# TKO Group Holdings (TKO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TKO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:24.581Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $176.02 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $113.36 per share, central $128.02 per share, high $147.52 per share. Buy at or below the central value $128.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:24.581Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.0% at the stated quote. About 8.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.48×

- FY2023: 0.35×

- FY2024: 0.28×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 53.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 31.2%

- FY2018: 62.9%

- FY2019: 15.7%

- FY2020: 31.5%

- FY2021: 31.7%

- FY2022: 92.4%

- FY2023: 7.0%

- FY2024: 7.1%

- FY2025: 10.9%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 11.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $734M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.38×

- FY2022: 1.12×

- FY2023: -3.41×

- FY2024: 39.97×

- FY2025: 1.66×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 31.2% vs 7.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.42 to 0.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 9.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 18.2%

- Market cap gain: $39B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$630M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 9.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 18.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -22.5%

- Per-share value change: -$0.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.05

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.82

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $12B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 31.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.43

- FY2017: $0.42

- FY2018: $1.12

- FY2019: $0.86

- FY2020: $1.57

- FY2021: $2.12

- FY2022: $4.37

- FY2023: -$0.43

- FY2024: $0.05

- FY2025: $1.01

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -7.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.49×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.58×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 3.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.8%

- FY2017: -10.4%

- FY2018: -12.4%

- FY2019: -4.3%

- FY2020: -16.6%

- FY2021: -6.1%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: -7.0%

## Holders

- [Nick Train](https://gigainvestors.com/LT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · "TKO (TKO) Raises Guidance As Every Segment Fires At Once" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +12%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:42.043Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-06: TKO Group Holdings Inc (NYSE:TKO) Beats Q2 2025 Estimates and Raises Full-Year Guidance ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/TKO/Chartmill-32524-TKO-Group-Holdings-Inc-NYSETKO-Beats-Q2-2025-Estimates-and-Raises-Full-Year-Guidance))

- 2025-11-05: TKO Group Raises Outlook on UFC, WWE Momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c2728736-38a0-3403-a6e5-9d3cd34e5d50/tko-group-raises-outlook-on.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: $801M 

- FY2018: $930M 

- FY2019: $960M 

- FY2020: $974M 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.1B 

- FY2023: $1.7B 

- FY2024: $2.8B 

- FY2025: $4.7B 

- FY2026: $5.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 54.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2017: 30.2% 

- FY2018: 31.8% 

- FY2019: 30.0% 

- FY2020: 39.2% 

- FY2021: 40.7% 

- FY2022: 66.2% 

- FY2023: 59.4% 

- FY2024: 53.9% 

- FY2025: 49.6% 

- FY2026: 54.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in entertainment; annual sales are USD 4.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 4735151000; grossProfit 2347008000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TKO.US: TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company operates through three segments: UFC, WWE and IMG. The UFC segment distributes programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products. The WWE segment consists of media rights fees associated with the distribution of its programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of WWE-branded products. The IMG segment specializing in media rights management and sales, multi-channel content production and distribution, brand partnerships, strategic consulting, digital services, and event management. This segment also offers hospitality business, offering ticketing, curated guest experiences, live event production and travel management services. It is also involved in the merchandising of video games, apparel, equipment, trading cards, memorabilia, digital goods, and toys. In addition, the company engages in the sponsorships and advertising business, which offers sale of in-venue and in-broadcast advertising assets, content product integration, and digital impressions. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in New York, New York. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of WME Group, Inc.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 49.6% to 59.4% during 2023–25; it earns 23.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 59.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 53.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 49.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.31171048038293364],[2018,0.6287537394577398],[2019,0.15705900852806876],[2020,0.314556563593928],[2021,0.3169717554382881],[2022,0.9239138769254124],[2023,0.06967813095639831],[2024,0.0706860406376291],[2025,0.10856894332939677],[2026,0.11102874527539579]]; median 0.2343847444555012. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 866.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 29904000; owner earnings 65952000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 24710000; owner earnings 73002000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 32275000; owner earnings 137468000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 69086000; owner earnings 91255000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 21685000; owner earnings 196273999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 11131000; owner earnings 244201000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 12404000; owner earnings 434903000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 93753000; owner earnings 120043000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 118818000; owner earnings 376037000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 126953000; owner earnings 323469601.82503796. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,36564000],[2017,36854000],[2018,37243000],[2019,37431000],[2020,312315000],[2021,269079000],[2022,1095904000],[2023,296587000],[2024,67256000],[2025,640735000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 866846000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 18.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TKO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.211 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We have a substantial amount of indebtedness" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); We have a substantial amount of indebtedness

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05985366264875858. Price 176.02; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8520526315789474 → FY2025 1.6672739266398051. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $17.68 per share

