# T. Rowe Price Group (TROW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TROW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T19:03:56.938Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $101.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $133.35 per share, central $183.26 per share, high $212.66 per share. Buy at or below the central value $183.26 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T19:03:56.938Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.1% at the stated quote. About 16.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.40×

- FY2017: 0.43×

- FY2018: 0.44×

- FY2019: 0.42×

- FY2020: 0.44×

- FY2021: 0.48×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.31×

- FY2024: 0.33×

- FY2025: 0.30×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 37.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 29.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 35.9%

- FY2017: 42.1%

- FY2018: 43.4%

- FY2019: 38.2%

- FY2020: 42.4%

- FY2021: 56.9%

- FY2022: 34.6%

- FY2023: 27.0%

- FY2024: 31.5%

- FY2025: 29.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $10B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 15.9%

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.95×

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: fail

- $1 retained earnings test: 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.1% vs 29.3%

- market cap gain below cumulative retained earnings

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: $3.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $9.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.6%

- Per-share value change: $4.55

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.85

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.15

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $20B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 29.3%

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 2.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 12.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.84×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.27×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.8%

- FY2017: 16.8%

- FY2018: 2.8%

- FY2019: 6.5%

- FY2020: 4.3%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: -6.9%

- FY2023: 4.6%

- FY2024: 3.1%

- FY2025: 2.3%

## Holders

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 52% since Oct 2021 · "Cost pressures are becoming increasingly important factors in shaping the outlook for T." (finance.yahoo.com, Mar 2026) · sales +3.1%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-02: T Rowe Price's first-quarter profit falls on fund outflow ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/t-rowe-prices-first-quarter-123510209.html))

- 2025-08-01: T. Rowe Price Q2 Earnings Beat on High AUM, Revenues Fall, Stock Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-rowe-price-q2-earnings-160600566.html))

- 2026-02-04: T. Rowe Price Stock Down 6.4% as Q4 Earnings Miss, Expenses Rise Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-rowe-price-stock-down-175200136.html))

- 2026-04-30: T. Rowe Price Stock Gains as Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, AUM Rises Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/t-rowe-price-stock-gains-164500252.html))

- 2026-05-12: ETF Growth And Dividend Stability Shape T. Rowe Price Group Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/etf-growth-dividend-stability-shape-121445640.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: $4.3B 

- FY2017: $4.9B 

- FY2018: $5.4B 

- FY2019: $5.6B 

- FY2020: $6.2B 

- FY2021: $7.7B 

- FY2022: $6.5B 

- FY2023: $6.5B 

- FY2024: $7.1B 

- FY2025: $7.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 51.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2022: 55.0% 

- FY2023: 49.6% 

- FY2024: 51.9% 

- FY2025: 51.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are USD 7.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 7314800000; grossProfit 4584100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 49.6% to 51.9% during 2023–25; it earns 37.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 51.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.35905353728489486],[2017,0.420982800982801],[2018,0.4342470743359874],[2019,0.3819730045164978],[2020,0.42367508298243206],[2021,0.5692190252394178],[2022,0.3462938262881461],[2023,0.2704948867985006],[2024,0.31503972338772385],[2025,0.29317772043148105]]; median 0.3705132709006963. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 620.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 3512161.169819623; upkeep 144787838.83018038; owner earnings 1042012161.1698196. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0033705567945355648.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 42500000; upkeep 143600000; owner earnings 1345800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03157972952890474.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 9000000; upkeep 159500000; owner earnings 1640400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.005486466715435259.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 13800000; upkeep 190800000; owner earnings 1924700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00716994856341248.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 25000000; upkeep 189600000; owner earnings 2126500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011756407241946862.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 34300000; upkeep 204800000; owner earnings 2808300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.012213794822490475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 237600000; owner earnings 1369100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 307900000; owner earnings 1431400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 423400000; owner earnings 1933600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 274200000; owner earnings 2028000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,540800000],[2017,563100000],[2018,694300000],[2019,733900000],[2020,845800000],[2021,1701900000],[2022,1107400000],[2023,1121700000],[2024,1135600000],[2025,1143000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 620900000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); TROW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.699 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"A majority of our revenues are based on contracts with commingled vehicles" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); A majority of our revenues are based on contracts with commingled vehicles

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.031990536824032356. Price 105.83; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.715216558068225 → FY2025 9.993191103041307. Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $64.01 per share

