# Tractor Supply (TSCO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TSCO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T09:07:15.667Z. Financial observations: FY2009–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $33.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $15.27 per share, central $17.37 per share, high $20.17 per share. Buy at or below the central value $17.37 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T09:07:15.667Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.6% at the stated quote. About 6.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.0 pp

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 35.0%

- FY2017: 33.5%

- FY2018: 30.0%

- FY2019: 14.0%

- FY2020: 18.9%

- FY2021: 20.5%

- FY2022: 19.0%

- FY2023: 17.6%

- FY2024: 16.0%

- FY2025: 14.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.73×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.88×

- FY2022: 0.74×

- FY2023: 0.67×

- FY2024: 0.69×

- FY2025: 0.68×

### management: fail

- $1 retained earnings test: 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 33.5% vs 16.0%

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 14.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 35.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -5.7%

- Per-share value change: -$1.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.27

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.04

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.79

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $675M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 33.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.0%

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.20×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.0%

- FY2017: -7.3%

- FY2018: -5.3%

- FY2019: -4.7%

- FY2020: -9.2%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -4.9%

## Holders

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 50% since Aug 2025 · "TSCO Cuts 2026 Outlook as Demand Weakens and Higher Costs Persist" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +4.3%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: Farming supplies retailer Tractor Supply cuts 2025 profit forecast on tariff-based uncertainty ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/farming-supplies-retailer-tractor-supply-122718245.html))

- 2025-06-16: 1 in 5 Tractor Supply customers now raise chickens, thanks to egg inflation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-in-5-tractor-supply-customers-now-raise-chickens-thanks-to-egg-inflation-203222183.html))

- 2025-07-24: Tractor Supply beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; reaffirms FY25 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4471292-tractor-supply-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-reaffirms-fy25-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-03-10: Tractor Supply Confronts Slower Growth And Margin Pressure Testing Its Model ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tractor-supply-confronts-slower-growth-002356961.html))

- 2026-04-21: TSCO's Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Higher Comparable Store Sales Aid ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tscos-q1-earnings-miss-estimates-173900503.html))

- 2026-08-07: TSCO Cuts 2026 Outlook as Demand Weakens and Higher Costs Persist ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tsco-cuts-2026-outlook-demand-170600599.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000014/tsco-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $7.3B 

- FY2018: $7.9B 

- FY2019: $8.4B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $16B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000014/tsco-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 34.3% 

- FY2018: 34.2% 

- FY2019: 34.4% 

- FY2020: 35.4% 

- FY2021: 35.2% 

- FY2022: 35.0% 

- FY2023: 35.9% 

- FY2024: 36.3% 

- FY2025: 36.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are USD 15.5 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 15524046000; grossProfit 5160497000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.9% to 36.4% during 2023–25; it earns 19% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3495320752070936],[2017,0.3352547975085971],[2018,0.30025094198703073],[2019,0.14032760465876876],[2020,0.1892223434129331],[2021,0.2046009490378658],[2022,0.190450024779205],[2023,0.17566931544152012],[2024,0.15962312980626986],[2025,0.14474177916887324]]; median 0.18983618409606906. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 28.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 9.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 72005800.13265043; upkeep 154011199.86734957; owner earnings 402512800.13265043. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17889070883937233.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 64557587.79040289; upkeep 185843412.2095971; owner earnings 373387587.7904029. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17289698399573367.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 90558750.32763189; upkeep 187971249.6723681; owner earnings 492815750.3276319. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18375782484108302.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 21472000; upkeep 195978000; owner earnings 531218000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04042031708262898.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 76878000; upkeep 217124000; owner earnings 711685000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10802250995875984.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 358273000; upkeep 270158000; owner earnings 949465000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3773419767974596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 430307000; upkeep 343062000; owner earnings 1034880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.41580376468769326.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 128551254.13905823; upkeep 625331745.8609418; owner earnings 817928254.1390582. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15716690735224667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 120673024.6592865; upkeep 663373975.3407135; owner earnings 836661024.6592865. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.144231679381059.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 249305104.3254845; upkeep 645464895.6745155; owner earnings 887570104.3254845. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2808849724776904.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.09823895081089831, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,122272000],[2017,133828000],[2018,147087000],[2019,162699000],[2020,174656000],[2021,239006000],[2022,409603000],[2023,449620000],[2024,472492000],[2025,487669000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 361261000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); TSCO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.347 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"Supply Chain and Third-Party Vendor Risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000014/tsco-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Supply Chain and Third-Party Vendor Risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10858130662139978. Price 31.73; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4636705761993496 → FY2025 1.3966817354660308. Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.53 per share

