# Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2330.TW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:29.161Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: TWD. Reporting currency: TWD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: TWD 2,440.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low TWD 1,122.43 per share, central TWD 1,576.70 per share, high TWD 1,830.07 per share. Buy at or below the central value TWD 1,576.70 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:29.161Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; TW 10-year bond 2.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.39×

- FY2018: 0.37×

- FY2019: 0.35×

- FY2020: 0.42×

- FY2021: 0.41×

- FY2022: 0.50×

- FY2023: 0.43×

- FY2024: 0.46×

- FY2025: 0.51×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.56×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 34.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 29.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 56.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 36.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 32.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 33.6%

- FY2017: 32.1%

- FY2018: 31.2%

- FY2019: 28.1%

- FY2020: 35.4%

- FY2021: 34.3%

- FY2022: 44.3%

- FY2023: 29.6%

- FY2024: 38.9%

- FY2025: 47.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: TWD 4.71T

- Net income, five-year total: TWD 5.30T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 40.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.76×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.49×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.1% vs 38.9%

- Per-share earnings: 12.79 to 44.67 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: TWD 35.49T

- Cumulative retained earnings: TWD 3.66T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.9%

- Per-share value change: TWD 31.88

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: TWD 12.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: TWD 44.67

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: TWD 17B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: TWD 7.20T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 38.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: TWD 12.79

- FY2017: TWD 13.30

- FY2018: TWD 14.00

- FY2019: TWD 13.65

- FY2020: TWD 19.70

- FY2021: TWD 22.84

- FY2022: TWD 38.29

- FY2023: TWD 32.34

- FY2024: TWD 44.67

- FY2025: TWD 66.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.79×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.37×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.0%

- FY2017: -12.1%

- FY2018: -10.1%

- FY2019: -11.5%

- FY2020: -11.3%

- FY2021: -14.0%

- FY2022: -12.4%

- FY2023: -7.3%

- FY2024: -10.0%

- FY2025: -8.1%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Rolfe](https://gigainvestors.com/WP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years · "TSMC CEO Warns Chip Supply Won’t Meet AI-Fueled Demand for Years" (finance.yahoo.com, Jun 2026) · sales +16.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.391Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-10: TSMC’s August Sales Climb 34% in Latest Sign of Solid AI Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-august-sales-climb-34-054008792.html))

- 2025-10-16: TSMC Hikes Sales Outlook Amid AI Boom ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tsmc-hikes-sales-outlook-amid-080955740.html))

- 2026-01-15: TSMC smashes forecasts with record profit, flags more U.S. factories ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tsmc-smashes-forecasts-record-profit-100501507.html))

- 2026-02-10: Taiwan Semiconductor Reports 37% January Revenue Growth on AI Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-semiconductor-reports-37-january-174521257.html))

- 2026-04-10: TSMC Q1 revenue rockets 35% on strong AI demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/article/tsmc-q1-revenue-rockets-35-on-strong-ai-demand-154926235.html))

- 2026-05-27: Here's How Taiwan Semiconductor Is Scaling Up to Meet Surging AI Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/heres-taiwan-semiconductor-scaling-meet-145800651.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +16.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-04-16.

- FY2017: TWD 977B 

- FY2018: TWD 1.03T 

- FY2019: TWD 1.07T 

- FY2020: TWD 1.34T 

- FY2021: TWD 1.59T 

- FY2022: TWD 2.26T 

- FY2023: TWD 2.16T 

- FY2024: TWD 2.89T 

- FY2025: TWD 3.81T 

- FY2026: TWD 4.44T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 59.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-04-16.

