# Titan Machinery (TITN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TITN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:24.179Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $22.72 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $46.08 per share, central $58.82 per share, high $68.72 per share. Buy at or below the central value $58.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:24.179Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 20.9% at the stated quote. About 20.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.02×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.00×

- FY2018: 0.00×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.00×

- FY2026: -0.00×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.3%

- FY2018: 0.1%

- FY2019: 3.3%

- FY2020: 2.5%

- FY2021: 4.3%

- FY2022: 12.0%

- FY2023: 11.9%

- FY2024: 7.7%

- FY2025: 0.3%

- FY2026: -0.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $190M

- Net income, five-year total: $188M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 6.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 45.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.36×

- FY2026: 0.72×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.1% vs 0.3%

- Per-share earnings: -0.67 to -1.63 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: $79M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $221M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: -$0.97

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.67

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$1.63

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $301M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $212M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -$0.67

- FY2018: -$0.33

- FY2019: $0.56

- FY2020: $0.64

- FY2021: $0.88

- FY2022: $2.97

- FY2023: $4.55

- FY2024: $4.93

- FY2025: -$1.63

- FY2026: -$2.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.18×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -20.1%

- FY2018: -13.5%

- FY2019: -4.3%

- FY2020: 1.3%

- FY2021: -18.8%

- FY2022: -9.8%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 7.2%

- FY2025: -5.9%

- FY2026: -11.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 50% since Feb 2023 · "Titan Machinery shares drop on margin pressure, weaker ag demand" (seekingalpha.com, Aug 2025) · sales -10.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:41.903Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-28: Titan Machinery shares drop on margin pressure, weaker ag demand ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4490153-titan-machinery-shares-drop-on-margin-pressure-weaker-ag-demand?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-03-19: Titan Machinery outlines 15–20% ag revenue decline for 2027 while projecting improved equipment margins ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4566785-titan-machinery-outlines-15-20-percent-ag-revenue-decline-for-2027-while-projecting-improved?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-27: Titan Machinery shares slip after Q2 earnings miss despite revenue beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/titan-machinery-shares-slip-q2-133040476.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -10.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409171/000162828026022376/titn-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $1.2B 

- FY2019: $1.3B 

- FY2020: $1.3B 

- FY2021: $1.4B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $2.2B 

- FY2024: $2.8B 

- FY2025: $2.7B 

- FY2026: $2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409171/000162828026022376/titn-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2017: 17.6% 

- FY2018: 17.9% 

- FY2019: 18.4% 

- FY2020: 19.2% 

- FY2021: 18.5% 

- FY2022: 19.4% 

- FY2023: 19.9% 

- FY2024: 19.3% 

- FY2025: 14.6% 

- FY2026: 15.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in industrial distribution; annual sales are USD 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409171/000162828026022376/titn-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: revenue 2427107000; grossProfit 382556000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); TITN.US: Titan Machinery Inc. owns and operates a network of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through four segments: Agriculture, Construction, Europe, and Australia. It sells new and used equipment, including agricultural and construction equipment manufactured under the CNH Industrial family of brands, as well as equipment from various other manufacturers. The company offers agricultural equipment, including machinery and attachments for use in the production of food, fiber, feed grain, feedstock, and renewable energy; and home and garden applications, as well as maintenance of commercial, residential, and government properties. It also provides construction equipment, such as heavy construction machinery, light industrial machinery for commercial and residential construction, and road and highway construction machinery. In addition, the company offers repair and maintenance services that include warranty repairs, off-site and on-site repair services, scheduling off-season maintenance services, and notifying customers of periodic service requirements; and training programs to customers, as well as sells maintenance and replacement parts. Further, the company rents equipment; and provides ancillary equipment support services, such as equipment transportation, global positioning system signal subscriptions and other precision farming products, farm data management products, and finance and insurance products. It operates in Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, the United States; Bulgaria, Germany, Romania, and Ukraine, Europe; and New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria, and Australia. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in West Fargo, North Dakota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.6% to 19.3% during 2024–26; it earns 2.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409171/000162828026022376/titn-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.0029774090116085074],[2018,0.001189038875835541],[2019,0.033128417389878616],[2020,0.024681995075972536],[2021,0.042570490655228256],[2022,0.12017485078673913],[2023,0.11897821915119121],[2024,0.0774700934796062],[2025,0.0030453752008998735],[2026,-0.0016148706038790624]]; median 0.028905206232925577. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 19% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409171/000162828026022376/titn-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.18520261163729024],[2022,0.19435880241088005],[2023,0.1990846899433578]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 12425000; owner earnings 264000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 11951000; cash acquisitions 15299000; owner earnings 23836000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.64184426917268.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 25016000; cash acquisitions 13887000; owner earnings 29238000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.474964087830905.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 20089000; cash acquisitions 6790000; owner earnings 34505000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.19678307491667874.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 5606000; upkeep 32021000; cash acquisitions 33643000; owner earnings 66047000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5942586340030585.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 12014000; upkeep 25197000; cash acquisitions 100471000; owner earnings 101868000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.1042231122629285.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 30882000; upkeep 31479000; cash acquisitions 107548000; owner earnings 110922000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.2479940859342602.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.12870517617912197. Price 22.72; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -0.8415044289706788 → FY2026 -1.712941797081062. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $9.29 per share

