Profits were positive in 10 years (at least 9 needed).
- 10y median
- CAD 11B
- Worst year
- CAD 8.3B
- Latest · 2025
- CAD 20B
# Toronto Dominion Bank (TD.TO) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TD.TO Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:33.907Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025. Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD. ## Verdict A wonderful business at a fair price Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes. Share price: CAD 170.02 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low CAD 141.83 per share, central CAD 177.28 per share, high CAD 236.38 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 177.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:33.907Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 10.2% at the stated quote. About 10.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - Financial history: 10 years - Profitable years in the last ten: 10 - Required profitable years: 9 - Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.20× Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: CAD 8.7B - FY2017: CAD 10B - FY2018: CAD 11B - FY2019: CAD 11B - FY2020: CAD 12B - FY2021: CAD 14B - FY2022: CAD 17B - FY2023: CAD 10B - FY2024: CAD 8.3B - FY2025: CAD 20B ### moat: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 17.0% - Required median return: 12.0% - Return uses tangible common equity: Yes - Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 11.1% - Years with reported combined ratio: 0 Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 16.3% - FY2017: 18.4% - FY2018: 18.4% - FY2019: 16.7% - FY2020: 15.3% - FY2021: 17.2% - FY2022: 18.8% - FY2023: 11.1% - FY2024: 8.9% - FY2025: 18.9% ### economics: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 17.2% - Book return interval: 10 years - Starting book value per share: CAD 24.99 - Ending book value per share: CAD 61.97 Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 22.9% - FY2017: 12.5% - FY2018: 17.9% - FY2019: 23.3% - FY2020: 17.1% - FY2021: 13.5% - FY2022: 21.1% - FY2023: 6.0% - FY2024: 14.5% - FY2025: 24.6% ### management: pass - Tangible common book per share - Parent-total proxy for preferred equity - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.3% - Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.9% - Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -1.3% - Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0 - Book value created per share: CAD 36.98 - Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: CAD -33.14 ### accounting: pass - Financial accounting warning count: 0 - Known restatement years: 0 ## Holders - [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story The price assumes profits grow 5.8% a year forever · "Toronto-Dominion Bank Plans to Slash Costs With AI, Revives Medium-Term Growth Targets" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · net income +140.2% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.698Z; price observation 2026-10-15. The price assumes profits grow 5.8% a year forever - 2025-05-22: Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) Declares Dividends; Reports Strong Earnings Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toronto-dominion-bank-tsx-td-172011298.html)) - 2025-08-28: TD Bank, CIBC Results Echo Peers Buoyed by Lower Credit-Loss Provisions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5f53f7df-d908-3a30-ac01-33f155aa8e29/td-bank%2C-cibc-results-echo.html)) - 2025-09-29: Toronto-Dominion Bank Plans to Slash Costs With AI, Revives Medium-Term Growth Targets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toronto-dominion-bank-plans-slash-194447348.html)) - 2025-12-04: TD Bank Pushes Up Dividend After Underlying Earnings, Revenue Beat Expectations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/81a95884-7753-3082-8454-3fb485576e00/td-bank-pushes-up-dividend.html)) - 2026-02-26: TD Q1 Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates on Higher Revenue, Declares Dividend ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/td-q1-adjusted-eps-beats-120304467.html)) ### Net income · FY2025 net income +140.