- FY2016: 50.1% 

- FY2017: 50.6% 

- FY2018: 48.3% 

- FY2019: 46.0% 

- FY2020: 53.1% 

- FY2021: 51.6% 

- FY2022: 59.6% 

- FY2023: 54.4% 

- FY2024: 56.1% 

- FY2025: 59.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are TWD 3.8 trillion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-16); FY2025: revenue 3809054000000; grossProfit 2281294000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2330.TW: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.4% to 59.9% during 2023–25; it earns 34% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 54.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.33638330982961323],[2017,0.3211938094819673],[2018,0.3124508448660956],[2019,0.2810583830030844],[2020,0.3544835227673774],[2021,0.3433813444060056],[2022,0.4427233432596153],[2023,0.2958134257184483],[2024,0.3887503306656804],[2025,0.4769698649381921]]; median 0.3398823271178094. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 34.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 40.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2016: growth capex 109265300000; upkeep 223828400000; owner earnings 331713700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.32939640418831057.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2017: growth capex 32792678523.496826; upkeep 303095821476.5032; owner earnings 302045178523.4968. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10856878657623004.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2018: growth capex 30135900000; upkeep 292546300000; owner earnings 363052700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08300695739213618.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2019: growth capex 42261600094.29736; upkeep 427490499905.70264; owner earnings 210333340094.29736. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2009267768740348.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2020: growth capex 185056500000; upkeep 331724600000; owner earnings 506631870200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.36526817771441494.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2021: growth capex 290527912712.1267; upkeep 558908487287.8733; owner earnings 451692769912.1267. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6431980586464704.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2022: growth capex 652372100000; upkeep 437254300000; owner earnings 986970580600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6609843422115068.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 955398400000; owner earnings 409554140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2024: growth capex 302185000000; upkeep 662796600000; owner earnings 1152629140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2621701894505287.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-16); FY2025: growth capex 584315000000; upkeep 688096000000; owner earnings 1711564001600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3413924337353275.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); Incremental return on capital 0.4029669112742919, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); Dividend observations: [[2016,155582300000],[2017,181512700000],[2018,207443000000],[2019,259303800000],[2020,259303800000],[2021,265786400000],[2022,285234200000],[2023,291721900000],[2024,363055200000],[2025,466779000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2330.TW SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.025 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Restrictions on exports to China could cut sales.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-04-16);  in the use of export control restrictions and sanctions to target certain countries and

entities, any expansion of the extraterritorial jurisdiction of such measures, or a complete or partial ban on semiconductor

products sales to certain entities could impact not only our ability to continue supplying products to those customers, but

also our customers’ demand for our products, and could even lead to changes in semiconductor supply chains. For

example, in October 2022 and October 2023, the U.S. adopted additional export controls (the “October Rules”) over

specified countries (including China) under the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (“U.S. EAR”) on certain advanced

computing integrated circuits (“ICs”). In January 2025, the U.S. further issued new rules to reinforce controls on exports of

advanced computing ICs, pursuant to which we may need to obtain an export license prior to shipping products using 16-

nanometer or below process to specified destinations unless specific conditions are met. As a result, shipments of certain

products may be delayed or prohibited due to the license requirements and our financial results may be adversely affected.

The October Rules also impose license requirements for items subject to the U.S. EAR where the items are destined to a

semiconductor fabrication facility in China that fabricates specified advanced node ICs as well as for U.S. persons’

activities supporting such facility or semiconductor manufacturing items. In response, we obtained from the U.S.

Department of Commerce a Validated End-User (the “VEU”) authorization for our fab located in Nanjing, China, which

allowed our fab in Nanjing to receive exports of eligible items from the U.S. without separate licenses. Although the VEU

authorization expired in December 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce has granted TSMC Nanjing Company Limited

(“TSMC Nanjing”) an annual export license that allows U.S. export-controlled items to be supplied to TSMC Nanjing,

which ensures uninterrupted fab operations and product deliveries. However, there is no assurance that this annual export

license will not be terminated, or we can timely get the license renewed in the future.

On the other hand, measures adopted by an affected country to counteract the impact of another country’s actions or

regulations could lead to significant legal liability to multinational corporations including our own. For example, in January

2021, China adopted a blocking statute that, among other matters, entitles Chinese entities incurring damages from a

multinational’s compliance with foreign laws to seek civil remedies. As of the date of this annual report, our current results

of operations have not been materially affected by the expanded export control regulations or the novel rules or measures

adopted to counteract them. Nevertheless, depending on future develo

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 18.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.240447530693139. Price 2440; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 11.679385338741662 → FY2025 66.00556877202996. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (TWD per share)

