# Turning Point Brands (TPB.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TPB

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:27.682Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $60.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $44.87 per share, central $49.69 per share, high $55.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value $49.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:27.682Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 57.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 30.6%

- FY2018: 25.2%

- FY2019: 15.0%

- FY2020: 20.0%

- FY2021: 26.1%

- FY2022: 20.2%

- FY2023: 19.0%

- FY2024: 24.0%

- FY2025: 25.7%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 19.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $188M

- Net income, five-year total: $193M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 21.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.63×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.6% vs 24.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.49 to 2.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Market cap gain: $1.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $267M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.1%

- Per-share value change: $0.56

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.49

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.06

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.22

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $107M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $327M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 24.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.49

- FY2017: $1.04

- FY2018: $1.28

- FY2019: $0.70

- FY2020: $1.67

- FY2021: $2.33

- FY2022: $0.64

- FY2023: $1.88

- FY2024: $2.06

- FY2025: $3.11

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.28×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 12.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.56×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.2%

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: 3.6%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -1.1%

- FY2021: -2.7%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -5.5%

- FY2025: 0.1%

## Holders

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 56% since Feb 2026 · "Turning Point Brands  named a new CEO and cut its full-year outlook on Monday." (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +9.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:42.687Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.3% a year for ten years

- 2026-09-21: Tobacco Stock Flakes Out After New CEO and Guidance Cut Announcement ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5e8c7541-17e6-350a-96d9-ba2c84bce5b8/tobacco-stock-flakes-out.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: $286M 

- FY2018: $333M 

- FY2019: $362M 

- FY2020: $405M 

- FY2021: $445M 

- FY2022: $321M 

- FY2023: $325M 

- FY2024: $361M 

- FY2025: $463M 

- FY2026: $507M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 59.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: 43.7% 

- FY2018: 42.9% 

- FY2019: 44.2% 

- FY2020: 46.9% 

- FY2021: 48.9% 

- FY2022: 55.4% 

- FY2023: 56.3% 

- FY2024: 55.9% 

- FY2025: 57.1% 

- FY2026: 59.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in tobacco; annual sales are USD 463.1 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 463062000; grossProfit 264314000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); TPB.US: Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Zig-Zag Products and Stoker's Products. Its Zig-Zag Products segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, and related products, as well as lighters and other accessories under the Zig-Zag brand. The Stoker's Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under the Stoker's, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River brands. In addition, the company markets and distributes cannabis accessories and tobacco products. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandising, drug store, and non-traditional retail channels. The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc. and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc. in November 2015. Turning Point Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.9% to 57.1% during 2023–25; it earns 22.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 57.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3057478303771915],[2018,0.25200988950645553],[2019,0.14979386609834305],[2020,0.19985378839968698],[2021,0.26140390503093786],[2022,0.20232564115217758],[2023,0.18963398659515476],[2024,0.2399915090551495],[2025,0.25668130099864567],[2026,0.19299748004657374]]; median 0.22115857510366355. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 10.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 21.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 252516.89615794457; upkeep 2954483.1038420554; cash acquisitions 23625000; owner earnings 25243516.896157943. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.945887096254488.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2021000; cash acquisitions 268000; owner earnings 20516000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01306297523883798.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2267000; cash acquisitions 19161000; owner earnings 26132000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7332389407622838.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 369000; upkeep 4446000; cash acquisitions 7704000; owner earnings 16233000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.49732027351691.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2020: growth capex 1117000; upkeep 5018000; cash acquisitions 39441000; owner earnings 38192000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.061950146627566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2021: growth capex 1144000; upkeep 5012000; cash acquisitions 16416000; owner earnings 52059000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.33730959104093433.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 7685000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7339000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 347278.05336530786; upkeep 5359721.946634692; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 37220278.053365305. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.009330345487139863.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4623000; owner earnings 40848000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 6113000; upkeep 7416000; owner earnings 58165000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10509756726553769.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Incremental return on capital 0.21934967439841335, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,768000],[2017,768000],[2018,2318000],[2019,3531000],[2020,3802000],[2021,4096000],[2022,4250000],[2023,4497000],[2024,4905000],[2025,5519000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 33000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); TPB.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.247 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-02); hes, category expansions and acquisitions while concurrently improving operational efficiency.