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276225000289/40f20251031.htm; observed 2025-12-04. - FY2016: CAD 8.7B - FY2017: CAD 10B - FY2018: CAD 11B - FY2019: CAD 11B - FY2020: CAD 12B - FY2021: CAD 14B - FY2022: CAD 17B - FY2023: CAD 10B - FY2024: CAD 8.3B - FY2025: CAD 20B ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in diversified banking; annual sales are CAD 67.8 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276225000289/40f20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-04); FY2025: revenue 67780000000. ### Why customers stay It earns 17% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-04); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.16296490997502958],[2017,0.1840600364403875],[2018,0.18397388929594352],[2019,0.1673360499545601],[2020,0.1525463752525385],[2021,0.1724586622147478],[2022,0.18780626531326566],[2023,0.11103883216829478],[2024,0.08916528172411944],[2025,0.18942885866575618]]; median 0.16989735608465395. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CAD 20.8 billion of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,3808000000],[2017,4211000000],[2018,4634000000],[2019,5157000000],[2020,3660000000],[2021,5555000000],[2022,6665000000],[2023,5825000000],[2024,7160000000],[2025,7663000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276225000289/40f20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 20835000000 CAD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own <0.1% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TD.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.04 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes profits grow 5.8% a year forever. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-04); Price 170.02; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 7.091358966137595; discount 0.1; growth 0.05829103066617108. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share) - 2016-10: CAD 60.86 per share - 2016-11: CAD 63.57 per share - 2016-12: CAD 66.22 per share - 2017-01: CAD 67.41 per share - 2017-02: CAD 68.46 per share - 2017-03: CAD 66.61 per share - 2017-04: CAD 64.23 per share - 2017-05: CAD 64.40 per share - 2017-06: CAD 65.35 per share - 2017-07: CAD 64.27 per share - 2017-08: CAD 67.06 per share - 2017-09: CAD 70.25 per share - 2017-10: CAD 73.34 per share - 2017-11: CAD 73.24 per share - 2017-12: CAD 73.65 per share - 2018-01: CAD 74.82 per share - 2018-02: CAD 74.00 per share - 2018-03: CAD 73.11 per share - 2018-04: CAD 72.11 per share - 2018-05: CAD 75.70 per share - 2018-06: CAD 76.09 per share - 2018-07: CAD 77.17 per share - 2018-08: CAD 78.65 per share - 2018-09: CAD 78.49 per share - 2018-10: CAD 73.03 per share - 2018-11: CAD 73.56 per share - 2018-12: CAD 67.86 per share - 2019-01: CAD 74.00 per share - 2019-02: CAD 75.46 per share - 2019-03: CAD 72.52 per share - 2019-04: CAD 76.42 per share - 2019-05: CAD 73.90 per share - 2019-06: CAD 76.52 per share - 2019-07: CAD 77.15 per share - 2019-08: CAD 72.20 per share - 2019-09: CAD 77.25 per share - 2019-10: CAD 75.21 per share - 2019-11: CAD 76.59 per share - 2019-12: CAD 72.83 per share - 2020-01: CAD 73.14 per share - 2020-02: CAD 69.04 per share - 2020-03: CAD 59.83 per share - 2020-04: CAD 58.16 per share - 2020-05: CAD 58.98 per share - 2020-06: CAD 60.59 per share - 2020-07: CAD 59.27 per share - 2020-08: CAD 65.07 per share - 2020-09: CAD 61.65 per share - 2020-10: CAD 58.78 per share - 2020-11: CAD 69.28 per share - 2020-12: CAD 71.92 per share - 2021-01: CAD 72.46 per share - 2021-02: CAD 77.14 per share - 2021-03: CAD 81.96 per share - 2021-04: CAD 84.50 per share - 2021-05: CAD 86.90 per share - 2021-06: CAD 86.87 per share - 2021-07: CAD 82.95 per share - 2021-08: CAD 81.93 per share - 2021-09: CAD 83.85 per