- 2016-10: TWD 188.50 per share

- 2016-11: TWD 183.00 per share

- 2016-12: TWD 181.50 per share

- 2017-01: TWD 185.50 per share

- 2017-02: TWD 189.00 per share

- 2017-03: TWD 189.00 per share

- 2017-04: TWD 194.50 per share

- 2017-05: TWD 203.00 per share

- 2017-06: TWD 208.50 per share

- 2017-07: TWD 214.50 per share

- 2017-08: TWD 216.50 per share

- 2017-09: TWD 216.50 per share

- 2017-10: TWD 243.00 per share

- 2017-11: TWD 226.00 per share

- 2017-12: TWD 229.50 per share

- 2018-01: TWD 255.00 per share

- 2018-02: TWD 246.00 per share

- 2018-03: TWD 247.50 per share

- 2018-04: TWD 227.00 per share

- 2018-05: TWD 224.00 per share

- 2018-06: TWD 216.50 per share

- 2018-07: TWD 246.00 per share

- 2018-08: TWD 256.00 per share

- 2018-09: TWD 262.50 per share

- 2018-10: TWD 234.00 per share

- 2018-11: TWD 225.50 per share

- 2018-12: TWD 225.50 per share

- 2019-01: TWD 221.00 per share

- 2019-02: TWD 239.00 per share

- 2019-03: TWD 245.50 per share

- 2019-04: TWD 259.00 per share

- 2019-05: TWD 235.50 per share

- 2019-06: TWD 239.00 per share

- 2019-07: TWD 259.50 per share

- 2019-08: TWD 259.00 per share

- 2019-09: TWD 272.00 per share

- 2019-10: TWD 298.50 per share

- 2019-11: TWD 305.00 per share

- 2019-12: TWD 331.00 per share

- 2020-01: TWD 320.00 per share

- 2020-02: TWD 316.00 per share

- 2020-03: TWD 274.00 per share

- 2020-04: TWD 304.50 per share

- 2020-05: TWD 292.00 per share

- 2020-06: TWD 313.00 per share

- 2020-07: TWD 425.50 per share

- 2020-08: TWD 426.50 per share

- 2020-09: TWD 433.00 per share

- 2020-10: TWD 432.00 per share

- 2020-11: TWD 480.50 per share

- 2020-12: TWD 530.00 per share

- 2021-01: TWD 591.00 per share

- 2021-02: TWD 606.00 per share

- 2021-03: TWD 587.00 per share

- 2021-04: TWD 600.00 per share

- 2021-05: TWD 597.00 per share

- 2021-06: TWD 595.00 per share

- 2021-07: TWD 580.00 per share

- 2021-08: TWD 614.00 per share

- 2021-09: TWD 580.00 per share

- 2021-10: TWD 590.00 per share

- 2021-11: TWD 596.00 per share

- 2021-12: TWD 615.00 per share

- 2022-01: TWD 636.00 per share

- 2022-02: TWD 604.00 per share

- 2022-03: TWD 597.00 per share

- 2022-04: TWD 538.00 per share

- 2022-05: TWD 560.00 per share

- 2022-06: TWD 476.00 per share

- 2022-07: TWD 509.00 per share

- 2022-08: TWD 505.00 per share

- 2022-09: TWD 422.00 per share

- 2022-10: TWD 390.00 per share

- 2022-11: TWD 490.00 per share

- 2022-12: TWD 448.50 per share

- 2023-01: TWD 522.00 per share

- 2023-02: TWD 511.00 per share

- 2023-03: TWD 533.00 per share

- 2023-04: TWD 502.00 per share

- 2023-05: TWD 558.00 per share

- 2023-06: TWD 576.00 per share

- 2023-07: TWD 565.00 per share

- 2023-08: TWD 549.00 per share

- 2023-09: TWD 523.00 per share

- 2023-10: TWD 529.00 per share

- 2023-11: TWD 577.00 per share

- 2023-12: TWD 593.00 per share

- 2024-01: TWD 628.00 per share

- 2024-02: TWD 690.00 per share

- 2024-03: TWD 779.00 per share

- 2024-04: TWD 790.00 per share

- 2024-05: TWD 821.00 per share

- 2024-06: TWD 966.00 per share

- 2024-07: TWD 934.00 per share

- 2024-08: TWD 944.00 per share

- 2024-09: TWD 957.00 per share

- 2024-10: TWD 1,030.00 per share

- 2024-11: TWD 996.00 per share

- 2024-12: TWD 1,075.00 per share

- 2025-01: TWD 1,135.00 per share

- 2025-02: TWD 1,040.00 per share

- 2025-03: TWD 910.00 per share

- 2025-04: TWD 908.00 per share

- 2025-05: TWD 967.00 per share

- 2025-06: TWD 1,060.00 per share

- 2025-07: TWD 1,160.00 per share

- 2025-08: TWD 1,160.00 per share

- 2025-09: TWD 1,305.00 per share

- 2025-10: TWD 1,500.00 per share

- 2025-11: TWD 1,440.00 per share

- 2025-12: TWD 1,550.00 per share

- 2026-01: TWD 1,775.00 per share

- 2026-02: TWD 1,995.00 per share

- 2026-03: TWD 1,760.00 per share

- 2026-04: TWD 2,135.00 per share

- 2026-05: TWD 2,355.00 per share

- 2026-06: TWD 2,410.00 per share

- 2026-07: TWD 2,425.00 per share

- 2026-08: TWD 2,405.00 per share

- 2026-09: TWD 2,480.00 per share

- 2026-10: TWD 2,490.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (TWD per share)

- FY2016: low TWD 200.76 per share, central TWD 281.94 per share, high TWD 327.22 per share