- 2016-11: $15.01 per share

- 2016-12: $15.16 per share

- 2017-01: $14.73 per share

- 2017-02: $14.18 per share

- 2017-03: $13.79 per share

- 2017-04: $12.38 per share

- 2017-05: $11.03 per share

- 2017-06: $10.84 per share

- 2017-07: $11.22 per share

- 2017-08: $11.90 per share

- 2017-09: $12.66 per share

- 2017-10: $12.05 per share

- 2017-11: $13.65 per share

- 2017-12: $14.95 per share

- 2018-01: $15.25 per share

- 2018-02: $12.99 per share

- 2018-03: $12.60 per share

- 2018-04: $13.60 per share

- 2018-05: $14.86 per share

- 2018-06: $15.30 per share

- 2018-07: $15.61 per share

- 2018-08: $17.66 per share

- 2018-09: $18.18 per share

- 2018-10: $18.38 per share

- 2018-11: $19.03 per share

- 2018-12: $16.69 per share

- 2019-01: $17.08 per share

- 2019-02: $19.07 per share

- 2019-03: $19.55 per share

- 2019-04: $20.70 per share

- 2019-05: $20.16 per share

- 2019-06: $21.76 per share

- 2019-07: $21.76 per share

- 2019-08: $20.38 per share

- 2019-09: $18.09 per share

- 2019-10: $19.00 per share

- 2019-11: $18.89 per share

- 2019-12: $18.69 per share

- 2020-01: $18.59 per share

- 2020-02: $17.70 per share

- 2020-03: $16.91 per share

- 2020-04: $20.29 per share

- 2020-05: $24.40 per share

- 2020-06: $26.36 per share

- 2020-07: $28.55 per share

- 2020-08: $29.77 per share

- 2020-09: $28.67 per share

- 2020-10: $26.64 per share

- 2020-11: $28.16 per share

- 2020-12: $28.12 per share

- 2021-01: $28.35 per share

- 2021-02: $31.79 per share

- 2021-03: $35.42 per share

- 2021-04: $37.72 per share

- 2021-05: $36.34 per share

- 2021-06: $37.21 per share

- 2021-07: $36.19 per share

- 2021-08: $38.85 per share

- 2021-09: $40.52 per share

- 2021-10: $43.43 per share

- 2021-11: $45.07 per share

- 2021-12: $47.72 per share

- 2022-01: $43.66 per share

- 2022-02: $40.76 per share

- 2022-03: $46.67 per share

- 2022-04: $40.29 per share

- 2022-05: $37.47 per share

- 2022-06: $38.77 per share

- 2022-07: $38.30 per share

- 2022-08: $37.03 per share

- 2022-09: $37.18 per share

- 2022-10: $43.95 per share

- 2022-11: $45.26 per share

- 2022-12: $44.99 per share

- 2023-01: $45.60 per share

- 2023-02: $46.65 per share

- 2023-03: $47.01 per share

- 2023-04: $47.68 per share

- 2023-05: $41.92 per share

- 2023-06: $44.22 per share

- 2023-07: $44.80 per share

- 2023-08: $43.70 per share

- 2023-09: $40.61 per share

- 2023-10: $38.51 per share

- 2023-11: $40.60 per share

- 2023-12: $43.01 per share

- 2024-01: $44.92 per share

- 2024-02: $50.86 per share

- 2024-03: $52.34 per share

- 2024-04: $54.62 per share

- 2024-05: $57.06 per share

- 2024-06: $54.00 per share

- 2024-07: $52.66 per share

- 2024-08: $53.51 per share

- 2024-09: $58.19 per share

- 2024-10: $53.10 per share

- 2024-11: $56.73 per share

- 2024-12: $53.06 per share

- 2025-01: $54.36 per share

- 2025-02: $55.35 per share

- 2025-03: $55.10 per share

- 2025-04: $50.62 per share

- 2025-05: $48.40 per share

- 2025-06: $52.77 per share

- 2025-07: $56.95 per share

- 2025-08: $61.76 per share

- 2025-09: $56.87 per share

- 2025-10: $54.11 per share

- 2025-11: $54.78 per share

- 2025-12: $50.01 per share

- 2026-01: $50.88 per share

- 2026-02: $51.84 per share

- 2026-03: $45.30 per share

- 2026-04: $35.10 per share

- 2026-05: $31.53 per share

- 2026-06: $31.61 per share

- 2026-07: $30.77 per share

- 2026-08: $34.90 per share

- 2026-09: $31.29 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $19.81 per share, central $22.54 per share, high $26.18 per share

- FY2018: low $31.15 per share, central $35.44 per share, high $41.16 per share

- FY2019: low $43.57 per share, central $62.24 per share, high $73.11 per share

- FY2020: low $56.05 per share, central $75.95 per share, high $87.54 per share

- FY2021: low $71.48 per share, central $99.81 per share, high $116.30 per share

- FY2022: low $13.89 per share, central $15.82 per share, high $18.37 per share

- FY2023: low $17.76 per share, central $24.25 per share, high $28.40 per share

- FY2024: low $15.49 per share, central $17.62 per share, high $20.46 per share

- FY2025: low $15.27 per share, central $17.37 per share, high $20.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000014/tsco-20251227.htm); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.