# The TJX Companies (TJX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TJX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:24.475Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $144.58 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $71.16 per share, central $101.85 per share, high $118.97 per share. Buy at or below the central value $101.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:24.475Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- FY2026: 0.12×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.13×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 30.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 23.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 28.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 41.7%

- FY2019: 74.4%

- FY2020: 23.3%

- FY2021: 5.4%

- FY2022: 29.1%

- FY2023: 27.1%

- FY2024: 30.7%

- FY2025: 30.0%

- FY2026: 31.1%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 32.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $21B

- Net income, five-year total: $22B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 56.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.98×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 45.7% vs 30.7%

- Per-share earnings: 1.73 to 4.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Market cap gain: $117B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 11.9%

- Per-share value change: $2.53

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.26

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.85

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $33B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 45.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 30.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $1.73

- FY2018: $2.02

- FY2019: $2.43

- FY2020: $2.67

- FY2021: $0.07

- FY2022: $2.70

- FY2023: $2.97

- FY2024: $3.86

- FY2025: $4.26

- FY2026: $4.87

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -10.4%

- FY2018: -3.0%

- FY2019: -7.2%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: -14.5%

- FY2022: 0.8%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: -5.3%

- FY2025: -3.9%

- FY2026: -3.9%

## Holders

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12% a year for ten years · "Can TJX Extend Margin Gains as Freight Costs Continue to Ease?" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales +3.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:41.979Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-21: TJX Stock Drops as TJ Maxx Owner Posts Downbeat Outlook on Tariffs Hit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tjx-stock-drops-tj-maxx-133908086.html))

- 2025-08-20: TJX raises annual profit forecast on strong demand for off-price goods ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tjx-raises-annual-profit-forecast-170957576.html))

- 2025-11-19: TJX Q3 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates, Fiscal 2026 Guidance Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tjx-q3-earnings-sales-beat-160600171.html))

- 2026-02-25: TJX Posts 5% Holiday Comp Growth, Guides 2%--3% for Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tjx-posts-5-holiday-comp-180818342.html))

- 2026-07-05: TJX (TJX) Posts Strong Q1 And Raises Full Year Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tjx-tjx-posts-strong-q1-120810914.html))

- 2026-08-19: TJX's Fiscal Third Quarter Comparable Sales Guidance Lags Wall Street Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tjx-apos-fiscal-third-quarter-151721106.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +3.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2018: $36B 

- FY2019: $39B 

- FY2020: $42B 

- FY2021: $32B 

- FY2022: $49B 

- FY2023: $50B 

- FY2024: $54B 

- FY2025: $56B 

- FY2026: $60B 

- FY2027: $62B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 32.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2018: 28.9% 

- FY2019: 28.6% 

- FY2020: 28.5% 

- FY2021: 23.7% 

- FY2022: 28.5% 

- FY2023: 27.6% 

- FY2024: 30.0% 

- FY2025: 30.6% 

- FY2026: 31.0% 

- FY2027: 32.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel retail; annual sales are USD 60.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: revenue 60372000000; grossProfit 18693000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TJX.US: The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company provides family apparel comprising footwear; accessories, such as beauty and jewelry; home fashion products, including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware, as well as furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware; pet and gourmet food; and other merchandise. It also offers home decor, furniture, and seasonal home merchandise. The company sells its products through stores and e-commerce sites. The TJX Companies, Inc. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30% to 31% during 2024–26; it earns 30.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 31%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.4169752124520334],[2019,0.7444557307477935],[2020,0.2325920871888725],[2021,0.05405133316405917],[2022,0.2912523028194895],[2023,0.27094832775358973],[2024,0.30719737172490014],[2025,0.3003558087566295],[2026,0.3113538058051005],[2027,0.3197280904178848]]; median 0.3037765902407648. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 12.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 56.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2017: growth capex 293776657.52572775; upkeep 730970342.4742723; owner earnings 2226059657.5257277. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13197160126977972.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 331660000; upkeep 725957000; owner earnings 2607948000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12717278105238294.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 305484000; upkeep 819655000; owner earnings 3059798000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09983796315965957.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 355797000; upkeep 867303000; owner earnings 3272193000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10873350074399646.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 568000000; owner earnings 393000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 176800000; upkeep 868000000; owner earnings 3283000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.053853183064270484.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 417136176.7700192; upkeep 1039863823.2299808; owner earnings 3345136176.770019. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1246993110973424.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: growth capex 758000000; upkeep 964000000; owner earnings 4474000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16942333482342423.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: growth capex 694781446.897614; upkeep 1223218553.102386; owner earnings 4744781446.897614. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14643065327105814.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: growth capex 710000000; upkeep 1247000000; owner earnings 5494000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1292318893338187.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Incremental return on capital 0.5656144813030953, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2017,650988000],[2018,764040000],[2019,922596000],[2020,1071600000],[2021,278300000],[2022,1251800000],[2023,1339000000],[2024,1484000000],[2025,1648000000],[2026,1842000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2026: cash repurchases 2522000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TJX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.155 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our results and profitability could be adversely affected by increased labor costs" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-31); Our results and profitability could be adversely affected by increased labor costs

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21286274248987713. Price 144.58; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.6415447354989516 → FY2026 4.870567375886525. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $36.88 per share