- FY2017: low TWD 207.03 per share, central TWD 290.75 per share, high TWD 337.44 per share

- FY2018: low TWD 228.84 per share, central TWD 321.56 per share, high TWD 373.28 per share

- FY2019: low TWD 231.77 per share, central TWD 327.97 per share, high TWD 381.62 per share

- FY2020: low TWD 292.26 per share, central TWD 412.66 per share, high TWD 479.81 per share

- FY2021: low TWD 319.94 per share, central TWD 445.96 per share, high TWD 516.25 per share

- FY2022: low TWD 505.73 per share, central TWD 710.47 per share, high TWD 824.67 per share

- FY2023: low TWD 386.98 per share, central TWD 525.18 per share, high TWD 605.66 per share

- FY2024: low TWD 706.75 per share, central TWD 988.05 per share, high TWD 1,144.94 per share

- FY2025: low TWD 964.85 per share, central TWD 1,354.55 per share, high TWD 1,571.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:14.734Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000162828026025362/tsm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

2330 · TW

FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50

A wonderful business at too high a price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price
TWD 2,440.00
Buy up to
TWD 1,576.70
Expected / yr
7.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What could break it
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 14.2% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

10y median
42.5%
Worst year
34.8%
Latest · LTM
56.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 34% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 29.6% (minimum 10%).

10y median
34.0%
Worst year
28.1%
Latest · 2025
47.7%

Each $1 of profit left $0.89 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Five-year totals
0.89×
Annual median
0.99×
Latest · 2025
1.00×

Per-share value rose from 12.79 to 44.67, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

10y median
TWD 21.27
Worst year
TWD 12.79
Latest · 2025
TWD 66.25

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -8.1% of assets (limit 10%).

10y median
-11.2%
Worst year
-7.3%
Latest · 2025
-8.1%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 42.3%, three-year average owner earnings per share 42.08 TWD.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value rangeTWD 1,122.43 – TWD 1,830.07
Buy at or belowCentral value TWD 1,576.70
Discount to value1 − 2440.00 / 1576.70 = -54.8%
Return / yearAbout 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsOwner cash TWD 68.19/share; 12.0% growth fades over 10 years to 3.0%; excess cash TWD 132.24/share today.
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
RevenueTWD 4.44T
4.44T020172026
FY2017 · Revenue: TWD 977B; FY2018 · Revenue: TWD 1.03T; FY2019 · Revenue: TWD 1.07T; FY2020 · Revenue: TWD 1.34T; FY2021 · Revenue: TWD 1.59T; FY2022 · Revenue: TWD 2.26T; FY2023 · Revenue: TWD 2.16T; FY2024 · Revenue: TWD 2.89T; FY2025 · Revenue: TWD 3.81T; FY2026 · Revenue: TWD 4.44T
Revenue
Owner earningsTWD 1.71T
1.71T020162025
FY2016 · Owner earnings: TWD 332B; FY2017 · Owner earnings: TWD 302B; FY2018 · Owner earnings: TWD 363B; FY2019 · Owner earnings: TWD 210B; FY2020 · Owner earnings: TWD 507B; FY2021 · Owner earnings: TWD 452B; FY2022 · Owner earnings: TWD 987B; FY2023 · Owner earnings: TWD 410B; FY2024 · Owner earnings: TWD 1.15T; FY2025 · Owner earnings: TWD 1.71T
Owner earnings
Operating margin56.0%
56.0%0.0%20172026
FY2017 · Operating margin: 39.4%; FY2018 · Operating margin: 37.2%; FY2019 · Operating margin: 34.8%; FY2020 · Operating margin: 42.3%; FY2021 · Operating margin: 40.9%; FY2022 · Operating margin: 49.5%; FY2023 · Operating margin: 42.6%; FY2024 · Operating margin: 45.7%; FY2025 · Operating margin: 50.8%; FY2026 · Operating margin: 56.0%
Operating margin
Net cash / debtTWD 2.00T
2.00T020162025
FY2016 · Net cash / debt: TWD 387B; FY2017 · Net cash / debt: TWD 443B; FY2018 · Net cash / debt: TWD 533B; FY2019 · Net cash / debt: TWD 404B; FY2020 · Net cash / debt: TWD 432B; FY2021 · Net cash / debt: TWD 451B; FY2022 · Net cash / debt: TWD 698B; FY2023 · Net cash / debt: TWD 759B; FY2024 · Net cash / debt: TWD 1.44T; FY2025 · Net cash / debt: TWD 2.00T
Net cash / debt
Diluted shares26B
26B020162025
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 26B; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 26B
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·