# Target (TGT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TGT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:22.009Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $156.63 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $84.13 per share, central $94.74 per share, high $108.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value $94.74 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:22.009Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.0% at the stated quote. About 7.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.05×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.06×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 15.5%

- FY2018: 15.5%

- FY2019: 14.5%

- FY2020: 15.1%

- FY2021: 25.2%

- FY2022: 30.7%

- FY2023: 11.4%

- FY2024: 15.6%

- FY2025: 14.8%

- FY2026: 13.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $17B

- Net income, five-year total: $22B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 10.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.35×

- FY2024: 0.52×

- FY2025: 1.02×

- FY2026: 0.84×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.5% vs 14.8%

- Per-share earnings: 5.30 to 8.86 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Market cap gain: $12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 6.6%

- Per-share value change: $3.56

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $8.86

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 3.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $450M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $38B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $4.69

- FY2018: $5.30

- FY2019: $5.51

- FY2020: $6.36

- FY2021: $8.64

- FY2022: $14.10

- FY2023: $5.98

- FY2024: $8.94

- FY2025: $8.86

- FY2026: $8.13

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.19×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.77×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.2%

- FY2018: -9.9%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -9.0%

- FY2021: -12.0%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -2.3%

- FY2024: -8.1%

- FY2025: -5.7%

- FY2026: -4.8%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 40% since Oct 2021 · "Target (TGT) Warns of Full-Year Sales Decline After Discretionary Slump and DEI Backlash" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:41.361Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-20: Target struggles with turnaround as Q2 sales drop ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-struggles-turnaround-q2-sales-122200585.html))

- 2025-09-22: TGT Faces Earnings Pressure as Tariffs and Lower Spend Bite Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tgt-faces-earnings-pressure-tariffs-123500197.html))

- 2026-02-23: Target Faces Muted 2026 Guidance as Investment Cycle Looms, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-faces-muted-2026-guidance-154442016.html))

- 2026-03-04: Target Stock Rises 7% After Unveiling Bold Multi-Year Growth Strategy ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-stock-rises-7-unveiling-150400324.html))

- 2026-07-02: Target (TGT) Raises Full Year Sales Outlook After Broad Based Rebound ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/target-tgt-raises-full-sales-151352111.html))

- 2026-08-19: Target Q2 Earnings Beat on 5.3% Sales Growth, FY26 Guidance Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/target-q2-earnings-beat-5-152500476.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +2.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-11.

- FY2018: $73B 

- FY2019: $75B 

- FY2020: $78B 

- FY2021: $94B 

- FY2022: $106B 

- FY2023: $109B 

- FY2024: $107B 

- FY2025: $107B 

- FY2026: $105B 

- FY2027: $108B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 27.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-11.

- FY2017: 30.1% 

- FY2018: 29.7% 

- FY2019: 29.3% 

- FY2020: 29.8% 

- FY2021: 29.3% 

- FY2022: 29.3% 

- FY2023: 24.6% 

- FY2024: 27.5% 

- FY2025: 28.2% 

- FY2026: 27.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in discount stores; annual sales are USD 104.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-11); FY2026: revenue 104780000000; grossProfit 29269000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TGT.US: Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies. In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.5% to 28.2% during 2024–26; it earns 15.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 27.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.15547206673625574],[2018,0.15488166172897042],[2019,0.14525450797630265],[2020,0.1505376478028496],[2021,0.2523683785064101],[2022,0.3066285868176502],[2023,0.1140366802011918],[2024,0.15565570597731399],[2025,0.14848945690897808],[2026,0.13109923627762596]]; median 0.15270965476591. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 408 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1547000000; owner earnings 3505000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2018: growth capex 57000000; upkeep 2476000000; owner earnings 2914000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01956074124914207.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2019: growth capex 939647414.7295971; upkeep 2576352585.270403; owner earnings 2834647414.729597. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3314865227495082.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2020: growth capex 423000000; upkeep 2604000000; owner earnings 3281000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12892410850350502.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2021: growth capex 164000000; upkeep 2485000000; owner earnings 4368000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.037545787545787544.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2022: growth capex 902000000; upkeep 2642000000; owner earnings 6946000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12985891160380075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2023: growth capex 1024332468.961052; upkeep 4503667531.038948; owner earnings 976332468.961052. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.049163580569105.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4806000000; owner earnings 2133000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2891000000; owner earnings 4181000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-11); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 3727000000; owner earnings 3112000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); Dividend observations: [[2017,1348000000],[2018,1338000000],[2019,1335000000],[2020,1330000000],[2021,1343000000],[2022,1548000000],[2023,1836000000],[2024,2011000000],[2025,2046000000],[2026,2053000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-11); FY2026: cash repurchases 408000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TGT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.269 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our Roundel retail media network may not maintain or grow advertising revenue" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-11); Our Roundel retail media network may not maintain or grow advertising revenue

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09616776606415234. Price 156.63; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 6.538157686838363 → FY2026 6.830553116769096. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $68.73 per share

