# Timken (TKR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TKR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:24.975Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $113.01 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $75.06 per share, central $90.24 per share, high $104.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value $90.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:24.975Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.5% at the stated quote. About 8.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 13.3%

- FY2018: 15.9%

- FY2019: 16.2%

- FY2020: 13.5%

- FY2021: 15.8%

- FY2022: 15.8%

- FY2023: 15.1%

- FY2024: 14.0%

- FY2025: 12.4%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 11.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.14×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 32.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 37.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.15×

- FY2025: 1.28×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.35×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.3% vs 14.0%

- Per-share earnings: 2.21 to 4.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: $2.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.7%

- Per-share value change: $2.78

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.21

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.44

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.78

- FY2017: $2.58

- FY2018: $3.87

- FY2019: $4.71

- FY2020: $3.73

- FY2021: $4.79

- FY2022: $5.48

- FY2023: $5.66

- FY2024: $4.99

- FY2025: $4.11

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.92×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.78×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.5%

- FY2017: -1.0%

- FY2018: -0.7%

- FY2019: -3.9%

- FY2020: -5.8%

- FY2021: -0.4%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: -1.9%

- FY2025: -4.0%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 22% since Jun 2026 · "Timken targets 8% EPS growth and expands 80/20 strategy while advancing portfolio simplification" (seekingalpha.com, Feb 2026) · sales +3.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:42.070Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: TKR Q1 Earnings Call: Tariff Headwinds and Cost Actions Shape 2025 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tkr-q1-earnings-call-tariff-234158435.html))

- 2025-07-30: Timken Co (NYSE:TKR) Posts Mixed Q2 2025 Earnings with Revenue Beat but Margin Pressures ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/TKR/Chartmill-31857-Timken-Co-NYSETKR-Posts-Mixed-Q2-2025-Earnings-with-Revenue-Beat-but-Margin-Pressures))

- 2025-08-13: TKR Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Compression and Cautious Outlook Amid Trade Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tkr-q2-deep-dive-margin-033519957.html))

- 2026-02-04: Timken targets 8% EPS growth and expands 80/20 strategy while advancing portfolio simplification ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4547406-timken-targets-8-percent-eps-growth-and-expands-80-20-strategy-while-advancing-portfolio?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-10: Timken (TKR) Is Down 8.1% After Raising 2026 Outlook And Reshaping Leadership Team ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/timken-tkr-down-8-1-091004613.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $3.0B 

- FY2018: $3.6B 

- FY2019: $3.8B 

- FY2020: $3.5B 

- FY2021: $4.1B 

- FY2022: $4.5B 

- FY2023: $4.8B 

- FY2024: $4.6B 

- FY2025: $4.6B 

- FY2026: $4.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 28.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: 27.0% 

