# Tesla (TSLA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TSLA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:33.828Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $362.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $47.90 per share, central $63.92 per share, high $73.26 per share. Buy at or below the central value $63.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:33.828Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.1% at the stated quote. About 4.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.80×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.14×

- FY2018: -0.02×

- FY2019: -0.00×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.2%

- FY2017: -10.0%

- FY2018: -2.0%

- FY2019: -0.4%

- FY2020: 9.4%

- FY2021: 28.1%

- FY2022: 44.6%

- FY2023: 20.7%

- FY2024: 11.3%

- FY2025: 6.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.82×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $36B

- Net income, five-year total: $44B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 13.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.37×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -5.2% vs 11.3%

- Per-share earnings: -0.45 to 2.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Market cap gain: $1.65T

- Cumulative retained earnings: $42B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 6.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $2.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.04

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $618M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $40B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -5.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.29

- FY2017: -$0.78

- FY2018: -$0.38

- FY2019: -$0.32

- FY2020: $0.22

- FY2021: $1.67

- FY2022: $3.62

- FY2023: $4.30

- FY2024: $2.04

- FY2025: $1.08

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -7.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 19.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.89×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.4%

- FY2017: -6.6%

- FY2018: -10.3%

- FY2019: -9.5%

- FY2020: -10.0%

- FY2021: -9.4%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: 1.6%

- FY2024: -6.4%

- FY2025: -7.9%

## Holders

- [Josh Tarasoff](https://gigainvestors.com/GLC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 21% since Oct 2025 · "Elon Musk's Tesla posts cash burn as capex surges on AI, robotaxi push" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +9.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:43.895Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 31.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-25: Tesla Shares Rise as U.S. Moves to Ease Rules on Self-Driving Cars ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shares-rise-u-moves-205634198.html))

- 2025-05-28: Tesla stock rises on robotaxi service launch plans ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-rises-robotaxi-launch-204232897.html))

- 2025-09-04: Tesla Stock Rises on Record China Sales as Turkey Demand Explodes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-rises-record-china-133748429.html))

- 2026-05-27: Tesla Stock Rises After Europe Deliveries Soar 46% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/tesla-stock-rises-europe-deliveries-143519928.html))

- 2026-07-22: Elon Musk's Tesla posts cash burn as capex surges on AI, robotaxi push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/elon-musks-tesla-posts-cash-200902600.html))

- 2026-08-18: Tesla Lands 500-Truck Order From Einride in World's Largest Tesla Semi Deployment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/tesla-lands-500-truck-order-142828690.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm; observed 2026-01-29.

- FY2017: $12B 

- FY2018: $21B 

- FY2019: $25B 

- FY2020: $32B 

- FY2021: $54B 

- FY2022: $81B 

- FY2023: $97B 

- FY2024: $98B 

- FY2025: $95B 

- FY2026: $104B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm; observed 2026-01-29.

- FY2016: 22.8% 

- FY2017: 18.9% 

- FY2018: 18.8% 

- FY2019: 16.6% 

- FY2020: 21.0% 

- FY2021: 25.3% 

- FY2022: 25.6% 

- FY2023: 18.2% 

- FY2024: 17.9% 

- FY2025: 18.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto manufacturers; annual sales are USD 94.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm (filed 2026-01-29); FY2025: revenue 94827000000; grossProfit 17094000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TSLA.US: Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.9% to 18.2% during 2023–25; it earns 8.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm (filed 2026-01-29); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.05188102170063331],[2017,-0.09963559375867952],[2018,-0.02043875441755018],[2019,-0.0036943409013893594],[2020,0.0935997197064062],[2021,0.2812616934093019],[2022,0.44630778107331914],[2023,0.2074428371441904],[2024,0.11321569357530718],[2025,0.06885403280937251]]; median 0.08122687625788935. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2020: growth capex 920000000; upkeep 2322000000; owner earnings 721000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2760055478502081.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2021: growth capex 5103000000; upkeep 2911000000; owner earnings 5644000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9041459957476967.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2022: growth capex 3629000000; upkeep 3543000000; owner earnings 12587000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28831333915945023.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2023: growth capex 4232000000; upkeep 4667000000; owner earnings 14974000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2826232135701883.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); FY2024: growth capex 506878819.067564; upkeep 10835121180.932436; owner earnings 1662878819.067564. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30482005859680694.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm (filed 2026-01-29); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 8527000000; owner earnings 1415000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 17.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TSLA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 17.821 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We will need to maintain and significantly grow our access to battery cells" (SEC filing, Jan 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm (filed 2026-01-29); We will need to maintain and significantly grow our access to battery cells

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 31.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-29); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4479674204176386. Price 362.44; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.5916427823980386 → FY2025 0.40107709750566894. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $12.63 per share

