# Trinity Industries (TRN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TRN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:30.466Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $25.47 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.96 per share, central $11.13 per share, high $12.70 per share. Buy at or below the central value $11.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:30.466Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.8% at the stated quote. About 5.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: -0.09×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.17×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 37.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -2.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.9%

- FY2017: 8.5%

- FY2018: 3.9%

- FY2019: 4.1%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: 3.0%

- FY2022: 4.2%

- FY2023: 6.1%

- FY2024: 6.1%

- FY2025: 4.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.07×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$55M

- Net income, five-year total: $740M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -13.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: -0.94×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.28×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.5% vs 6.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.77 to 1.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -8.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.5%

- Market cap gain: -$850M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$2.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -8.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -9.8%

- Per-share value change: -$2.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.18

- Average buyback yield: 7.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $207M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.31

- FY2017: $4.62

- FY2018: $1.09

- FY2019: $1.08

- FY2020: -$1.27

- FY2021: $1.75

- FY2022: $0.71

- FY2023: $1.27

- FY2024: $1.64

- FY2025: $3.05

### accounting: fail

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -1.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.56×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.42×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.31×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.2%

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: -2.9%

- FY2020: -9.2%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: 0.8%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -1.3%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Jan 2025 · "TRN Q1 Earnings Call: Slower Railcar Orders Offset by Leasing Strength and Margin Gains" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales -5.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:43.226Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-15: TRN Q1 Earnings Call: Slower Railcar Orders Offset by Leasing Strength and Margin Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trn-q1-earnings-call-slower-115058788.html))

- 2026-01-06: Trinity Industries, Inc. Completes Railcar Partnership Restructuring; Raises EPS Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trinity-industries-inc-completes-railcar-115800422.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -5.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $3.7B 

- FY2018: $2.5B 

- FY2019: $2.8B 

- FY2020: $1.7B 

- FY2021: $1.5B 

- FY2022: $2.0B 

- FY2023: $3.0B 

- FY2024: $3.1B 

- FY2025: $2.2B 

- FY2026: $2.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 26.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 24.7% 

- FY2017: 25.0% 

- FY2018: 22.7% 

- FY2019: 20.9% 

- FY2020: 24.1% 

- FY2021: 23.4% 

- FY2022: 18.6% 

- FY2023: 17.7% 

- FY2024: 21.7% 

- FY2025: 26.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are USD 2.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 2156900000; grossProfit 572700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); TRN.US: Trinity Industries, Inc. provides railcar products and services under the TrinityRail trade name in North America. The company operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet leasing, management, and administrative services, as well as railcar maintenance and modification services, and other railcar logistics products and services. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 101,485 railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and manufactures and sells railcars and related parts and components. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the refined products and chemicals, energy, agriculture, construction and metals, and consumer products markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.7% to 26.6% during 2023–25; it earns 4.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08857777614571093],[2017,0.08503817503213516],[2018,0.03859755500308075],[2019,0.0408281928549452],[2020,-0.018727038547640223],[2021,0.029921678932721584],[2022,0.04181649308639028],[2023,0.060718759090782864],[2024,0.06060274753710764],[2025,0.044549920314185705]]; median 0.043183206700287996. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 80 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 712700000; cash acquisitions 47500000; owner earnings 219500000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2164009111617312.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 690400000; upkeep 276400000; cash acquisitions 80400000; owner earnings 60100000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 12.825291181364392.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 416900000; upkeep 293200000; cash acquisitions 62200000; owner earnings 106000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.519811320754717.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 301900000; upkeep 293800000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 138400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.18135838150289.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,66700000],[2017,72600000],[2018,77400000],[2019,82100000],[2020,91700000],[2021,88500000],[2022,76900000],[2023,86000000],[2024,93200000],[2025,98700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 80000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); TRN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.234 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1651014458647312. Price 25.47; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2544470013659166 → FY2025 -2.8552472858866103. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $15.37 per share