- 2016-11: $74.06 per share

- 2016-12: $75.26 per share

- 2017-01: $67.44 per share

- 2017-02: $71.21 per share

- 2017-03: $68.15 per share

- 2017-04: $70.89 per share

- 2017-05: $70.44 per share

- 2017-06: $74.21 per share

- 2017-07: $82.72 per share

- 2017-08: $84.36 per share

- 2017-09: $90.65 per share

- 2017-10: $92.90 per share

- 2017-11: $102.92 per share

- 2017-12: $104.93 per share

- 2018-01: $111.63 per share

- 2018-02: $111.90 per share

- 2018-03: $107.97 per share

- 2018-04: $113.82 per share

- 2018-05: $121.42 per share

- 2018-06: $116.09 per share

- 2018-07: $119.08 per share

- 2018-08: $115.89 per share

- 2018-09: $109.18 per share

- 2018-10: $96.99 per share

- 2018-11: $99.36 per share

- 2018-12: $92.32 per share

- 2019-01: $93.46 per share

- 2019-02: $100.43 per share

- 2019-03: $100.12 per share

- 2019-04: $107.50 per share

- 2019-05: $101.14 per share

- 2019-06: $109.71 per share

- 2019-07: $113.39 per share

- 2019-08: $110.62 per share

- 2019-09: $114.25 per share

- 2019-10: $115.80 per share

- 2019-11: $123.56 per share

- 2019-12: $121.84 per share

- 2020-01: $133.53 per share

- 2020-02: $118.01 per share

- 2020-03: $97.65 per share

- 2020-04: $115.63 per share

- 2020-05: $120.90 per share

- 2020-06: $123.50 per share

- 2020-07: $138.10 per share

- 2020-08: $139.21 per share

- 2020-09: $128.22 per share

- 2020-10: $126.66 per share

- 2020-11: $143.41 per share

- 2020-12: $151.39 per share

- 2021-01: $156.48 per share

- 2021-02: $162.14 per share

- 2021-03: $171.60 per share

- 2021-04: $179.20 per share

- 2021-05: $191.35 per share

- 2021-06: $197.97 per share

- 2021-07: $204.16 per share

- 2021-08: $223.87 per share

- 2021-09: $196.70 per share

- 2021-10: $216.88 per share

- 2021-11: $199.95 per share

- 2021-12: $196.64 per share

- 2022-01: $154.43 per share

- 2022-02: $144.56 per share

- 2022-03: $151.19 per share

- 2022-04: $123.04 per share

- 2022-05: $127.09 per share

- 2022-06: $113.61 per share

- 2022-07: $123.47 per share

- 2022-08: $120.00 per share

- 2022-09: $105.01 per share

- 2022-10: $106.16 per share

- 2022-11: $124.91 per share

- 2022-12: $109.06 per share

- 2023-01: $116.47 per share

- 2023-02: $112.28 per share

- 2023-03: $112.90 per share

- 2023-04: $112.33 per share

- 2023-05: $107.16 per share

- 2023-06: $112.02 per share

- 2023-07: $123.26 per share

- 2023-08: $112.23 per share

- 2023-09: $104.87 per share

- 2023-10: $90.50 per share

- 2023-11: $100.13 per share

- 2023-12: $107.69 per share

- 2024-01: $108.45 per share

- 2024-02: $113.35 per share

- 2024-03: $121.92 per share

- 2024-04: $109.57 per share

- 2024-05: $117.83 per share

- 2024-06: $115.31 per share

- 2024-07: $114.21 per share

- 2024-08: $106.04 per share

- 2024-09: $108.93 per share

- 2024-10: $109.86 per share

- 2024-11: $123.84 per share

- 2024-12: $113.09 per share

- 2025-01: $116.92 per share

- 2025-02: $105.72 per share

- 2025-03: $91.87 per share

- 2025-04: $88.55 per share

- 2025-05: $93.59 per share

- 2025-06: $96.50 per share

- 2025-07: $101.45 per share

- 2025-08: $107.62 per share

- 2025-09: $102.64 per share

- 2025-10: $102.53 per share

- 2025-11: $102.38 per share

- 2025-12: $102.38 per share

- 2026-01: $105.68 per share

- 2026-02: $94.63 per share

- 2026-03: $90.14 per share

- 2026-04: $102.88 per share

- 2026-05: $104.53 per share

- 2026-06: $113.69 per share

- 2026-07: $111.75 per share

- 2026-08: $111.28 per share

- 2026-09: $104.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $65.04 per share, central $90.63 per share, high $105.52 per share

- FY2019: low $70.33 per share, central $97.47 per share, high $113.27 per share

- FY2020: low $74.13 per share, central $102.14 per share, high $118.44 per share

- FY2021: low $80.52 per share, central $112.45 per share, high $131.05 per share

- FY2022: low $94.45 per share, central $131.85 per share, high $153.63 per share

- FY2023: low $104.75 per share, central $138.28 per share, high $160.52 per share

- FY2024: low $94.29 per share, central $105.74 per share, high $120.98 per share

- FY2025: low $133.35 per share, central $183.26 per share, high $212.66 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113169/000162828026008002/trow-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.