- 2016-11: $39.17 per share

- 2016-12: $37.57 per share

- 2017-01: $37.46 per share

- 2017-02: $39.23 per share

- 2017-03: $39.54 per share

- 2017-04: $39.32 per share

- 2017-05: $37.61 per share

- 2017-06: $36.09 per share

- 2017-07: $35.16 per share

- 2017-08: $36.15 per share

- 2017-09: $36.87 per share

- 2017-10: $34.90 per share

- 2017-11: $37.78 per share

- 2017-12: $38.23 per share

- 2018-01: $40.16 per share

- 2018-02: $41.34 per share

- 2018-03: $40.78 per share

- 2018-04: $42.43 per share

- 2018-05: $45.16 per share

- 2018-06: $47.59 per share

- 2018-07: $48.63 per share

- 2018-08: $54.99 per share

- 2018-09: $56.01 per share

- 2018-10: $54.94 per share

- 2018-11: $48.85 per share

- 2018-12: $44.74 per share

- 2019-01: $49.73 per share

- 2019-02: $51.29 per share

- 2019-03: $53.21 per share

- 2019-04: $54.88 per share

- 2019-05: $50.29 per share

- 2019-06: $52.88 per share

- 2019-07: $54.56 per share

- 2019-08: $54.97 per share

- 2019-09: $55.74 per share

- 2019-10: $57.65 per share

- 2019-11: $61.13 per share

- 2019-12: $61.06 per share

- 2020-01: $59.04 per share

- 2020-02: $59.80 per share

- 2020-03: $47.81 per share

- 2020-04: $49.05 per share

- 2020-05: $52.76 per share

- 2020-06: $50.56 per share

- 2020-07: $51.99 per share

- 2020-08: $54.79 per share

- 2020-09: $55.65 per share

- 2020-10: $50.80 per share

- 2020-11: $63.51 per share

- 2020-12: $68.29 per share

- 2021-01: $64.04 per share

- 2021-02: $65.99 per share

- 2021-03: $66.15 per share

- 2021-04: $71.00 per share

- 2021-05: $67.54 per share

- 2021-06: $67.42 per share

- 2021-07: $68.81 per share

- 2021-08: $72.72 per share

- 2021-09: $65.98 per share

- 2021-10: $65.49 per share

- 2021-11: $69.40 per share

- 2021-12: $75.92 per share

- 2022-01: $71.97 per share

- 2022-02: $66.10 per share

- 2022-03: $60.58 per share

- 2022-04: $61.28 per share

- 2022-05: $63.57 per share

- 2022-06: $55.85 per share

- 2022-07: $61.16 per share

- 2022-08: $62.35 per share

- 2022-09: $62.12 per share

- 2022-10: $72.10 per share

- 2022-11: $80.05 per share

- 2022-12: $79.60 per share

- 2023-01: $81.86 per share

- 2023-02: $76.60 per share

- 2023-03: $78.36 per share

- 2023-04: $78.82 per share

- 2023-05: $76.79 per share

- 2023-06: $84.79 per share

- 2023-07: $86.53 per share

- 2023-08: $92.48 per share

- 2023-09: $88.88 per share

- 2023-10: $88.07 per share

- 2023-11: $88.11 per share

- 2023-12: $93.81 per share

- 2024-01: $94.91 per share

- 2024-02: $99.14 per share

- 2024-03: $101.42 per share

- 2024-04: $94.09 per share

- 2024-05: $103.10 per share

- 2024-06: $110.10 per share

- 2024-07: $113.02 per share

- 2024-08: $117.27 per share

- 2024-09: $117.54 per share

- 2024-10: $113.03 per share

- 2024-11: $125.69 per share

- 2024-12: $120.81 per share

- 2025-01: $124.79 per share

- 2025-02: $124.76 per share

- 2025-03: $121.80 per share

- 2025-04: $128.68 per share

- 2025-05: $126.90 per share

- 2025-06: $123.49 per share

- 2025-07: $124.53 per share

- 2025-08: $136.61 per share

- 2025-09: $144.54 per share

- 2025-10: $140.14 per share

- 2025-11: $151.92 per share

- 2025-12: $153.61 per share

- 2026-01: $149.81 per share

- 2026-02: $161.66 per share

- 2026-03: $159.70 per share

- 2026-04: $156.75 per share

- 2026-05: $154.75 per share

- 2026-06: $151.50 per share

- 2026-07: $157.34 per share

- 2026-08: $133.91 per share

- 2026-09: $132.31 per share

- 2026-10: $141.49 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $27.56 per share, central $39.23 per share, high $45.74 per share

- FY2018: low $29.18 per share, central $40.83 per share, high $47.62 per share

- FY2019: low $34.36 per share, central $49.31 per share, high $57.65 per share

- FY2020: low $37.86 per share, central $54.33 per share, high $63.52 per share

- FY2021: low $29.11 per share, central $32.01 per share, high $35.87 per share

- FY2022: low $46.48 per share, central $65.82 per share, high $76.61 per share

- FY2023: low $44.94 per share, central $63.12 per share, high $73.49 per share

- FY2024: low $49.83 per share, central $70.90 per share, high $82.65 per share

- FY2025: low $52.14 per share, central $74.37 per share, high $86.77 per share

- FY2026: low $68.58 per share, central $98.01 per share, high $114.42 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:10.270Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/109198/000010919826000008/tjx-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.