# TFI International (TFII.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TFII

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:20.864Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $114.33 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $97.07 per share, central $110.41 per share, high $128.16 per share. Buy at or below the central value $110.41 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:20.864Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.8% at the stated quote. About 9.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 12.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.4%

- FY2017: 16.0%

- FY2018: 21.7%

- FY2019: 11.9%

- FY2020: 19.3%

- FY2021: 28.1%

- FY2022: 32.0%

- FY2023: 18.1%

- FY2024: 14.5%

- FY2025: 14.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.31×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.16×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.15×

- FY2024: 1.43×

- FY2025: 2.09×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.0% vs 14.5%

- Per-share earnings: 1.24 to 5.20 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $6.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 19.6%

- Per-share value change: $3.96

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.20

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.56

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.24

- FY2017: $1.38

- FY2018: $2.45

- FY2019: $2.80

- FY2020: $3.03

- FY2021: $7.91

- FY2022: $9.02

- FY2023: $5.80

- FY2024: $4.96

- FY2025: $5.20

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -12.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.73×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.15×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.4%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -6.2%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -8.7%

- FY2021: -1.7%

- FY2022: -2.7%

- FY2023: -8.4%

- FY2024: -9.0%

- FY2025: -12.4%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since Mar 2024 · "Weak LTL market shrinks TFI International LTL revenue" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +31.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:41.092Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-30: TFI International Posts Lower Third-Quarter Earnings and Revenue; Quarterly Dividend Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tfi-international-posts-lower-third-203907325.html))

- 2026-02-18: Weak LTL market shrinks TFI International LTL revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weak-ltl-market-shrinks-tfi-085445203.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +31.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: $4.0B 

- FY2017: $4.8B 

- FY2018: $5.1B 

- FY2019: $4.0B 

- FY2020: $3.8B 

- FY2021: $7.2B 

- FY2022: $8.8B 

- FY2023: $7.5B 

- FY2024: $8.4B 

- FY2025: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 12.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 8.9% 

- FY2017: 8.4% 

- FY2018: 13.5% 

- FY2019: 12.7% 

- FY2020: 15.2% 

- FY2021: 15.9% 

- FY2022: 17.8% 

- FY2023: 16.8% 

- FY2024: 14.9% 

- FY2025: 12.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 11 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 11008182374; grossProfit 1345003312; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TFII.US: TFI International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Truckload (TL), and Logistics segments. The Less-Than-Truckload segment is involved in the pickup, consolidation, transportation, and delivery of smaller loads. The Truckload segment offers expedited transportation, flatbed, tank, container, and dedicated services. This segment also carries full loads directly from the customer to the destination using a closed van or specialized equipment. The Logistics segment provides asset-light logistics services, including brokerage, freight forwarding, and transportation management, as well as small package parcel delivery. As of December 31, 2025, it operates 12,927 trucks, 40,687 trailers, and 6,194 independent contractors. The company was formerly known as TransForce Inc. and changed its name to TFI International Inc. in December 2016. TFI International Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12.2% to 16.8% during 2023–25; it earns 17.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1236407623918309],[2017,0.16027285692438512],[2018,0.2170186694705665],[2019,0.1187420228828123],[2020,0.19340832378443326],[2021,0.2807565435012345],[2022,0.32037902287665904],[2023,0.18132398852993284],[2024,0.14503697660335993],[2025,0.14406295745654762]]; median 0.17079842272715898. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.15899844732217436],[2022,0.17848960072696812],[2023,0.16824410360785766]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 338.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 83533963; owner earnings 176971206. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 207732007; owner earnings 184083573. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 234004390; owner earnings 238337084. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 268810429.7; owner earnings 272986369.3. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 144375000; owner earnings 430529000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 275799000; owner earnings 871638000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 356944000; owner earnings 896881000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 368193640; owner earnings 578658360. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 399093000; owner earnings 605460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 381456067; owner earnings 904477540. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,64538474],[2017,54883499],[2018,54401151],[2019,61781255.02],[2020,67604000],[2021,85386000],[2022,97321000],[2023,123315738],[2024,127498000],[2025,210945678]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 338855345 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 23.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.006235351205207273. Price 114.33; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.3256559952634408 → FY2025 10.843193931592793. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $22.54 per share