- 2016-11: $77.24 per share

- 2016-12: $72.23 per share

- 2017-01: $64.48 per share

- 2017-02: $58.77 per share

- 2017-03: $55.19 per share

- 2017-04: $55.85 per share

- 2017-05: $55.15 per share

- 2017-06: $52.29 per share

- 2017-07: $56.67 per share

- 2017-08: $54.53 per share

- 2017-09: $59.01 per share

- 2017-10: $59.04 per share

- 2017-11: $59.90 per share

- 2017-12: $65.25 per share

- 2018-01: $75.22 per share

- 2018-02: $75.41 per share

- 2018-03: $69.43 per share

- 2018-04: $72.60 per share

- 2018-05: $72.89 per share

- 2018-06: $76.12 per share

- 2018-07: $80.68 per share

- 2018-08: $87.50 per share

- 2018-09: $88.21 per share

- 2018-10: $83.63 per share

- 2018-11: $70.96 per share

- 2018-12: $66.09 per share

- 2019-01: $73.00 per share

- 2019-02: $72.64 per share

- 2019-03: $80.26 per share

- 2019-04: $77.42 per share

- 2019-05: $80.45 per share

- 2019-06: $86.61 per share

- 2019-07: $86.40 per share

- 2019-08: $107.04 per share

- 2019-09: $106.91 per share

- 2019-10: $106.91 per share

- 2019-11: $125.01 per share

- 2019-12: $128.21 per share

- 2020-01: $110.74 per share

- 2020-02: $103.00 per share

- 2020-03: $92.97 per share

- 2020-04: $109.74 per share

- 2020-05: $122.33 per share

- 2020-06: $119.93 per share

- 2020-07: $125.88 per share

- 2020-08: $151.21 per share

- 2020-09: $157.42 per share

- 2020-10: $152.22 per share

- 2020-11: $179.53 per share

- 2020-12: $176.53 per share

- 2021-01: $181.17 per share

- 2021-02: $183.44 per share

- 2021-03: $198.07 per share

- 2021-04: $207.26 per share

- 2021-05: $226.92 per share

- 2021-06: $241.74 per share

- 2021-07: $261.05 per share

- 2021-08: $246.98 per share

- 2021-09: $228.77 per share

- 2021-10: $259.62 per share

- 2021-11: $243.84 per share

- 2021-12: $231.44 per share

- 2022-01: $220.43 per share

- 2022-02: $199.77 per share

- 2022-03: $212.22 per share

- 2022-04: $228.65 per share

- 2022-05: $161.88 per share

- 2022-06: $141.23 per share

- 2022-07: $163.38 per share

- 2022-08: $160.34 per share

- 2022-09: $148.39 per share

- 2022-10: $164.25 per share

- 2022-11: $167.07 per share

- 2022-12: $149.04 per share

- 2023-01: $172.14 per share

- 2023-02: $168.50 per share

- 2023-03: $165.63 per share

- 2023-04: $157.75 per share

- 2023-05: $130.93 per share

- 2023-06: $131.90 per share

- 2023-07: $136.47 per share

- 2023-08: $126.55 per share

- 2023-09: $110.57 per share

- 2023-10: $110.79 per share

- 2023-11: $133.81 per share

- 2023-12: $142.42 per share

- 2024-01: $139.08 per share

- 2024-02: $152.92 per share

- 2024-03: $177.21 per share

- 2024-04: $160.98 per share

- 2024-05: $156.16 per share

- 2024-06: $148.04 per share

- 2024-07: $150.41 per share

- 2024-08: $153.62 per share

- 2024-09: $155.86 per share

- 2024-10: $150.04 per share

- 2024-11: $132.31 per share

- 2024-12: $135.18 per share

- 2025-01: $137.91 per share

- 2025-02: $124.24 per share

- 2025-03: $104.36 per share

- 2025-04: $96.70 per share

- 2025-05: $94.01 per share

- 2025-06: $98.65 per share

- 2025-07: $100.50 per share

- 2025-08: $95.98 per share

- 2025-09: $89.70 per share

- 2025-10: $92.72 per share

- 2025-11: $90.62 per share

- 2025-12: $97.75 per share

- 2026-01: $105.47 per share

- 2026-02: $113.79 per share

- 2026-03: $121.20 per share

- 2026-04: $129.75 per share

- 2026-05: $127.07 per share

- 2026-06: $130.61 per share

- 2026-07: $144.49 per share

- 2026-08: $160.88 per share

- 2026-09: $156.69 per share

- 2026-10: $151.99 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $55.85 per share, central $63.29 per share, high $73.19 per share

- FY2018: low $60.04 per share, central $68.02 per share, high $78.64 per share

- FY2019: low $62.00 per share, central $70.53 per share, high $81.90 per share

- FY2020: low $71.52 per share, central $81.11 per share, high $93.88 per share

- FY2021: low $98.13 per share, central $109.85 per share, high $125.45 per share

- FY2022: low $106.47 per share, central $120.09 per share, high $138.22 per share

- FY2023: low $107.91 per share, central $122.77 per share, high $142.56 per share

- FY2024: low $120.40 per share, central $149.99 per share, high $174.48 per share

- FY2025: low $113.54 per share, central $140.01 per share, high $162.43 per share

- FY2026: low $82.11 per share, central $92.40 per share, high $106.10 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:07.635Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000016/tgt-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.