We believe there are meaningful opportunities to expand through investing in organic growth via acquisitions and joint ventures across all product categories. Our products are currently available in approximately 220,000 retail locations in North America. Our sales team targets widespread distribution to all traditional retail channels, including convenience stores, and we have a growing e-commerce business.

Recent Developments

As a result of the U.S. trade policies beginning in 2025, we incurred tariff charges on certain products we import from overseas manufacturers. Certain of these tariffs were imposed by the administration utilizing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act(IEEPA). In February 2026, the United States Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs and the government immediately ceased collecting such tariffs. While this ruling prohibits the imposition of tariffs under IEEPA it does not provide for a refund mechanism, and we cannot assure as to when or how much of the tariffs the Company previously paid under IEEPA will be refunded.

In addition, the ruling does not prohibit the imposition of tariffs pursuant to other statutes. For instance, in response to the ruling the administration imposed a blanket 10% on all products importers pursuant to section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Products

We operate in two segments: Zig-Zag products and Stoker’s products segments. In our Zig-Zag products segment, we principally market and distribute (i) rolling papers, tubes, and related products; (ii) finished cigars and make-your-own (“MYO”) cigar wraps; and (iii) lighters and other accessories. In addition, we have a majority stake in Turning Point Brands Canada which is a specialty marketing and distribution firm focused on building brands in the Canadian cannabis accessories, tobacco and alternative products categories. In our Stoker’s products segment, we (i) manufacture and market moist snuff tobacco (“MST”) and (ii) contract for and market FRE®, our modern oral product; and (iii) contract for and market loose-leaf chewing tobacco products.

38

Table of Contents

Our portfolio of brands includes some of the most widely recognized names in the alternative smoking accessories and OTP industries such as Zig-Zag® and Stoker’s®. The following table sets forth the market share and category rank of our core products and demonstrates their industry positions within measured distribution channels:

Brand

Product

TPB Segment

Market Share(1)

Category Rank(1)

Zig-Zag®

Cigarette Papers

Zig-Zag Products

32.7
%

#1 premium, #1 overall

Zig-Zag®

MYO Cigar Wraps

Zig-Zag Products

34.3
%

#1 overall

Stoker’s®

Moist Snuff

Stoker’s Products

8.1
%

#2 discount, #5

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04917825070742288. Price 60.31; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.9315600294791229 → FY2025 3.105340529031717. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.35 per share