- 2016-11: $25.90 per share

- 2016-12: $26.15 per share

- 2017-01: $26.99 per share

- 2017-02: $24.99 per share

- 2017-03: $23.71 per share

- 2017-04: $21.40 per share

- 2017-05: $20.31 per share

- 2017-06: $21.24 per share

- 2017-07: $23.59 per share

- 2017-08: $24.27 per share

- 2017-09: $25.49 per share

- 2017-10: $24.18 per share

- 2017-11: $24.95 per share

- 2017-12: $24.88 per share

- 2018-01: $25.95 per share

- 2018-02: $25.49 per share

- 2018-03: $25.63 per share

- 2018-04: $28.37 per share

- 2018-05: $30.14 per share

- 2018-06: $30.98 per share

- 2018-07: $32.83 per share

- 2018-08: $37.06 per share

- 2018-09: $36.31 per share

- 2018-10: $33.17 per share

- 2018-11: $32.93 per share

- 2018-12: $25.94 per share

- 2019-01: $29.36 per share

- 2019-02: $30.88 per share

- 2019-03: $29.68 per share

- 2019-04: $33.66 per share

- 2019-05: $30.49 per share

- 2019-06: $30.26 per share

- 2019-07: $31.81 per share

- 2019-08: $28.61 per share

- 2019-09: $30.67 per share

- 2019-10: $31.46 per share

- 2019-11: $33.38 per share

- 2019-12: $33.80 per share

- 2020-01: $31.96 per share

- 2020-02: $31.05 per share

- 2020-03: $22.09 per share

- 2020-04: $27.75 per share

- 2020-05: $30.27 per share

- 2020-06: $35.45 per share

- 2020-07: $43.39 per share

- 2020-08: $44.24 per share

- 2020-09: $41.83 per share

- 2020-10: $44.56 per share

- 2020-11: $50.81 per share

- 2020-12: $51.58 per share

- 2021-01: $66.44 per share

- 2021-02: $69.82 per share

- 2021-03: $74.76 per share

- 2021-04: $87.65 per share

- 2021-05: $95.88 per share

- 2021-06: $91.19 per share

- 2021-07: $112.02 per share

- 2021-08: $113.10 per share

- 2021-09: $102.18 per share

- 2021-10: $110.83 per share

- 2021-11: $101.75 per share

- 2021-12: $112.11 per share

- 2022-01: $96.30 per share

- 2022-02: $104.29 per share

- 2022-03: $106.51 per share

- 2022-04: $80.48 per share

- 2022-05: $82.05 per share

- 2022-06: $80.28 per share

- 2022-07: $99.93 per share

- 2022-08: $99.79 per share

- 2022-09: $90.48 per share

- 2022-10: $91.03 per share

- 2022-11: $108.55 per share

- 2022-12: $100.24 per share

- 2023-01: $111.30 per share

- 2023-02: $122.04 per share

- 2023-03: $119.29 per share

- 2023-04: $107.80 per share

- 2023-05: $105.28 per share

- 2023-06: $113.96 per share

- 2023-07: $128.35 per share

- 2023-08: $136.36 per share

- 2023-09: $128.41 per share

- 2023-10: $110.62 per share

- 2023-11: $118.18 per share

- 2023-12: $135.98 per share

- 2024-01: $131.47 per share

- 2024-02: $147.82 per share

- 2024-03: $159.46 per share

- 2024-04: $130.29 per share

- 2024-05: $132.28 per share

- 2024-06: $145.16 per share

- 2024-07: $155.75 per share

- 2024-08: $148.13 per share

- 2024-09: $136.89 per share

- 2024-10: $133.82 per share

- 2024-11: $151.68 per share

- 2024-12: $135.09 per share

- 2025-01: $131.81 per share

- 2025-02: $90.65 per share

- 2025-03: $77.45 per share

- 2025-04: $81.33 per share

- 2025-05: $86.03 per share

- 2025-06: $89.67 per share

- 2025-07: $87.17 per share

- 2025-08: $94.81 per share

- 2025-09: $88.06 per share

- 2025-10: $89.73 per share

- 2025-11: $87.49 per share

- 2025-12: $103.35 per share

- 2026-01: $107.55 per share

- 2026-02: $119.72 per share

- 2026-03: $108.63 per share

- 2026-04: $143.18 per share

- 2026-05: $154.12 per share

- 2026-06: $143.57 per share

- 2026-07: $135.02 per share

- 2026-08: $134.19 per share

- 2026-09: $119.86 per share

- 2026-10: $114.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $20.55 per share, central $23.38 per share, high $27.15 per share

- FY2017: low $24.12 per share, central $27.45 per share, high $31.88 per share

- FY2018: low $28.14 per share, central $32.02 per share, high $37.18 per share

- FY2019: low $22.48 per share, central $25.58 per share, high $29.71 per share

- FY2020: low $21.14 per share, central $24.06 per share, high $27.94 per share

- FY2021: low $56.58 per share, central $64.39 per share, high $74.77 per share

- FY2022: low $107.42 per share, central $122.23 per share, high $141.95 per share

- FY2023: low $98.23 per share, central $111.49 per share, high $129.13 per share

- FY2024: low $109.58 per share, central $124.69 per share, high $144.80 per share

- FY2025: low $118.52 per share, central $134.86 per share, high $156.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1588823/000119312526054689/tfii-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.