- 2016-11: $13.99 per share

- 2016-12: $14.57 per share

- 2017-01: $13.81 per share

- 2017-02: $14.15 per share

- 2017-03: $15.34 per share

- 2017-04: $15.85 per share

- 2017-05: $16.85 per share

- 2017-06: $17.98 per share

- 2017-07: $17.85 per share

- 2017-08: $12.90 per share

- 2017-09: $15.53 per share

- 2017-10: $14.89 per share

- 2017-11: $19.00 per share

- 2017-12: $21.17 per share

- 2018-01: $21.49 per share

- 2018-02: $19.94 per share

- 2018-03: $23.56 per share

- 2018-04: $19.32 per share

- 2018-05: $18.09 per share

- 2018-06: $15.55 per share

- 2018-07: $15.14 per share

- 2018-08: $18.06 per share

- 2018-09: $15.49 per share

- 2018-10: $14.25 per share

- 2018-11: $17.53 per share

- 2018-12: $13.15 per share

- 2019-01: $18.74 per share

- 2019-02: $19.21 per share

- 2019-03: $15.56 per share

- 2019-04: $17.20 per share

- 2019-05: $16.72 per share

- 2019-06: $20.58 per share

- 2019-07: $20.74 per share

- 2019-08: $15.06 per share

- 2019-09: $14.34 per share

- 2019-10: $16.60 per share

- 2019-11: $13.47 per share

- 2019-12: $14.78 per share

- 2020-01: $12.21 per share

- 2020-02: $10.11 per share

- 2020-03: $8.69 per share

- 2020-04: $9.40 per share

- 2020-05: $10.47 per share

- 2020-06: $10.86 per share

- 2020-07: $10.87 per share

- 2020-08: $13.50 per share

- 2020-09: $13.23 per share

- 2020-10: $14.99 per share

- 2020-11: $18.27 per share

- 2020-12: $19.55 per share

- 2021-01: $21.30 per share

- 2021-02: $24.50 per share

- 2021-03: $25.50 per share

- 2021-04: $26.11 per share

- 2021-05: $30.68 per share

- 2021-06: $30.94 per share

- 2021-07: $28.53 per share

- 2021-08: $28.72 per share

- 2021-09: $25.91 per share

- 2021-10: $28.42 per share

- 2021-11: $33.24 per share

- 2021-12: $33.69 per share

- 2022-01: $30.80 per share

- 2022-02: $28.33 per share

- 2022-03: $28.26 per share

- 2022-04: $23.58 per share

- 2022-05: $26.41 per share

- 2022-06: $22.41 per share

- 2022-07: $28.13 per share

- 2022-08: $30.78 per share

- 2022-09: $28.26 per share

- 2022-10: $34.38 per share

- 2022-11: $44.03 per share

- 2022-12: $39.73 per share

- 2023-01: $43.94 per share

- 2023-02: $45.79 per share

- 2023-03: $30.45 per share

- 2023-04: $31.35 per share

- 2023-05: $25.25 per share

- 2023-06: $29.50 per share

- 2023-07: $31.92 per share

- 2023-08: $31.02 per share

- 2023-09: $26.58 per share

- 2023-10: $24.84 per share

- 2023-11: $22.86 per share

- 2023-12: $28.88 per share

- 2024-01: $26.73 per share

- 2024-02: $25.23 per share

- 2024-03: $24.81 per share

- 2024-04: $22.26 per share

- 2024-05: $18.82 per share

- 2024-06: $15.90 per share

- 2024-07: $17.83 per share

- 2024-08: $15.11 per share

- 2024-09: $13.93 per share

- 2024-10: $13.73 per share

- 2024-11: $15.45 per share

- 2024-12: $14.13 per share

- 2025-01: $18.72 per share

- 2025-02: $17.19 per share

- 2025-03: $17.04 per share

- 2025-04: $16.59 per share

- 2025-05: $18.68 per share

- 2025-06: $19.81 per share

- 2025-07: $19.32 per share

- 2025-08: $20.00 per share

- 2025-09: $16.74 per share

- 2025-10: $16.40 per share

- 2025-11: $18.52 per share

- 2025-12: $15.04 per share

- 2026-01: $16.27 per share

- 2026-02: $19.49 per share

- 2026-03: $16.72 per share

- 2026-04: $20.91 per share

- 2026-05: $21.82 per share

- 2026-06: $21.12 per share

- 2026-07: $16.99 per share

- 2026-08: $20.57 per share

- 2026-09: $23.08 per share

- 2026-10: $22.72 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $1.49 per share, central $1.51 per share, high $1.54 per share

- FY2020: low $0.94 per share, central $0.96 per share, high $0.99 per share

- FY2021: low $15.48 per share, central $17.30 per share, high $19.72 per share

- FY2022: low $23.87 per share, central $26.47 per share, high $29.93 per share

- FY2023: low $26.38 per share, central $30.02 per share, high $34.86 per share

- FY2024: low $53.39 per share, central $62.85 per share, high $73.12 per share

- FY2025: low $52.03 per share, central $61.22 per share, high $71.22 per share

- FY2026: low $50.20 per share, central $64.07 per share, high $74.86 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409171/000162828026022376/titn-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.