- 2016-11: $14.52 per share

- 2016-12: $12.25 per share

- 2017-01: $13.28 per share

- 2017-02: $13.17 per share

- 2017-03: $15.60 per share

- 2017-04: $15.81 per share

- 2017-05: $16.75 per share

- 2017-06: $15.34 per share

- 2017-07: $15.42 per share

- 2017-08: $17.20 per share

- 2017-09: $17.00 per share

- 2017-10: $17.50 per share

- 2017-11: $17.44 per share

- 2017-12: $21.13 per share

- 2018-01: $22.00 per share

- 2018-02: $20.90 per share

- 2018-03: $19.44 per share

- 2018-04: $21.22 per share

- 2018-05: $27.08 per share

- 2018-06: $31.90 per share

- 2018-07: $33.46 per share

- 2018-08: $33.66 per share

- 2018-09: $41.46 per share

- 2018-10: $41.10 per share

- 2018-11: $29.80 per share

- 2018-12: $27.22 per share

- 2019-01: $35.41 per share

- 2019-02: $40.89 per share

- 2019-03: $46.09 per share

- 2019-04: $42.77 per share

- 2019-05: $49.23 per share

- 2019-06: $48.98 per share

- 2019-07: $37.13 per share

- 2019-08: $35.85 per share

- 2019-09: $23.06 per share

- 2019-10: $20.87 per share

- 2019-11: $27.61 per share

- 2019-12: $28.60 per share

- 2020-01: $22.84 per share

- 2020-02: $26.15 per share

- 2020-03: $21.11 per share

- 2020-04: $23.30 per share

- 2020-05: $23.99 per share

- 2020-06: $24.91 per share

- 2020-07: $32.88 per share

- 2020-08: $28.90 per share

- 2020-09: $27.90 per share

- 2020-10: $37.47 per share

- 2020-11: $39.02 per share

- 2020-12: $44.56 per share

- 2021-01: $47.10 per share

- 2021-02: $49.20 per share

- 2021-03: $52.17 per share

- 2021-04: $48.82 per share

- 2021-05: $42.77 per share

- 2021-06: $45.77 per share

- 2021-07: $53.02 per share

- 2021-08: $49.76 per share

- 2021-09: $47.75 per share

- 2021-10: $38.17 per share

- 2021-11: $38.00 per share

- 2021-12: $37.78 per share

- 2022-01: $35.23 per share

- 2022-02: $33.52 per share

- 2022-03: $34.01 per share

- 2022-04: $31.39 per share

- 2022-05: $29.24 per share

- 2022-06: $27.13 per share

- 2022-07: $24.00 per share

- 2022-08: $23.32 per share

- 2022-09: $21.23 per share

- 2022-10: $23.56 per share

- 2022-11: $22.02 per share

- 2022-12: $21.63 per share

- 2023-01: $23.21 per share

- 2023-02: $23.90 per share

- 2023-03: $21.00 per share

- 2023-04: $23.79 per share

- 2023-05: $20.94 per share

- 2023-06: $24.01 per share

- 2023-07: $23.85 per share

- 2023-08: $24.62 per share

- 2023-09: $23.09 per share

- 2023-10: $20.05 per share

- 2023-11: $22.83 per share

- 2023-12: $26.32 per share

- 2024-01: $24.29 per share

- 2024-02: $25.30 per share

- 2024-03: $29.30 per share

- 2024-04: $28.84 per share

- 2024-05: $32.81 per share

- 2024-06: $32.09 per share

- 2024-07: $37.72 per share

- 2024-08: $39.64 per share

- 2024-09: $43.15 per share

- 2024-10: $47.23 per share

- 2024-11: $61.90 per share

- 2024-12: $60.10 per share

- 2025-01: $63.74 per share

- 2025-02: $70.30 per share

- 2025-03: $59.44 per share

- 2025-04: $61.38 per share

- 2025-05: $74.32 per share

- 2025-06: $75.77 per share

- 2025-07: $82.94 per share

- 2025-08: $99.50 per share

- 2025-09: $98.86 per share

- 2025-10: $89.90 per share

- 2025-11: $100.16 per share

- 2025-12: $108.40 per share

- 2026-01: $121.15 per share

- 2026-02: $136.99 per share

- 2026-03: $86.79 per share

- 2026-04: $80.68 per share

- 2026-05: $84.93 per share

- 2026-06: $84.81 per share

- 2026-07: $74.61 per share

- 2026-08: $80.97 per share

- 2026-09: $58.70 per share

- 2026-10: $60.31 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $11.49 per share, central $13.08 per share, high $15.19 per share

- FY2018: low $14.41 per share, central $16.39 per share, high $19.04 per share

- FY2019: low $17.16 per share, central $19.00 per share, high $21.46 per share

- FY2020: low $17.35 per share, central $20.44 per share, high $23.56 per share

- FY2021: low $23.65 per share, central $27.75 per share, high $31.47 per share

- FY2022: low $20.81 per share, central $22.92 per share, high $25.72 per share

- FY2023: low $21.81 per share, central $24.06 per share, high $27.07 per share

- FY2024: low $25.07 per share, central $28.25 per share, high $32.48 per share

- FY2025: low $42.66 per share, central $47.37 per share, high $53.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1290677/000143774926006405/tpb20251231_10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.