# TC Energy (TRP.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TRP.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:49.274Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 84.61 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 37.09 per share, central CAD 42.04 per share, high CAD 48.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 42.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:49.274Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.34×

- FY2018: 0.42×

- FY2019: 0.44×

- FY2020: 0.45×

- FY2021: 0.44×

- FY2022: 0.41×

- FY2023: 0.44×

- FY2024: 0.42×

- FY2025: 0.44×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.46×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 50.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 55.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.8%

- FY2017: 8.3%

- FY2018: 7.8%

- FY2019: 7.4%

- FY2020: 8.3%

- FY2021: 7.6%

- FY2022: 4.2%

- FY2023: 5.7%

- FY2024: 6.7%

- FY2025: 7.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.51×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 7.1B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 14B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: -4.64×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.84×

- FY2025: 0.98×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.8% vs 6.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.28 to 3.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.1%

- Market cap gain: CAD 33B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CAD -7.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 36.5%

- Per-share value change: CAD 3.10

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD 0.28

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 3.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CAD 12B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CAD 30B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CAD 0.28

- FY2017: CAD 3.59

- FY2018: CAD 4.05

- FY2019: CAD 4.41

- FY2020: CAD 4.91

- FY2021: CAD 1.99

- FY2022: CAD 0.74

- FY2023: CAD 2.82

- FY2024: CAD 4.53

- FY2025: CAD 3.38

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.88×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.48×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: -2.4%

- FY2018: -2.9%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: -4.9%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -2.5%

- FY2025: -3.2%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years · sales +5.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.892Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-10: TC Energy Reports ANR Pipeline Leak, Warns Gas Outage May Last Days ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tc-energy-reports-anr-pipeline-173800435.html))

- 2025-11-06: TC Energy Posts Lower Q3 Comparable Earnings, Updates 3-Year Financial Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tc-energy-posts-lower-q3-115917565.html))

- 2026-02-13: TC Energy beats profit estimates on natural gas, power demand ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tc-energy-beats-fourth-quarter-113715777.html))

- 2026-05-01: TC Energy's Q1 Comparable Earnings Climb YoY, Approves Columbia Gas Expansion Project ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/tc-energy-apos-q1-comparable-110931379.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: CAD 13B 

- FY2018: CAD 14B 

- FY2019: CAD 13B 

- FY2020: CAD 13B 

- FY2021: CAD 13B 

- FY2022: CAD 12B 

- FY2023: CAD 13B 

- FY2024: CAD 14B 

- FY2025: CAD 15B 

- FY2026: CAD 16B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 50%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 36.5% 

- FY2017: 38.0% 

- FY2018: 45.7% 

- FY2019: 49.1% 

- FY2020: 50.2% 

- FY2021: 49.9% 

- FY2022: 47.1% 

- FY2023: 50.3% 

- FY2024: 48.0% 

- FY2025: 50.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are CAD 15.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 15200000000; grossProfit 7604000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48% to 50.3% during 2023–25; it earns 7.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 50.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 50%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04826554361077247],[2017,0.0834360115490005],[2018,0.07789282172267264],[2019,0.07390636871967088],[2020,0.0831190622647797],[2021,0.07625266919894914],[2022,0.041606696462389216],[2023,0.05693448303999643],[2024,0.06688859271986511],[2025,0.07088675846140333]]; median 0.0723965635905371. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 72.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 5.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 3363000000; upkeep 1939000000; owner earnings 233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 14.433476394849786.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 3774776945.412727; upkeep 3754223054.587273; owner earnings 1457776945.4127269. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.5894063953275164.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 1914507345.0858164; upkeep 4009492654.9141836; owner earnings 391507345.0858164. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.890093044528108.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 5354698936.049987; upkeep 2794301063.950013; owner earnings 2830091229.184505. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.8920587721099547.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 2905680937.8322763; upkeep 3452319062.1677237; owner earnings 3931480937.8322763. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7390805103163997.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 2501000000; upkeep 2769000000; owner earnings 3432800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7285597762759264.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Incremental return on capital 0.05381792985227844, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,1536000000],[2017,1494000000],[2018,1729000000],[2019,1958000000],[2020,3146000000],[2021,3458000000],[2022,3298000000],[2023,2879000000],[2024,4052000000],[2025,3621000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 250000000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TRP.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.047 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1292265736458308. Price 84.61; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.61864406779661 → FY2025 3.2975984630163304. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-11: CAD 55.00 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 55.19 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 55.96 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 55.66 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 55.94 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 57.78 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 57.16 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 56.35 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 58.07 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 57.80 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 56.22 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 55.83 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 56.41 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 55.77 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 51.62 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 50.59 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 48.57 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 49.63 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 49.48 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 51.85 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 53.34 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 50.67 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 47.64 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 45.25 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 49.64 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 44.44 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 50.94 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 53.65 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 54.71 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 58.29 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 60.06 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 59.18 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 58.91 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 62.19 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 62.53 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 60.52 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 61.26 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 63.04 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 66.15 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 63.77 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 57.02 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 58.40 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 56.56 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 52.87 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 55.65 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 55.60 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 50.96 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 47.80 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 52.08 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 47.17 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 49.96 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 48.59 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 52.52 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 55.43 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 55.53 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 55.92 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 55.44 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 54.60 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 55.57 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 61.03 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 54.62 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 53.63 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 59.84 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 62.08 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 64.28 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 61.94 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 66.74 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 60.78 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 62.23 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 57.69 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 50.72 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 54.55 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 54.33 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 49.21 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 52.26 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 49.51 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 47.92 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 51.33 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 48.17 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 48.81 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 43.08 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 44.48 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 42.58 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 43.54 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 46.39 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 47.18 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 48.35 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 48.93 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 49.63 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 44.96 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 47.91 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 47.27 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 53.44 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 56.90 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 58.61 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 64.76 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 68.26 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 66.99 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 65.49 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 64.75 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 67.96 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 69.65 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 69.54 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 66.48 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 66.16 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 71.52 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 75.67 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 70.38 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 75.50 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 75.58 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 79.84 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 87.65 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 87.11 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 91.08 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 91.86 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 93.92 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 94.40 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 86.78 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 82.39 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 87.69 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 18.21 per share, central CAD 20.60 per share, high CAD 23.77 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 19.06 per share, central CAD 21.56 per share, high CAD 24.89 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 3.27 per share, central CAD 3.75 per share, high CAD 4.33 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 4.61 per share, central CAD 5.19 per share, high CAD 5.97 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 34.04 per share, central CAD 38.74 per share, high CAD 44.99 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:34.453Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1232384/000123238426000015/trp-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.