# Trainline (TRN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TRN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:10.209Z. Financial observations: FY2020–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 215.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 138.34 per share, central GBX 155.35 per share, high GBX 177.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 155.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:10.209Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 5.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: -1.49×

- FY2022: -0.05×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- FY2026: 0.27×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 77.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 79.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 6

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 3.5%

- FY2021: -81.1%

- FY2022: -2.0%

- FY2023: 6.0%

- FY2024: 8.4%

- FY2025: 14.0%

- FY2026: 18.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 174M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 181M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.4 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.21×

- FY2023: 1.14×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 0.76×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -2.0% vs 14.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.18 to 0.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP -0.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.13

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.46

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -2.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: GBP -0.18

- FY2021: GBP -0.19

- FY2022: GBP -0.02

- FY2023: GBP 0.04

- FY2024: GBP 0.07

- FY2025: GBP 0.13

- FY2026: GBP 0.19

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.29×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.45×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: -18.3%

- FY2021: 5.0%

- FY2022: -32.9%

- FY2023: -2.8%

- FY2024: -12.9%

- FY2025: -12.1%

- FY2026: -7.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 50% since Dec 2024 · "London Tube strikes and rail fare freeze held back sales growth, Trainline says" (uk.finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.942Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years

- 2026-09-11: London Tube strikes and rail fare freeze held back sales growth, Trainline says ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-tube-strikes-rail-fare-083459311.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28/reports/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.html; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2020: GBP 261M 

- FY2021: GBP 67M 

- FY2022: GBP 189M 

- FY2023: GBP 327M 

- FY2024: GBP 397M 

- FY2025: GBP 442M 

- FY2026: GBP 453M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 82.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28/reports/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.html; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2020: 57.6% 

- FY2021: 72.6% 

- FY2022: 81.1% 

- FY2023: 77.1% 

- FY2024: 77.0% 

- FY2025: 79.7% 

- FY2026: 82.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are GBP 452.7 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.json (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: revenue 452684000; grossProfit 373874000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TRN.LSE: Trainline plc engages in the operation of an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets worldwide. It operates in three segments: UK Consumer, International Consumer, and Trainline Solutions. The UK Consumer segment provides travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys within the United Kingdom. Its International Consumer segment offers travel apps and websites for individual travelers for journeys between the United Kingdom and outside the United Kingdom. The Trainline Solutions segment provides travel portal platforms for its own branded business units, corporates, and travel management companies; and white label e-commerce platforms for train operating companies within the United Kingdom, as well as operates Platform One Solutions. Trainline plc was founded in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 77% to 82.6% during 2024–26; it earns 6% on its capital.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2025-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2025-02-28-T01.json (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 77%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.json (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 79.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.json (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 82.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); 7-year return on capital observations [[2020,0.035290973826892],[2021,-0.8105348947292597],[2022,-0.019728096896202703],[2023,0.05976550711570544],[2024,0.08440280375415801],[2025,0.13988065295424262],[2026,0.18330243595675202]]; median 0.05976550711570544. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 1.7% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 1 of 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TRN.LSE.json#2023-02-28 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 35219000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 24155600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TRN.LSE.json#2024-02-29 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 39883000; cash acquisitions 866000; owner earnings 33299400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.026006474591133776.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TRN.LSE.json#2025-02-28 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 42311000; cash acquisitions 358000; owner earnings 57713600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.006203043996562335.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/TRN.L (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: growth capex 789093.2273813263; upkeep 52682906.772618674; cash acquisitions 232000; owner earnings 60980693.227381326. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.016744532955273766.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Dividend observations: [[2020,51900000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.json (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: cash repurchases 14631000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TRN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.733 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0634650907943464. Price 215; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2019-06: GBX 412.15 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 428.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 475.50 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 419.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 416.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 467.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 507.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 472.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 464.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 340.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 379.40 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 487.60 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 434.40 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 409.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 396.20 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 363.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 275.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 453.80 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 464.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 408.20 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 517.50 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 459.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 457.60 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 284.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 293.60 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 338.40 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 365.80 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 351.40 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 316.80 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 272.60 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 279.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 224.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 203.60 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 250.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 283.60 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 318.70 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 288.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 396.20 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 345.70 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 315.70 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 332.70 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 334.40 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 274.60 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 283.80 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 255.70 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 248.80 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 249.40 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 244.80 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 261.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 263.40 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 232.60 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 279.20 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 260.40 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 285.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 321.80 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 330.40 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 309.60 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 370.40 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 298.40 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 321.40 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 314.40 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 340.60 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 300.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 329.40 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 389.20 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 407.80 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 432.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 360.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 306.60 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 271.60 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 290.80 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 270.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 278.60 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 273.80 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 268.60 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 279.20 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 251.60 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 236.20 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 220.40 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 204.40 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 195.30 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 227.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 238.20 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 220.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 204.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 237.20 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 199.10 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 197.90 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 215.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2025: low GBX 92.16 per share, central GBX 102.84 per share, high GBX 117.05 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 111.67 per share, central GBX 125.40 per share, high GBX 143.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71/2026-02-28/ESEF/GB/0/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28/reports/213800HO26VXTFJ4MO71-2026-02-28-T01.html); period 2026-02-28, filed 2026-05-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Trainline