- 2016-12: $14.25 per share

- 2017-01: $16.80 per share

- 2017-02: $16.67 per share

- 2017-03: $18.55 per share

- 2017-04: $20.94 per share

- 2017-05: $22.73 per share

- 2017-06: $24.11 per share

- 2017-07: $21.56 per share

- 2017-08: $23.73 per share

- 2017-09: $22.74 per share

- 2017-10: $22.10 per share

- 2017-11: $20.59 per share

- 2017-12: $20.76 per share

- 2018-01: $23.62 per share

- 2018-02: $22.87 per share

- 2018-03: $17.74 per share

- 2018-04: $19.59 per share

- 2018-05: $18.98 per share

- 2018-06: $22.86 per share

- 2018-07: $19.88 per share

- 2018-08: $20.11 per share

- 2018-09: $17.65 per share

- 2018-10: $22.49 per share

- 2018-11: $23.37 per share

- 2018-12: $22.19 per share

- 2019-01: $20.47 per share

- 2019-02: $21.33 per share

- 2019-03: $18.66 per share

- 2019-04: $15.91 per share

- 2019-05: $12.34 per share

- 2019-06: $14.90 per share

- 2019-07: $16.11 per share

- 2019-08: $15.04 per share

- 2019-09: $16.06 per share

- 2019-10: $20.99 per share

- 2019-11: $22.00 per share

- 2019-12: $27.89 per share

- 2020-01: $43.37 per share

- 2020-02: $44.53 per share

- 2020-03: $34.93 per share

- 2020-04: $52.13 per share

- 2020-05: $55.67 per share

- 2020-06: $71.99 per share

- 2020-07: $95.38 per share

- 2020-08: $166.11 per share

- 2020-09: $143.00 per share

- 2020-10: $129.35 per share

- 2020-11: $189.20 per share

- 2020-12: $235.22 per share

- 2021-01: $264.51 per share

- 2021-02: $225.17 per share

- 2021-03: $222.64 per share

- 2021-04: $236.48 per share

- 2021-05: $208.41 per share

- 2021-06: $226.57 per share

- 2021-07: $229.07 per share

- 2021-08: $245.24 per share

- 2021-09: $258.49 per share

- 2021-10: $371.33 per share

- 2021-11: $381.59 per share

- 2021-12: $352.26 per share

- 2022-01: $312.24 per share

- 2022-02: $290.14 per share

- 2022-03: $359.20 per share

- 2022-04: $290.25 per share

- 2022-05: $252.75 per share

- 2022-06: $224.47 per share

- 2022-07: $297.15 per share

- 2022-08: $275.61 per share

- 2022-09: $265.25 per share

- 2022-10: $227.54 per share

- 2022-11: $194.70 per share

- 2022-12: $123.18 per share

- 2023-01: $173.22 per share

- 2023-02: $205.71 per share

- 2023-03: $207.46 per share

- 2023-04: $164.31 per share

- 2023-05: $203.93 per share

- 2023-06: $261.77 per share

- 2023-07: $267.43 per share

- 2023-08: $258.08 per share

- 2023-09: $250.22 per share

- 2023-10: $200.84 per share

- 2023-11: $240.08 per share

- 2023-12: $248.48 per share

- 2024-01: $187.29 per share

- 2024-02: $201.88 per share

- 2024-03: $175.79 per share

- 2024-04: $183.28 per share

- 2024-05: $178.08 per share

- 2024-06: $197.88 per share

- 2024-07: $232.07 per share

- 2024-08: $214.11 per share

- 2024-09: $261.63 per share

- 2024-10: $249.85 per share

- 2024-11: $345.16 per share

- 2024-12: $403.84 per share

- 2025-01: $404.60 per share

- 2025-02: $292.98 per share

- 2025-03: $259.16 per share

- 2025-04: $282.16 per share

- 2025-05: $346.46 per share

- 2025-06: $317.66 per share

- 2025-07: $308.27 per share

- 2025-08: $333.87 per share

- 2025-09: $444.72 per share

- 2025-10: $456.56 per share

- 2025-11: $430.17 per share

- 2025-12: $449.72 per share

- 2026-01: $430.41 per share

- 2026-02: $402.51 per share

- 2026-03: $371.75 per share

- 2026-04: $381.63 per share

- 2026-05: $435.79 per share

- 2026-06: $420.60 per share

- 2026-07: $311.21 per share

- 2026-08: $367.95 per share

- 2026-09: $354.81 per share

- 2026-10: $375.23 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $13.20 per share, central $16.32 per share, high $18.14 per share

- FY2023: low $47.38 per share, central $64.34 per share, high $74.22 per share

- FY2024: low $49.71 per share, central $66.77 per share, high $76.70 per share

- FY2025: low $50.27 per share, central $66.69 per share, high $76.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:19.134Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-01-29.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.