# The Hanover Insurance Group (THG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/THG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:22.739Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $228.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $119.53 per share, central $149.41 per share, high $199.22 per share. Buy at or below the central value $149.41 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:22.739Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 8

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.50×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $155M

- FY2017: $186M

- FY2018: $391M

- FY2019: $425M

- FY2020: $359M

- FY2021: $419M

- FY2022: $116M

- FY2023: $35M

- FY2024: $426M

- FY2025: $663M

### moat: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Underwriting economics assessed through return on tangible common equity

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 13.4%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 5.4%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.2%

- FY2017: 7.8%

- FY2018: 16.8%

- FY2019: 16.6%

- FY2020: 12.6%

- FY2021: 14.2%

- FY2022: 5.4%

- FY2023: 1.6%

- FY2024: 16.1%

- FY2025: 19.6%

### economics: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 9.2%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $63.49

- Ending book value per share: $97.85

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.1%

- FY2017: 8.4%

- FY2018: 1.7%

- FY2019: 18.4%

- FY2020: 20.6%

- FY2021: 5.8%

- FY2022: -21.5%

- FY2023: 10.7%

- FY2024: 19.3%

- FY2025: 29.9%

### management: pass

- Common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.9%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 2.37×

- Book value created per share: $34.36

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $14.48

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 96

- FY2017: 96

- FY2018: 96

- FY2019: 91

- FY2020: 85

- FY2021: 81

- FY2022: 81

- FY2023: 81

- FY2024: 81

- FY2025: 81

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 7.4% a year forever · net income +55.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:41.530Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 7.4% a year forever

- 2025-08-13: THG Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion Driven by Diversified Portfolio and Tech Investments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thg-q2-deep-dive-margin-034103723.html))

- 2026-02-04: THG Q4 Deep Dive: Margin Gains and Selective Growth Drive Positive Market Reaction ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thg-q4-deep-dive-margin-185047760.html))

- 2026-04-30: Hanover Insurance Q1 Earnings Top Estimates on Lower Cat Losses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hanover-insurance-q1-earnings-top-191300255.html))

- 2026-07-29: THG Q2 Earnings Beat on Personal Lines Gains, Revenues Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/thg-q2-earnings-beat-personal-180900689.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +55.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/944695/000119312526060983/thg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-20.

- FY2016: $155M 

- FY2017: $186M 

- FY2018: $391M 

- FY2019: $425M 

- FY2020: $359M 

- FY2021: $419M 

- FY2022: $116M 

- FY2023: $35M 

- FY2024: $426M 

- FY2025: $663M 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance property & casualty; annual sales are USD 6.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/944695/000119312526060983/thg-20251231.htm#000119312526060983 (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: revenue 6594400000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 13.4% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.07196547884187082],[2017,0.07794382351709991],[2018,0.16816481011569395],[2019,0.16614554834675213],[2020,0.12609857273430358],[2021,0.14235686114511084],[2022,0.05422080957277742],[2023,0.015541760225421565],[2024,0.16092475067996373],[2025,0.19631374640708804]]; median 0.1342277169397072. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 129.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Dividend observations: [[2016,80400000],[2017,86800000],[2018,94300000],[2019,386200000],[2020,99500000],[2021,102200000],[2022,108900000],[2023,117200000],[2024,124100000],[2025,130600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/944695/000119312526060983/thg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20); FY2025: cash repurchases 129199999 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); THG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.9530000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/944695/000119312526060983/thg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-20);  including price; competition; volatile and unpredictable developments, such as weather conditions, catastrophes and other disasters; legal and regulatory developments affecting pricing, underwriting, policy coverage and other aspects of doing business, as well as insurer and insureds’ liability; extra-contractual liability; attorney involvement in claims matters; size of jury awards; civil unrest; acts of terrorism; fluctuations in interest rates and the value of investments; and other general economic conditions and trends, such as potential recessionary pressures and inflationary pressure, tariffs, or unemployment, that may affect the adequacy of reserves or the demand for insurance products. Our investment portfolio and its future returns are impacted by the capital markets and current economic conditions, which affect our liquidity, realized losses and impairments, credit default levels, our ability to hold such investments until recovery and other factors. Additionally, the economic conditions in geographic locations where we conduct business, especially those locations where our business is concentrated, affect the growth and profitability of our business. The regulatory environments in those locations, including any pricing, underwriting or product restrictions, shared market mechanisms or mandatory pooling arrangements, and other conditions, such as our agency relationships, affect the growth and profitability of our business. Our loss and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves are based on estimates, principally involving case assessments and actuarial projections, at a given time, of what we expect the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on facts and circumstances then known, predictions of future events, estimates of future trends in claims frequency and severity and judicial theories of liability, social inflation, costs of repairs and replacement, legislative activity, legal system abuse, and other factors. We regularly reassess our estimate of loss reserves and LAE, both for current and past years, and resulting changes have and will affect our reported profitability and financial position.

Pressure from litigation trends, legal system abuse, and general and social inflation in the U.S. economy in recent years, along with other factors outside our control, have resulted in higher claims costs. The severity, duration, and long-term effects of such uncertainties may affect the property and casualty insurance industry, our business, and our financial results over the intermediate and long-term.

Reference is also made to “Risk Factors” in Part I – Item 1A.

3

Table of Contents

LINES OF BUSINESS

Core Commercial

Our Core Commercial segment generated $2.4 billion, or 36.4%, of consolidated operating revenues and $2.3 billion, or 36.0%, of net premiums written, for the year ended December 31, 2025.

