# Toll Brothers (TOL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TOL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:27.349Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $133.94 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $208.67 per share, central $294.17 per share, high $343.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value $294.17 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:27.349Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.3% at the stated quote. About 18.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 26.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.3%

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: 8.7%

- FY2019: 6.6%

- FY2020: 5.5%

- FY2021: 10.5%

- FY2022: 14.0%

- FY2023: 15.1%

- FY2024: 16.5%

- FY2025: 13.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $6.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -5.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -33.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 89.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.0% vs 15.1%

- Per-share earnings: 2.17 to 13.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -6.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.3%

- Market cap gain: $8.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $4.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -6.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 25.7%

- Per-share value change: $11.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $13.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 7.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $724M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.17

- FY2017: $3.16

- FY2018: $4.85

- FY2019: $4.03

- FY2020: $3.40

- FY2021: $6.63

- FY2022: $10.90

- FY2023: $12.36

- FY2024: $15.01

- FY2025: $13.49

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.83×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.4%

- FY2017: -4.5%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: 1.4%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: 2.4%

- FY2023: 0.8%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 1.6%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Edgar Wachenheim](https://gigainvestors.com/GA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.9% a year for ten years · "Toll Brothers Sounds Cautious Note for 2026 on Lagging Housing Demand" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales -1.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:42.639Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-29: TOL Q1 Earnings Call: Margin Discipline and Spec Strategy Offset Softer Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tol-q1-earnings-call-margin-185956058.html))

- 2025-08-19: Toll Brothers Q3 earnings beat on strong home sales; deliveries guide falls short ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4487219-toll-brothers-q3-earnings-beat-on-strong-home-sales-deliveries-guide-falls-short?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-14: Toll Brothers (TOL): Assessing Valuation After Upbeat Earnings Outlook and New Luxury Community Launches ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toll-brothers-tol-assessing-valuation-101910287.html))

- 2025-12-08: Toll Brothers Sounds Cautious Note for 2026 on Lagging Housing Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c231e34a-9041-3fd0-94ec-874ed49804dc/toll-brothers-sounds-cautious.html))

- 2026-02-17: Toll Brothers First-Quarter Revenue Rises Amid Higher Land Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7c79aedc-7d1e-32d1-9243-45b7e8e87882/toll-brothers-first-quarter.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm; observed 2025-12-19.

- FY2017: $5.8B 

- FY2018: $7.1B 

- FY2019: $7.2B 

- FY2020: $7.1B 

- FY2021: $8.8B 

- FY2022: $10B 

- FY2023: $10.0B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 26%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm; observed 2025-12-19.

- FY2016: 19.8% 

- FY2017: 21.5% 

- FY2018: 20.6% 

- FY2019: 19.6% 

- FY2020: 20.0% 

- FY2021: 22.1% 

- FY2022: 24.2% 

- FY2023: 26.4% 

- FY2024: 27.9% 

- FY2025: 26.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are USD 11 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-19); FY2025: revenue 10966723000; grossProfit 2847011000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TOL.US: Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26% to 27.9% during 2023–25; it earns 9.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.043215091572030385],[2017,0.06025713413073229],[2018,0.0865605263171736],[2019,0.0662086026275375],[2020,0.05518945690998436],[2021,0.10543381136065366],[2022,0.1401477682922836],[2023,0.1514461675416676],[2024,0.16474308300266585],[2025,0.1302691351966425]]; median 0.09599716883891363. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 16.8% of cash earnings; earns 25.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2016: growth capex 5305000; upkeep 23121000; owner earnings 382095000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.013883981732291708.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2017: growth capex 3511000; upkeep 25361000; cash acquisitions 83088000; owner earnings 535495000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.16171766309676094.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2018: growth capex 2973000; upkeep 25259000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 748151000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.003973796733547105.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2019: growth capex 2632531.8452471793; upkeep 84338468.15475282; cash acquisitions 162373000; owner earnings 577817531.8452471. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2855668489640765.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 109564000; cash acquisitions 60349000; owner earnings 405933000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.14866739092411801.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 66878000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 842999000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 71726000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1291590000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 72961000; cash acquisitions 103689000; owner earnings 1375583000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07537822145228605.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 73643000; cash acquisitions 91872000; owner earnings 1578753000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05819276352919044.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-19); FY2025: growth capex 4110000; upkeep 82085000; cash acquisitions 222160000; owner earnings 1346486000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1680448218548132.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); Incremental return on capital 0.25788164572520034, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,38587000],[2017,38587000],[2018,61704000],[2019,63641000],[2020,56588000],[2021,76623000],[2022,88901000],[2023,91082000],[2024,93401000],[2025,97075000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 651016000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TOL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.742 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 20.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06736808980794934. Price 133.94; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.0426143592686636 → FY2025 13.494683249982462. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $27.44 per share