- 2016-11: $20.01 per share

- 2016-12: $19.99 per share

- 2017-01: $19.83 per share

- 2017-02: $19.32 per share

- 2017-03: $19.11 per share

- 2017-04: $19.37 per share

- 2017-05: $18.37 per share

- 2017-06: $20.18 per share

- 2017-07: $19.73 per share

- 2017-08: $20.76 per share

- 2017-09: $22.97 per share

- 2017-10: $23.41 per share

- 2017-11: $25.67 per share

- 2017-12: $26.97 per share

- 2018-01: $24.82 per share

- 2018-02: $23.50 per share

- 2018-03: $23.49 per share

- 2018-04: $22.94 per share

- 2018-05: $24.83 per share

- 2018-06: $24.67 per share

- 2018-07: $27.43 per share

- 2018-08: $25.80 per share

- 2018-09: $26.38 per share

- 2018-10: $20.55 per share

- 2018-11: $23.83 per share

- 2018-12: $20.59 per share

- 2019-01: $23.38 per share

- 2019-02: $23.41 per share

- 2019-03: $21.73 per share

- 2019-04: $21.56 per share

- 2019-05: $19.28 per share

- 2019-06: $20.75 per share

- 2019-07: $19.60 per share

- 2019-08: $17.47 per share

- 2019-09: $19.68 per share

- 2019-10: $19.78 per share

- 2019-11: $21.04 per share

- 2019-12: $22.15 per share

- 2020-01: $20.33 per share

- 2020-02: $20.35 per share

- 2020-03: $16.07 per share

- 2020-04: $19.29 per share

- 2020-05: $19.97 per share

- 2020-06: $21.29 per share

- 2020-07: $19.53 per share

- 2020-08: $20.47 per share

- 2020-09: $19.50 per share

- 2020-10: $18.84 per share

- 2020-11: $22.85 per share

- 2020-12: $26.39 per share

- 2021-01: $27.81 per share

- 2021-02: $32.10 per share

- 2021-03: $28.49 per share

- 2021-04: $27.64 per share

- 2021-05: $27.78 per share

- 2021-06: $26.89 per share

- 2021-07: $27.11 per share

- 2021-08: $29.03 per share

- 2021-09: $27.17 per share

- 2021-10: $28.05 per share

- 2021-11: $26.50 per share

- 2021-12: $30.20 per share

- 2022-01: $28.73 per share

- 2022-02: $28.86 per share

- 2022-03: $34.36 per share

- 2022-04: $27.74 per share

- 2022-05: $24.86 per share

- 2022-06: $24.22 per share

- 2022-07: $25.95 per share

- 2022-08: $24.38 per share

- 2022-09: $21.35 per share

- 2022-10: $28.53 per share

- 2022-11: $30.63 per share

- 2022-12: $29.57 per share

- 2023-01: $28.77 per share

- 2023-02: $27.91 per share

- 2023-03: $24.36 per share

- 2023-04: $23.95 per share

- 2023-05: $21.15 per share

- 2023-06: $25.71 per share

- 2023-07: $26.22 per share

- 2023-08: $25.07 per share

- 2023-09: $24.35 per share

- 2023-10: $20.83 per share

- 2023-11: $24.96 per share

- 2023-12: $26.59 per share

- 2024-01: $25.14 per share

- 2024-02: $25.38 per share

- 2024-03: $27.85 per share

- 2024-04: $26.02 per share

- 2024-05: $31.45 per share

- 2024-06: $29.92 per share

- 2024-07: $33.06 per share

- 2024-08: $33.01 per share

- 2024-09: $34.84 per share

- 2024-10: $34.28 per share

- 2024-11: $37.70 per share

- 2024-12: $35.10 per share

- 2025-01: $37.83 per share

- 2025-02: $31.09 per share

- 2025-03: $28.06 per share

- 2025-04: $25.10 per share

- 2025-05: $25.74 per share

- 2025-06: $27.01 per share

- 2025-07: $23.30 per share

- 2025-08: $28.42 per share

- 2025-09: $28.04 per share

- 2025-10: $27.37 per share

- 2025-11: $26.52 per share

- 2025-12: $26.44 per share

- 2026-01: $28.74 per share

- 2026-02: $34.18 per share

- 2026-03: $32.18 per share

- 2026-04: $32.61 per share

- 2026-05: $32.44 per share

- 2026-06: $34.58 per share

- 2026-07: $31.24 per share

- 2026-08: $28.82 per share

- 2026-09: $25.54 per share

- 2026-10: $25.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $29.68 per share, central $36.19 per share, high $41.46 per share

- FY2017: low $22.53 per share, central $24.70 per share, high $27.60 per share

- FY2018: low $8.53 per share, central $9.60 per share, high $11.03 per share

- FY2024: low $15.16 per share, central $16.83 per share, high $19.06 per share

- FY2025: low $10.55 per share, central $11.74 per share, high $13.33 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:15.858Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.