- 2016-11: $18.78 per share

- 2016-12: $18.40 per share

- 2017-01: $19.58 per share

- 2017-02: $20.98 per share

- 2017-03: $22.22 per share

- 2017-04: $21.43 per share

- 2017-05: $20.41 per share

- 2017-06: $20.37 per share

- 2017-07: $21.16 per share

- 2017-08: $21.80 per share

- 2017-09: $23.55 per share

- 2017-10: $26.53 per share

- 2017-11: $28.49 per share

- 2017-12: $30.58 per share

- 2018-01: $35.35 per share

- 2018-02: $38.15 per share

- 2018-03: $36.01 per share

- 2018-04: $39.79 per share

- 2018-05: $57.89 per share

- 2018-06: $72.82 per share

- 2018-07: $79.11 per share

- 2018-08: $87.41 per share

- 2018-09: $96.73 per share

- 2018-10: $72.59 per share

- 2018-11: $73.96 per share

- 2018-12: $74.72 per share

- 2019-01: $82.34 per share

- 2019-02: $83.70 per share

- 2019-03: $86.78 per share

- 2019-04: $83.85 per share

- 2019-05: $72.74 per share

- 2019-06: $72.21 per share

- 2019-07: $72.78 per share

- 2019-08: $71.43 per share

- 2019-09: $71.15 per share

- 2019-10: $56.04 per share

- 2019-11: $62.02 per share

- 2019-12: $64.87 per share

- 2020-01: $48.88 per share

- 2020-02: $46.77 per share

- 2020-03: $33.93 per share

- 2020-04: $44.47 per share

- 2020-05: $46.27 per share

- 2020-06: $43.45 per share

- 2020-07: $46.61 per share

- 2020-08: $44.07 per share

- 2020-09: $40.47 per share

- 2020-10: $36.36 per share

- 2020-11: $43.04 per share

- 2020-12: $48.05 per share

- 2021-01: $56.33 per share

- 2021-02: $49.40 per share

- 2021-03: $54.26 per share

- 2021-04: $55.11 per share

- 2021-05: $55.84 per share

- 2021-06: $57.89 per share

- 2021-07: $49.38 per share

- 2021-08: $52.11 per share

- 2021-09: $56.26 per share

- 2021-10: $61.09 per share

- 2021-11: $49.36 per share

- 2021-12: $49.34 per share

- 2022-01: $49.94 per share

- 2022-02: $59.26 per share

- 2022-03: $62.44 per share

- 2022-04: $58.39 per share

- 2022-05: $66.77 per share

- 2022-06: $62.49 per share

- 2022-07: $69.31 per share

- 2022-08: $68.01 per share

- 2022-09: $70.17 per share

- 2022-10: $78.89 per share

- 2022-11: $79.88 per share

- 2022-12: $68.52 per share

- 2023-01: $84.62 per share

- 2023-02: $84.00 per share

- 2023-03: $91.26 per share

- 2023-04: $107.17 per share

- 2023-05: $101.32 per share

- 2023-06: $108.47 per share

- 2023-07: $105.00 per share

- 2023-08: $96.55 per share

- 2023-09: $84.06 per share

- 2023-10: $81.98 per share

- 2023-11: $77.33 per share

- 2023-12: $81.58 per share

- 2024-01: $83.69 per share

- 2024-02: $83.73 per share

- 2024-03: $86.41 per share

- 2024-04: $94.67 per share

- 2024-05: $109.07 per share

- 2024-06: $107.99 per share

- 2024-07: $109.35 per share

- 2024-08: $118.23 per share

- 2024-09: $123.71 per share

- 2024-10: $116.77 per share

- 2024-11: $137.96 per share

- 2024-12: $142.11 per share

- 2025-01: $155.21 per share

- 2025-02: $150.64 per share

- 2025-03: $152.81 per share

- 2025-04: $162.91 per share

- 2025-05: $157.81 per share

- 2025-06: $181.95 per share

- 2025-07: $168.01 per share

- 2025-08: $189.56 per share

- 2025-09: $201.96 per share

- 2025-10: $188.40 per share

- 2025-11: $193.89 per share

- 2025-12: $209.00 per share

- 2026-01: $202.58 per share

- 2026-02: $223.87 per share

- 2026-03: $201.65 per share

- 2026-04: $186.09 per share

- 2026-05: $205.18 per share

- 2026-06: $201.31 per share

- 2026-07: $181.81 per share

- 2026-08: $182.61 per share

- 2026-09: $179.72 per share

- 2026-10: $173.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $13.65 per share, central $15.18 per share, high $17.21 per share

- FY2020: low $18.88 per share, central $20.54 per share, high $22.75 per share

- FY2021: low $31.33 per share, central $34.24 per share, high $38.12 per share

- FY2022: low $30.08 per share, central $33.99 per share, high $39.18 per share

- FY2023: low $45.68 per share, central $51.82 per share, high $59.99 per share

- FY2024: low $37.03 per share, central $41.99 per share, high $48.58 per share

- FY2025: low $37.13 per share, central $42.06 per share, high $48.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:10.377Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973266/000119312526071651/tko-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.