- FY2018: 29.0% 

- FY2019: 30.2% 

- FY2020: 29.0% 

- FY2021: 28.0% 

- FY2022: 29.9% 

- FY2024: 31.6% 

- FY2025: 28.7% 

- FY2026: 28.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in tools & accessories; annual sales are USD 4.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 4581800000; grossProfit 1314200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TKR.US: The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The Engineered Bearings segment provides various bearing products, including tapered, spherical, and cylindrical roller bearings; plain bearings, metal-polymer bearings, and rod end bearings; radial, angular, and precision ball bearings; thrust and specialty ball bearings; journal bearings; and housed or mounted bearings. This segment serves wind energy, agriculture, construction, food and beverage, metals and mining, automotive and truck, aerospace, rail, and other industries under the Timken, GGB, and Fafnir brands. The Industrial Motion segment offers a portfolio of engineered products, such as industrial drives, automatic lubrication systems, linear motion products and systems, chains, belts, couplings, filtration systems, seals, and industrial clutches and brakes, as well as industrial drivetrain and bearing repairing services. This segment serves a range of industries comprising solar energy, automation, construction, agriculture and turf, passenger rail, marine, aerospace, packaging and logistics, medical, and others under the Philadelphia Gear, Cone Drive, Rollon, Nadella, Groeneveld, BEKA, Diamond, Drives, Timken Belts, Spinea, Des-Case, Lagersmit, Lovejoy, CGI, and PT Tech brands. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.7% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 14.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1331070578784017],[2018,0.1585584042626057],[2019,0.16167360752871723],[2020,0.13482627861182636],[2021,0.15774353746986255],[2022,0.15798501219317584],[2023,0.1512574476211238],[2024,0.13993334012135758],[2025,0.12444780984138108],[2026,0.11778431508468723]]; median 0.1455953938712407. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 57.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 137500000; cash acquisitions 72600000; owner earnings 135000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5377777777777778.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 104700000; cash acquisitions 346800000; owner earnings 236400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.467005076142132.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 112600000; cash acquisitions 765400000; owner earnings 336200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.276621058893516.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 140600000; cash acquisitions 226500000; owner earnings 382100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5927767600104684.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 121600000; cash acquisitions 24000000; owner earnings 330000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07272727272727272.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 148300000; cash acquisitions 7500000; owner earnings 388600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01930005146680391.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 14400000; upkeep 164000000; cash acquisitions 453700000; owner earnings 407400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.148993618065783.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 187800000; cash acquisitions 638800000; owner earnings 421500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5155397390272836.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 170000000; cash acquisitions 167400000; owner earnings 404500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4138442521631644.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 148200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 370300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,81600000],[2017,83300000],[2018,85700000],[2019,84900000],[2020,87000000],[2021,92200000],[2022,91700000],[2023,94000000],[2024,96100000],[2025,98300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 57400000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TKR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.9399999999999995 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

No single customer accounts for more than 5% of total net sales.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Major Customers: The Company sells products and services to a diverse customer base globally, including customers in the following market sectors: industrial distribution, renewable energy, automation, automotive original equipment ("OE"), agriculture/turf, rail, aerospace, auto/truck aftermarket, construction, services, metals and mining, heavy truck OE, and marine. No single customer accounts for more than 5% of total net sales. Products: Timken manufactures and manages global supply chains for multiple product lines including engineered bearings and industrial motion products designed to operate in demanding environments.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06500322742722597. Price 113.01; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.505089679046926 → FY2025 5.272547416120007. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $33.05 per share

- 2016-11: $39.05 per share

- 2016-12: $39.70 per share

- 2017-01: $44.40 per share

- 2017-02: $44.20 per share

- 2017-03: $45.20 per share

- 2017-04: $48.25 per share

- 2017-05: $46.15 per share

- 2017-06: $46.25 per share

- 2017-07: $45.50 per share

- 2017-08: $44.85 per share

- 2017-09: $48.55 per share

- 2017-10: $47.15 per share

- 2017-11: $49.90 per share

- 2017-12: $49.15 per share

- 2018-01: $52.55 per share

- 2018-02: $43.80 per share

- 2018-03: $45.60 per share

- 2018-04: $42.75 per share

- 2018-05: $47.30 per share

- 2018-06: $43.55 per share

- 2018-07: $49.25 per share

- 2018-08: $48.65 per share

- 2018-09: $49.85 per share

- 2018-10: $39.55 per share

- 2018-11: $40.15 per share

- 2018-12: $37.32 per share

- 2019-01: $42.59 per share

- 2019-02: $43.39 per share

- 2019-03: $43.62 per share

- 2019-04: $47.95 per share

- 2019-05: $44.01 per share

- 2019-06: $51.34 per share

- 2019-07: $45.71 per share

- 2019-08: $40.18 per share

- 2019-09: $43.51 per share

- 2019-10: $49.00 per share

- 2019-11: $52.59 per share

- 2019-12: $56.31 per share

- 2020-01: $52.53 per share

- 2020-02: $44.84 per share

- 2020-03: $32.34 per share

- 2020-04: $37.58 per share

- 2020-05: $42.54 per share

- 2020-06: $45.49 per share

- 2020-07: $45.66 per share

- 2020-08: $54.19 per share

- 2020-09: $54.22 per share

- 2020-10: $59.70 per share

- 2020-11: $73.44 per share

- 2020-12: $77.36 per share

- 2021-01: $75.66 per share

- 2021-02: $78.35 per share

- 2021-03: $81.17 per share

- 2021-04: $83.87 per share

- 2021-05: $88.45 per share

- 2021-06: $80.59 per share

- 2021-07: $79.50 per share

- 2021-08: $73.54 per share

- 2021-09: $65.42 per share

- 2021-10: $70.95 per share

- 2021-11: $65.83 per share

- 2021-12: $69.29 per share

- 2022-01: $66.80 per share

- 2022-02: $65.56 per share

- 2022-03: $60.70 per share

- 2022-04: $57.64 per share

- 2022-05: $61.07 per share

- 2022-06: $53.05 per share

- 2022-07: $65.38 per share

- 2022-08: $62.99 per share

- 2022-09: $59.04 per share

- 2022-10: $71.29 per share

- 2022-11: $75.98 per share

- 2022-12: $70.67 per share

- 2023-01: $82.35 per share

- 2023-02: $85.45 per share

- 2023-03: $81.72 per share

- 2023-04: $76.85 per share

- 2023-05: $71.55 per share

- 2023-06: $91.53 per share

- 2023-07: $92.86 per share

- 2023-08: $76.42 per share

- 2023-09: $73.49 per share

- 2023-10: $69.12 per share

- 2023-11: $72.40 per share

- 2023-12: $80.15 per share

- 2024-01: $81.91 per share

- 2024-02: $83.99 per share

- 2024-03: $87.43 per share

- 2024-04: $89.22 per share

- 2024-05: $86.89 per share

- 2024-06: $80.13 per share

- 2024-07: $86.95 per share

- 2024-08: $84.53 per share

- 2024-09: $84.29 per share

- 2024-10: $83.00 per share

- 2024-11: $77.45 per share

- 2024-12: $71.37 per share

- 2025-01: $80.27 per share

- 2025-02: $81.00 per share

- 2025-03: $71.87 per share

- 2025-04: $64.25 per share

- 2025-05: $68.49 per share

- 2025-06: $72.55 per share

- 2025-07: $76.09 per share

- 2025-08: $77.23 per share

- 2025-09: $75.18 per share

- 2025-10: $78.51 per share

- 2025-11: $81.39 per share

- 2025-12: $84.13 per share

- 2026-01: $93.19 per share

- 2026-02: $108.38 per share

- 2026-03: $100.57 per share

- 2026-04: $110.89 per share

- 2026-05: $127.98 per share

- 2026-06: $145.32 per share

- 2026-07: $137.55 per share

- 2026-08: $120.45 per share

- 2026-09: $116.75 per share

- 2026-10: $113.01 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $23.06 per share, central $26.04 per share, high $30.02 per share

- FY2017: low $25.52 per share, central $28.89 per share, high $33.39 per share

- FY2018: low $38.25 per share, central $43.38 per share, high $50.21 per share

- FY2019: low $46.76 per share, central $55.70 per share, high $64.51 per share

- FY2020: low $52.39 per share, central $60.84 per share, high $70.15 per share

- FY2021: low $58.12 per share, central $65.71 per share, high $75.83 per share

- FY2022: low $69.32 per share, central $82.50 per share, high $95.45 per share

- FY2023: low $76.77 per share, central $91.63 per share, high $105.93 per share

- FY2024: low $70.97 per share, central $83.63 per share, high $96.66 per share

- FY2025: low $71.32 per share, central $85.74 per share, high $99.23 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98362/000009836226000012/tkr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.