- 2016-11: $29.66 per share

- 2016-12: $31.00 per share

- 2017-01: $31.36 per share

- 2017-02: $34.14 per share

- 2017-03: $36.11 per share

- 2017-04: $35.99 per share

- 2017-05: $36.91 per share

- 2017-06: $39.51 per share

- 2017-07: $38.59 per share

- 2017-08: $38.96 per share

- 2017-09: $41.47 per share

- 2017-10: $46.04 per share

- 2017-11: $50.33 per share

- 2017-12: $48.02 per share

- 2018-01: $46.58 per share

- 2018-02: $43.83 per share

- 2018-03: $43.25 per share

- 2018-04: $42.16 per share

- 2018-05: $39.49 per share

- 2018-06: $36.99 per share

- 2018-07: $35.26 per share

- 2018-08: $36.23 per share

- 2018-09: $33.03 per share

- 2018-10: $33.66 per share

- 2018-11: $32.97 per share

- 2018-12: $32.93 per share

- 2019-01: $36.94 per share

- 2019-02: $35.60 per share

- 2019-03: $36.20 per share

- 2019-04: $38.10 per share

- 2019-05: $34.77 per share

- 2019-06: $36.62 per share

- 2019-07: $35.97 per share

- 2019-08: $36.19 per share

- 2019-09: $41.05 per share

- 2019-10: $39.77 per share

- 2019-11: $40.17 per share

- 2019-12: $39.51 per share

- 2020-01: $44.36 per share

- 2020-02: $37.03 per share

- 2020-03: $19.25 per share

- 2020-04: $24.02 per share

- 2020-05: $32.31 per share

- 2020-06: $32.59 per share

- 2020-07: $38.20 per share

- 2020-08: $42.22 per share

- 2020-09: $48.66 per share

- 2020-10: $42.28 per share

- 2020-11: $47.35 per share

- 2020-12: $43.47 per share

- 2021-01: $51.10 per share

- 2021-02: $53.42 per share

- 2021-03: $56.73 per share

- 2021-04: $62.70 per share

- 2021-05: $65.24 per share

- 2021-06: $57.81 per share

- 2021-07: $59.27 per share

- 2021-08: $64.06 per share

- 2021-09: $55.29 per share

- 2021-10: $60.17 per share

- 2021-11: $63.47 per share

- 2021-12: $72.39 per share

- 2022-01: $58.97 per share

- 2022-02: $54.26 per share

- 2022-03: $47.02 per share

- 2022-04: $46.37 per share

- 2022-05: $50.47 per share

- 2022-06: $44.60 per share

- 2022-07: $49.18 per share

- 2022-08: $43.79 per share

- 2022-09: $42.00 per share

- 2022-10: $43.08 per share

- 2022-11: $47.91 per share

- 2022-12: $49.92 per share

- 2023-01: $59.49 per share

- 2023-02: $59.94 per share

- 2023-03: $60.03 per share

- 2023-04: $63.91 per share

- 2023-05: $67.70 per share

- 2023-06: $79.07 per share

- 2023-07: $80.33 per share

- 2023-08: $81.93 per share

- 2023-09: $73.96 per share

- 2023-10: $70.71 per share

- 2023-11: $85.89 per share

- 2023-12: $102.79 per share

- 2024-01: $99.35 per share

- 2024-02: $114.64 per share

- 2024-03: $129.37 per share

- 2024-04: $119.11 per share

- 2024-05: $121.64 per share

- 2024-06: $115.18 per share

- 2024-07: $142.71 per share

- 2024-08: $144.07 per share

- 2024-09: $154.49 per share

- 2024-10: $146.44 per share

- 2024-11: $165.17 per share

- 2024-12: $125.95 per share

- 2025-01: $135.81 per share

- 2025-02: $111.64 per share

- 2025-03: $105.59 per share

- 2025-04: $100.87 per share

- 2025-05: $104.25 per share

- 2025-06: $114.13 per share

- 2025-07: $118.36 per share

- 2025-08: $139.00 per share

- 2025-09: $138.14 per share

- 2025-10: $134.95 per share

- 2025-11: $139.83 per share

- 2025-12: $135.22 per share

- 2026-01: $144.49 per share

- 2026-02: $157.24 per share

- 2026-03: $136.47 per share

- 2026-04: $142.14 per share

- 2026-05: $138.54 per share

- 2026-06: $164.75 per share

- 2026-07: $145.89 per share

- 2026-08: $143.45 per share

- 2026-09: $134.75 per share

- 2026-10: $133.94 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $31.58 per share, central $35.51 per share, high $40.76 per share

- FY2017: low $37.75 per share, central $43.54 per share, high $50.07 per share

- FY2018: low $60.54 per share, central $79.20 per share, high $91.62 per share

- FY2019: low $68.42 per share, central $94.41 per share, high $109.54 per share

- FY2020: low $68.01 per share, central $93.14 per share, high $107.77 per share

- FY2021: low $99.10 per share, central $136.59 per share, high $158.41 per share

- FY2022: low $123.23 per share, central $171.89 per share, high $200.23 per share

- FY2023: low $127.30 per share, central $177.60 per share, high $206.90 per share

- FY2024: low $187.42 per share, central $263.29 per share, high $307.47 per share

- FY2025: low $198.24 per share, central $278.72 per share, high $325.59 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794170/000079417025000112/tol-20251031.htm); period 2025-10-31, filed 2025-12-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.