The f

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 7.4% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-20); Price 228.42; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 5.976509621027986; discount 0.1; growth 0.07383543638460736. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $76.19 per share

- 2016-11: $86.59 per share

- 2016-12: $91.01 per share

- 2017-01: $83.94 per share

- 2017-02: $90.02 per share

- 2017-03: $90.06 per share

- 2017-04: $88.27 per share

- 2017-05: $83.39 per share

- 2017-06: $88.63 per share

- 2017-07: $94.86 per share

- 2017-08: $98.18 per share

- 2017-09: $96.93 per share

- 2017-10: $98.38 per share

- 2017-11: $107.60 per share

- 2017-12: $108.08 per share

- 2018-01: $113.15 per share

- 2018-02: $107.91 per share

- 2018-03: $117.89 per share

- 2018-04: $114.85 per share

- 2018-05: $121.24 per share

- 2018-06: $119.56 per share

- 2018-07: $125.42 per share

- 2018-08: $122.49 per share

- 2018-09: $123.37 per share

- 2018-10: $111.38 per share

- 2018-11: $114.71 per share

- 2018-12: $116.77 per share

- 2019-01: $114.04 per share

- 2019-02: $118.71 per share

- 2019-03: $114.17 per share

- 2019-04: $120.61 per share

- 2019-05: $122.16 per share

- 2019-06: $128.30 per share

- 2019-07: $129.71 per share

- 2019-08: $133.15 per share

- 2019-09: $135.54 per share

- 2019-10: $131.71 per share

- 2019-11: $135.93 per share

- 2019-12: $136.67 per share

- 2020-01: $138.58 per share

- 2020-02: $118.54 per share

- 2020-03: $90.58 per share

- 2020-04: $100.38 per share

- 2020-05: $100.35 per share

- 2020-06: $101.33 per share

- 2020-07: $101.88 per share

- 2020-08: $102.49 per share

- 2020-09: $93.18 per share

- 2020-10: $95.66 per share

- 2020-11: $112.35 per share

- 2020-12: $116.92 per share

- 2021-01: $112.47 per share

- 2021-02: $115.35 per share

- 2021-03: $129.46 per share

- 2021-04: $138.31 per share

- 2021-05: $139.49 per share

- 2021-06: $135.64 per share

- 2021-07: $135.90 per share

- 2021-08: $141.31 per share

- 2021-09: $129.62 per share

- 2021-10: $126.00 per share

- 2021-11: $121.75 per share

- 2021-12: $131.06 per share

- 2022-01: $137.96 per share

- 2022-02: $139.51 per share

- 2022-03: $149.52 per share

- 2022-04: $146.82 per share

- 2022-05: $146.60 per share

- 2022-06: $146.25 per share

- 2022-07: $136.47 per share

- 2022-08: $129.39 per share

- 2022-09: $128.14 per share

- 2022-10: $146.49 per share

- 2022-11: $147.30 per share

- 2022-12: $135.13 per share

- 2023-01: $134.58 per share

- 2023-02: $139.48 per share

- 2023-03: $128.50 per share

- 2023-04: $119.56 per share

- 2023-05: $111.46 per share

- 2023-06: $113.03 per share

- 2023-07: $113.48 per share

- 2023-08: $106.72 per share

- 2023-09: $110.98 per share

- 2023-10: $117.21 per share

- 2023-11: $124.30 per share

- 2023-12: $121.42 per share

- 2024-01: $132.01 per share

- 2024-02: $131.47 per share

- 2024-03: $136.17 per share

- 2024-04: $129.82 per share

- 2024-05: $131.93 per share

- 2024-06: $125.44 per share

- 2024-07: $137.49 per share

- 2024-08: $146.99 per share

- 2024-09: $148.11 per share

- 2024-10: $148.33 per share

- 2024-11: $165.01 per share

- 2024-12: $154.66 per share

- 2025-01: $153.09 per share

- 2025-02: $170.53 per share

- 2025-03: $173.95 per share

- 2025-04: $166.10 per share

- 2025-05: $175.98 per share

- 2025-06: $169.87 per share

- 2025-07: $171.63 per share

- 2025-08: $173.48 per share

- 2025-09: $181.63 per share

- 2025-10: $170.88 per share

- 2025-11: $185.55 per share

- 2025-12: $182.77 per share

- 2026-01: $174.14 per share

- 2026-02: $180.63 per share

- 2026-03: $173.35 per share

- 2026-04: $187.69 per share

- 2026-05: $186.20 per share

- 2026-06: $214.12 per share

- 2026-07: $232.63 per share

- 2026-08: $226.11 per share

- 2026-09: $214.12 per share

- 2026-10: $228.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $39.07 per share, central $42.98 per share, high $47.75 per share

- FY2017: low $38.49 per share, central $42.33 per share, high $47.04 per share

- FY2018: low $43.20 per share, central $47.52 per share, high $52.80 per share

- FY2019: low $56.59 per share, central $70.74 per share, high $94.32 per share

- FY2020: low $103.00 per share, central $128.75 per share, high $171.66 per share

- FY2021: low $116.37 per share, central $145.46 per share, high $193.95 per share

- FY2022: low $85.35 per share, central $106.69 per share, high $142.25 per share

- FY2023: low $86.99 per share, central $108.74 per share, high $144.99 per share

- FY2024: low $108.98 per share, central $136.22 per share, high $181.63 per share

- FY2025: low $138.55 per share, central $173.18 per share, high $230.91 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/944695/000119312526060983/thg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.