share - 2021-10: CAD 89.84 per share - 2021-11: CAD 90.15 per share - 2021-12: CAD 96.98 per share - 2022-01: CAD 101.81 per share - 2022-02: CAD 102.28 per share - 2022-03: CAD 99.19 per share - 2022-04: CAD 92.79 per share - 2022-05: CAD 96.66 per share - 2022-06: CAD 84.41 per share - 2022-07: CAD 83.18 per share - 2022-08: CAD 84.49 per share - 2022-09: CAD 84.72 per share - 2022-10: CAD 87.19 per share - 2022-11: CAD 89.53 per share - 2022-12: CAD 87.67 per share - 2023-01: CAD 92.06 per share - 2023-02: CAD 90.85 per share - 2023-03: CAD 80.95 per share - 2023-04: CAD 82.07 per share - 2023-05: CAD 76.84 per share - 2023-06: CAD 82.11 per share - 2023-07: CAD 86.96 per share - 2023-08: CAD 82.42 per share - 2023-09: CAD 81.83 per share - 2023-10: CAD 77.46 per share - 2023-11: CAD 82.74 per share - 2023-12: CAD 85.62 per share - 2024-01: CAD 81.67 per share - 2024-02: CAD 81.49 per share - 2024-03: CAD 81.75 per share - 2024-04: CAD 81.67 per share - 2024-05: CAD 76.20 per share - 2024-06: CAD 75.20 per share - 2024-07: CAD 81.53 per share - 2024-08: CAD 80.75 per share - 2024-09: CAD 85.52 per share - 2024-10: CAD 76.97 per share - 2024-11: CAD 79.23 per share - 2024-12: CAD 76.53 per share - 2025-01: CAD 82.91 per share - 2025-02: CAD 86.64 per share - 2025-03: CAD 86.23 per share - 2025-04: CAD 88.09 per share - 2025-05: CAD 94.77 per share - 2025-06: CAD 100.16 per share - 2025-07: CAD 100.92 per share - 2025-08: CAD 103.12 per share - 2025-09: CAD 111.28 per share - 2025-10: CAD 115.16 per share - 2025-11: CAD 117.65 per share - 2025-12: CAD 129.36 per share - 2026-01: CAD 127.26 per share - 2026-02: CAD 132.88 per share - 2026-03: CAD 129.92 per share - 2026-04: CAD 146.33 per share - 2026-05: CAD 157.75 per share - 2026-06: CAD 172.44 per share - 2026-07: CAD 168.04 per share - 2026-08: CAD 167.67 per share - 2026-09: CAD 167.33 per share - 2026-10: CAD 167.83 per share ## Annual estimated value (CAD per share) - FY2016: low CAD 79.81 per share, central CAD 99.76 per share, high CAD 133.01 per share - FY2017: low CAD 79.21 per share, central CAD 99.01 per share, high CAD 132.02 per share - FY2018: low CAD 85.05 per share, central CAD 106.31 per share, high CAD 141.75 per share - FY2019: low CAD 97.47 per share, central CAD 121.84 per share, high CAD 162.45 per share - FY2020: low CAD 71.65 per share, central CAD 78.81 per share, high CAD 87.57 per share - FY2021: low CAD 108.55 per share, central CAD 135.68 per share, high CAD 180.91 per share - FY2022: low CAD 122.47 per share, central CAD 153.09 per share, high CAD 204.12 per share - FY2023: low CAD 113.66 per share, central CAD 142.07 per share, high CAD 189.43 per share - FY2024: low CAD 118.15 per share, central CAD 147.68 per share, high CAD 196.91 per share - FY2025: low CAD 140.38 per share, central CAD 175.48 per share, high CAD 233.97 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/947263/000156276225000289/40f20251031.htm); period 2025-10-31, filed 2025-12-04. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
TD · TO
S&P/TSX 60
A wonderful business at a fair price
Passes the quality tests.
Profits were positive in 10 years (at least 9 needed).
Earned a median 17% on tangible equity (minimum 12%), and the second-worst year 11.1% (minimum 5%).
Book value plus dividends grew 17.2% a year (minimum 7%).
Ordinary share growth was -0.9% over the full period and -1.3% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).
0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 7.36 CAD.
| Value range | CAD 141.83 – CAD 236.38 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value CAD 177.28 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 170.02 / 177.28 = 4.1% |
| Return / year | About 10.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Book CAD 62.60/share; ROE 17.3%; first payout CAD 7.09/share, growing 6.0% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied). |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |