# T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TMUS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:26.266Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $157.03 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $135.30 per share, central $168.10 per share, high $196.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value $168.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:26.266Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.5% at the stated quote. About 10.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- FY2022 operating-margin dip fully recovered the next year and stayed recovered; holding that year at the preceding margin meets the existing variation limit. Raw variation still determines the price discount.

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.35×

- One fully recovered margin dip: Yes

- Variation with recovered dip held at prior margin: 0.35

- Recovered dip fiscal year: FY2022

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 9.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 9.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 57.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.3%

- FY2017: 9.7%

- FY2018: 10.5%

- FY2019: 6.4%

- FY2020: 3.4%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 3.3%

- FY2023: 6.7%

- FY2024: 8.8%

- FY2025: 8.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.07×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $39B

- Net income, five-year total: $36B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 74.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: -0.41×

- FY2023: 1.24×

- FY2024: 1.05×

- FY2025: 1.32×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.7% vs 8.8%

- Per-share earnings: 1.75 to 9.66 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: $177B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $42B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 23.8%

- Per-share value change: $7.91

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.75

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.66

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.13

- Average buyback yield: 3.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $90B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $52B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.75

- FY2017: $5.20

- FY2018: $3.36

- FY2019: $4.02

- FY2020: $2.65

- FY2021: $2.41

- FY2022: $2.06

- FY2023: $6.93

- FY2024: $9.66

- FY2025: $9.72

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.54×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.1%

- FY2017: 1.0%

- FY2018: -1.4%

- FY2019: -3.9%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -5.3%

- FY2022: -6.7%

- FY2023: -4.9%

- FY2024: -5.3%

- FY2025: -7.7%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 42% since Feb 2025 · "T-Mobile US (TMUS) Under Pressure As SpaceX Pushes Into Mobile Services" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:42.340Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: T-Mobile wireless subscriber growth misses estimates as competition heats up ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/t-mobile-misses-estimates-wireless-200823846.html))

- 2026-02-11: T-Mobile adds fewer wireless subscribers than expected amid intense competition ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-mobile-adds-fewer-wireless-124002650.html))

- 2026-07-23: T-Mobile shares slide on Q2 revenue miss; free cash flow outlook raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/t-mobile-shares-slide-q2-110953546.html))

- 2026-08-04: TMUS Raises Cash Flow Outlook After Another Strong Earnings Quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tmus-raises-cash-flow-outlook-183100270.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $41B 

- FY2018: $43B 

- FY2019: $45B 

- FY2020: $68B 

- FY2021: $80B 

- FY2022: $80B 

- FY2023: $79B 

- FY2024: $81B 

- FY2025: $88B 

- FY2026: $92B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 55.9% 

- FY2017: 56.4% 

- FY2018: 57.6% 

- FY2019: 58.8% 

- FY2020: 58.7% 

- FY2021: 54.3% 

- FY2022: 54.5% 

- FY2023: 61.6% 

- FY2024: 63.6% 

- FY2025: 47.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in telecom services; annual sales are USD 88.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 88309000000; grossProfit 42068000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TMUS.US: T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale and other services customers. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, home broadband gateways, headsets, and other mobile communication devices, as well as accessories; financing through equipment installment plans; reinsurance for device insurance policies and extended warranty contracts. The company offers services under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, customer care channels, national retailers, and its websites, as well as through T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile apps. It also sells devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. It has 700 MHz wireless spectrum licenses. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington. T-Mobile US, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom AG.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.6% to 63.6% during 2023–25; it earns 7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 61.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 63.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07341048522030118],[2017,0.09666574378040581],[2018,0.10540500169556645],[2019,0.06371209431185978],[2020,0.03414152628686276],[2021,0.039091510156447386],[2022,0.032704379158164584],[2023,0.06693081663946784],[2024,0.0880034493993944],[2025,0.08894882930297182]]; median 0.0701706509298845. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back USD 10 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 2427000000; upkeep 6243000000; owner earnings 1460000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.6623287671232876.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 1805691987.3576813; upkeep 9259308012.642319; owner earnings 1260691987.3576813. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4323022637292082.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 5668000000; owner earnings 3706000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 742000000; upkeep 6616000000; owner earnings 3468000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21395617070357556.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 12367000000; owner earnings 4848000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 5309000000; upkeep 16383000000; owner earnings 3024000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.755621693121693.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 10811000000; owner earnings 10324000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 12311000000; owner earnings 11947000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 9955000000; owner earnings 14545000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,55000000],[2017,55000000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,54080000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,747000000],[2024,3300000000],[2025,4121000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 9974000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 55.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TMUS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 55.553 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our wireless licenses are subject to renewal" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Our wireless licenses are subject to renewal

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 43.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.018817263151753895. Price 157.03; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.35721333112682246 → FY2025 12.859433647502161. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $49.73 per share

- 2016-11: $54.21 per share

- 2016-12: $57.51 per share

- 2017-01: $62.27 per share

- 2017-02: $62.53 per share

- 2017-03: $64.59 per share

- 2017-04: $67.27 per share

- 2017-05: $67.42 per share

- 2017-06: $60.62 per share

- 2017-07: $61.66 per share

- 2017-08: $64.71 per share

- 2017-09: $61.66 per share

- 2017-10: $59.77 per share

- 2017-11: $61.07 per share

- 2017-12: $63.51 per share

- 2018-01: $65.10 per share

- 2018-02: $60.61 per share

- 2018-03: $61.04 per share

- 2018-04: $60.51 per share

- 2018-05: $55.70 per share

- 2018-06: $59.75 per share

- 2018-07: $60.00 per share

- 2018-08: $66.04 per share

- 2018-09: $70.18 per share

- 2018-10: $68.55 per share

- 2018-11: $68.45 per share

- 2018-12: $63.61 per share

- 2019-01: $69.62 per share

- 2019-02: $72.21 per share

- 2019-03: $69.10 per share

- 2019-04: $72.99 per share

- 2019-05: $73.44 per share

- 2019-06: $74.14 per share

- 2019-07: $79.73 per share

- 2019-08: $78.05 per share

- 2019-09: $78.77 per share

- 2019-10: $82.66 per share

- 2019-11: $78.55 per share

- 2019-12: $78.42 per share

- 2020-01: $79.19 per share

- 2020-02: $90.16 per share

- 2020-03: $83.90 per share

- 2020-04: $87.80 per share

- 2020-05: $100.04 per share

- 2020-06: $104.15 per share

- 2020-07: $107.38 per share

- 2020-08: $116.68 per share

- 2020-09: $114.36 per share

- 2020-10: $109.57 per share

- 2020-11: $132.94 per share

- 2020-12: $134.85 per share

- 2021-01: $126.08 per share

- 2021-02: $119.97 per share

- 2021-03: $125.29 per share

- 2021-04: $132.13 per share

- 2021-05: $141.45 per share

- 2021-06: $144.83 per share

- 2021-07: $144.02 per share

- 2021-08: $137.02 per share

- 2021-09: $127.76 per share

- 2021-10: $115.03 per share

- 2021-11: $108.81 per share

- 2021-12: $115.98 per share

- 2022-01: $108.17 per share

- 2022-02: $123.21 per share

- 2022-03: $128.35 per share

- 2022-04: $123.14 per share

- 2022-05: $133.29 per share

- 2022-06: $134.54 per share

- 2022-07: $143.06 per share

- 2022-08: $143.96 per share

- 2022-09: $134.17 per share

- 2022-10: $151.56 per share

- 2022-11: $151.46 per share

- 2022-12: $140.00 per share

- 2023-01: $149.31 per share

- 2023-02: $142.18 per share

- 2023-03: $144.84 per share

- 2023-04: $143.90 per share

- 2023-05: $137.25 per share

- 2023-06: $138.90 per share

- 2023-07: $137.77 per share

- 2023-08: $136.25 per share

- 2023-09: $140.05 per share

- 2023-10: $143.86 per share

- 2023-11: $150.45 per share

- 2023-12: $160.33 per share

- 2024-01: $161.23 per share

- 2024-02: $163.30 per share

- 2024-03: $163.22 per share

- 2024-04: $164.17 per share

- 2024-05: $174.96 per share

- 2024-06: $176.18 per share

- 2024-07: $182.28 per share

- 2024-08: $198.72 per share

- 2024-09: $206.36 per share

- 2024-10: $223.16 per share

- 2024-11: $246.94 per share

- 2024-12: $220.73 per share

- 2025-01: $232.97 per share

- 2025-02: $269.69 per share

- 2025-03: $266.71 per share

- 2025-04: $246.95 per share

- 2025-05: $242.20 per share

- 2025-06: $238.26 per share

- 2025-07: $238.41 per share

- 2025-08: $251.99 per share

- 2025-09: $239.38 per share

- 2025-10: $210.05 per share

- 2025-11: $209.01 per share

- 2025-12: $203.04 per share

- 2026-01: $197.21 per share

- 2026-02: $217.09 per share

- 2026-03: $210.03 per share

- 2026-04: $195.50 per share

- 2026-05: $187.53 per share

- 2026-06: $167.73 per share

- 2026-07: $172.71 per share

- 2026-08: $180.44 per share

- 2026-09: $163.08 per share

- 2026-10: $153.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.77 per share, central $12.30 per share, high $13.42 per share

- FY2017: low $5.87 per share, central $7.74 per share, high $8.98 per share

- FY2018: low $20.23 per share, central $26.73 per share, high $31.23 per share

- FY2019: low $26.38 per share, central $34.71 per share, high $40.50 per share

- FY2020: low $55.98 per share, central $65.49 per share, high $74.98 per share

- FY2021: low $53.48 per share, central $60.30 per share, high $69.38 per share

- FY2022: low $51.43 per share, central $58.20 per share, high $67.21 per share

- FY2023: low $57.55 per share, central $70.07 per share, high $81.22 per share

- FY2024: low $61.17 per share, central $74.57 per share, high $86.43 per share

- FY2025: low $125.47 per share, central $155.27 per share, high $180.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:11.725Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1283699/000128369926000010/tmus-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.