TRN · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 215.00
Buy up to: GBX 155.35
Expected / yr: 7.9% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

3 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 523.9% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

7y median: 9.1%
Worst year: -148.6%
Latest · 2026: 27.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -2% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

7y median: 6.0%
Worst year: -81.1%
Latest · 2026: 18.3%

Each $1 of profit left $0.96 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.96×
Annual median: 0.98×
Latest · 2026: 0.76×

Per-share value rose from -0.18 to 0.13, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

7y median: GBP 0.04
Worst year: GBP -0.19
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.19

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -7.6% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

7y median: -12.1%
Worst year: 5.0%
Latest · 2026: -7.6%

Profit record · fail 3 loss years in 7 (at most 2), mean operating margin -10.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.11 GBP. 3 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed. Mean operating margin over the last ten years is negative.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2019-06 · Price GBX 412.15; 2019-07 · Price GBX 428.00; 2019-08 · Price GBX 475.50; 2019-09 · Price GBX 419.00; 2019-10 · Price GBX 416.50; 2019-11 · Price GBX 467.00; 2019-12 · Price GBX 507.00; 2020-01 · Price GBX 472.00; 2020-02 · Price GBX 464.00; 2020-03 · Price GBX 340.00; 2020-04 · Price GBX 379.40; 2020-05 · Price GBX 487.60; 2020-06 · Price GBX 434.40; 2020-07 · Price GBX 409.00; 2020-08 · Price GBX 396.20; 2020-09 · Price GBX 363.00; 2020-10 · Price GBX 275.00; 2020-11 · Price GBX 453.80; 2020-12 · Price GBX 464.00; 2021-01 · Price GBX 408.20; 2021-02 · Price GBX 517.50; 2021-03 · Price GBX 459.00; 2021-04 · Price GBX 457.60; 2021-05 · Price GBX 284.00; 2021-06 · Price GBX 293.60; 2021-07 · Price GBX 338.40; 2021-08 · Price GBX 365.80; 2021-09 · Price GBX 351.40; 2021-10 · Price GBX 316.80; 2021-11 · Price GBX 272.60; 2021-12 · Price GBX 279.00; 2022-01 · Price GBX 224.00; 2022-02 · Price GBX 203.60; 2022-03 · Price GBX 250.00; 2022-04 · Price GBX 283.60; 2022-05 · Price GBX 318.70; 2022-06 · Price GBX 288.00; 2022-07 · Price GBX 396.20; 2022-08 · Price GBX 345.70; 2022-09 · Price GBX 315.70; 2022-10 · Price GBX 332.70; 2022-11 · Price GBX 334.40; 2022-12 · Price GBX 274.60; 2023-01 · Price GBX 283.80; 2023-02 · Price GBX 255.70; 2023-03 · Price GBX 248.80; 2023-04 · Price GBX 249.40; 2023-05 · Price GBX 244.80; 2023-06 · Price GBX 261.00; 2023-07 · Price GBX 263.40; 2023-08 · Price GBX 232.60; 2023-09 · Price GBX 279.20; 2023-10 · Price GBX 260.40; 2023-11 · Price GBX 285.20; 2023-12 · Price GBX 321.80; 2024-01 · Price GBX 330.40; 2024-02 · Price GBX 309.60; 2024-03 · Price GBX 370.40; 2024-04 · Price GBX 298.40; 2024-05 · Price GBX 321.40; 2024-06 · Price GBX 314.40; 2024-07 · Price GBX 340.60; 2024-08 · Price GBX 300.00; 2024-09 · Price GBX 329.40; 2024-10 · Price GBX 389.20; 2024-11 · Price GBX 407.80; 2024-12 · Price GBX 432.00; 2025-01 · Price GBX 360.00 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-02 · Price GBX 306.60 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-03 · Price GBX 271.60 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-04 · Price GBX 290.80 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-05 · Price GBX 270.60 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-06 · Price GBX 278.60 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-07 · Price GBX 273.80 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-08 · Price GBX 268.60 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-09 · Price GBX 279.20 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-10 · Price GBX 251.60 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-11 · Price GBX 236.20 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2025-12 · Price GBX 220.40 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2026-01 · Price GBX 204.40 · Value 102.84 · Buy at or below 102.84; 2026-02 · Price GBX 195.30 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-03 · Price GBX 227.00 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-04 · Price GBX 238.20 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-05 · Price GBX 220.00 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-06 · Price GBX 204.00 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-07 · Price GBX 237.20 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-08 · Price GBX 199.10 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-09 · Price GBX 197.90 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-10 · Price GBX 215.00 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40; 2026-10 · Price GBX 215.00 · Value 125.40 · Buy at or below 125.40

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 138.34 – GBX 177.98
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 155.35
Discount to value	1 − 215.00 / 155.35 = -38.4%
Return / year	About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 11.28/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 15.04/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 453M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 61M

Owner earnings

Operating margin27.0%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -202M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares417M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·