CNY 47.67

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 7.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 15.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.43×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.44×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -0.2%

- FY2020: 0.3%

- FY2021: -1.6%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -1.1%

- FY2025: 7.1%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 48% since Sep 2025 · "Trip.com (TCOM) Books RMB5.2 Billion Penalty. Can Overseas Growth Offset Domestic Pressure?" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +4.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.158Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-20: Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) Sees Revenue Rise To ¥13,830 Million In Q1 2025 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trip-com-group-nasdaqgs-tcom-175755311.html))

- 2026-06-26: Trip.com Group (TCOM) Is Down 10.2% After Softer Q2 Outlook Tempered Post-Strong Q1 Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trip-com-group-tcom-down-042841909.html))

- 2026-09-20: Trip.com (TCOM) Books RMB5.2 Billion Penalty. Can Overseas Growth Offset Domestic Pressure? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trip-com-tcom-books-rmb5-183136873.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-28.

- FY2017: CNY 27B 

- FY2018: CNY 31B 

- FY2019: CNY 36B 

- FY2020: CNY 18B 

- FY2021: CNY 20B 

- FY2022: CNY 20B 

- FY2023: CNY 45B 

- FY2024: CNY 53B 

- FY2025: CNY 62B 

- FY2026: CNY 65B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 80.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-28.

- FY2017: 82.5% 

- FY2018: 79.6% 

- FY2019: 79.3% 

- FY2020: 78.0% 

- FY2021: 77.0% 

- FY2022: 77.5% 

- FY2023: 81.8% 

- FY2024: 81.3% 

- FY2025: 80.6% 

- FY2026: 80.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are CNY 62.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: revenue 62409000000; grossProfit 50287000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 9961.HK: Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 80.6% to 81.8% during 2023–25; it earns 13% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 81.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 81.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 80.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06888505981625913],[2018,0.08361728395061728],[2019,0.17586627611487593],[2020,-0.023637376732059127],[2021,-0.02116687554593445],[2022,0.001028910172556454],[2023,0.19650797905065026],[2024,0.2733905539816197],[2025,0.2160223818837115],[2026,0.19126466989847532]]; median 0.1297417800327466. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 9 years; bought back CNY 4.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 494185656; owner earnings 2531027543. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 708000000; owner earnings 1386000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 834000000; owner earnings 7477200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 571000000; owner earnings 217961100. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 498000000; owner earnings 2089200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 606000000; owner earnings 10240600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 591000000; owner earnings 17432000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 797000000; owner earnings 33422200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,1423000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: cash repurchases 4396000000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 9961.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.933 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.13412617565583235. Price 309.2; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2021-04: HKD 307.80 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 316.80 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 276.00 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 215.00 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 226.20 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 234.80 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 225.40 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 211.00 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 190.80 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 200.00 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 209.00 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 188.60 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 187.20 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 176.30 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 221.60 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 198.10 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 206.20 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 210.80 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 173.20 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 235.60 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 273.60 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 289.20 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 277.60 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 293.80 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 274.80 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 251.20 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 272.60 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 311.40 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 309.40 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 279.20 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 268.80 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 274.60 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 277.60 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 280.40 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 356.80 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 345.20 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 385.40 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 391.60 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 374.60 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 337.80 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 370.20 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 491.00 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 501.00 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 508.50 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 540.00 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 548.00 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 436.60 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 494.20 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 468.00 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 494.00 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 456.00 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 492.00 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 578.00 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 596.00 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 543.50 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 535.00 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 554.00 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 481.80 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 411.40 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 380.80 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 417.80 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 368.80 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 311.60 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 366.40 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 359.20 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 308.20 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 309.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2021: low HKD 106.67 per share, central HKD 109.12 per share, high HKD 112.38 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 92.49 per share, central HKD 94.90 per share, high HKD 98.10 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 190.78 per share, central HKD 203.00 per share, high HKD 219.27 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 232.57 per share, central HKD 246.82 per share, high HKD 265.81 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 393.25 per share, central HKD 429.59 per share, high HKD 477.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:18.670Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269238/000119312526183379/d27369d20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.