# Taylor Wimpey (TW.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TW.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:42.116Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 76.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 130.38 per share, central GBX 146.94 per share, high GBX 169.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 146.94 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:42.116Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.8% at the stated quote. About 17.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.21×

- FY2017: 0.18×

- FY2018: 0.20×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.2%

- FY2017: 21.8%

- FY2018: 25.7%

- FY2019: 24.8%

- FY2020: 7.0%

- FY2021: 16.3%

- FY2022: 17.6%

- FY2023: 8.9%

- FY2024: 7.2%

- FY2025: 7.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 1.7B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -22.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 5.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 41.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 131.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 0.71×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.04×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.2% vs 7.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.17 to 0.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 777M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -11.8%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.11

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.06

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.79

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 7.3M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 4.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.18

- FY2017: GBP 0.17

- FY2018: GBP 0.20

- FY2019: GBP 0.21

- FY2020: GBP 0.06

- FY2021: GBP 0.15

- FY2022: GBP 0.18

- FY2023: GBP 0.10

- FY2024: GBP 0.06

- FY2025: GBP 0.03

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.41×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.45×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.1%

- FY2017: -1.0%

- FY2018: 0.3%

- FY2019: 3.2%

- FY2020: 9.0%

- FY2021: 2.0%

- FY2022: 2.6%

- FY2023: 3.5%

- FY2024: 0.9%

- FY2025: -0.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 56% since Dec 2021 · "Taylor Wimpey trims home completion guidance amid ‘challenging’ market" (uk.finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +13%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.159Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Taylor Wimpey slumps to loss on £222m fire safety hit ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/taylor-wimpey-slumps-loss-222m-122414901.html))

- 2026-01-15: Taylor nudges down annual earnings forecast after budget uncertainty hit sales ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/taylor-nudges-down-annual-earnings-090705559.html))

- 2026-04-28: Taylor Wimpey says house building costs rising amid higher energy prices ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/taylor-wimpey-says-house-building-094433796.html))

- 2026-07-31: Taylor Wimpey trims home completion guidance amid ‘challenging’ market ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/taylor-wimpey-trims-home-completion-123223817.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +13%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: GBP 3.7B 

- FY2017: GBP 4.0B 

- FY2018: GBP 4.1B 

- FY2019: GBP 4.3B 

- FY2020: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2021: GBP 4.3B 

- FY2022: GBP 4.4B 

- FY2023: GBP 3.5B 

- FY2024: GBP 3.4B 

- FY2025: GBP 3.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: 25.6% 

- FY2017: 26.1% 

- FY2018: 26.3% 

- FY2019: 24.1% 

- FY2020: 17.8% 

- FY2021: 24.0% 

- FY2022: 25.6% 

- FY2023: 20.4% 

- FY2024: 19.0% 

- FY2025: 17.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are GBP 3.8 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: revenue 3844600000; grossProfit 658400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.1% to 20.4% during 2023–25; it earns 16.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.24189544414335273],[2017,0.21820118608883884],[2018,0.2571776959243827],[2019,0.2475804715026107],[2020,0.06969780210031494],[2021,0.16285341344025664],[2022,0.17550788327574832],[2023,0.08868823866282059],[2024,0.07204638350319391],[2025,0.07257246711987672]]; median 0.16918064835800248. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 3.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2016: growth capex 1800000; upkeep 3300000; owner earnings 589300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0030544714067537756.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2017: growth capex 1601202.7093182644; upkeep 4098797.2906817356; owner earnings 554601202.7093183. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0028871244806107977.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2400000; owner earnings 667300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 12600000; owner earnings 669220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8000000; owner earnings 219800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 4600000; owner earnings 561020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2100000; owner earnings 456000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6900000; owner earnings 346840000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3400000; owner earnings 222820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 4200000; owner earnings 104500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,355900000],[2017,450500000],[2018,499500000],[2019,599700000],[2020,301500000],[2021,301500000],[2022,323800000],[2023,337900000],[2024,339400000],[2025,330400000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 3300000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TW.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.418 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 14.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.1277121780850325. Price 76.68; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.14817150785168276 → FY2025 0.029378541238756734. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 141.70 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 148.30 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 153.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 167.10 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 180.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 193.10 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 200.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 203.10 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 176.20 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 190.40 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 200.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 195.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 199.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 195.50 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 206.40 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 190.60 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 186.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 184.60 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 191.75 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 190.15 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 178.90 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 174.95 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 167.35 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 171.80 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 161.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 134.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 136.25 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 165.15 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 181.40 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 175.45 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 181.40 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 165.25 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 157.75 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 161.80 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 145.95 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 161.50 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 165.50 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 174.25 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 193.40 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 215.10 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 202.20 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 117.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 147.05 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 143.60 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 142.60 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 118.35 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 122.50 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 108.45 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 105.80 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 153.95 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 165.80 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 146.45 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 157.60 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 180.45 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 179.60 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 171.40 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 158.95 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 164.60 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 182.90 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 155.80 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 154.55 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 157.90 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 175.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 150.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 150.25 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 130.70 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 126.90 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 130.10 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 116.65 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 127.10 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 108.30 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 88.30 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 93.78 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 103.40 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 101.65 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 117.20 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 123.20 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 118.95 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 128.20 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 114.20 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 102.75 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 114.35 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 114.30 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 117.30 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 110.80 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 129.55 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 147.05 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 148.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 137.85 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 137.05 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 131.90 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 147.15 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 142.15 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 159.35 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 161.05 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 164.30 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 146.30 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 131.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 122.10 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 120.25 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 113.35 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 108.10 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 117.45 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 119.55 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 118.75 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 102.25 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 95.74 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 103.05 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 105.20 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 102.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 107.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 106.75 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 113.05 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 88.72 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 77.82 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 79.78 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 80.68 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 78.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 85.12 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 86.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 76.68 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 179.33 per share, central GBX 202.48 per share, high GBX 233.30 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 200.53 per share, central GBX 225.99 per share, high GBX 259.89 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 231.87 per share, central GBX 261.09 per share, high GBX 299.99 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 273.72 per share, central GBX 352.73 per share, high GBX 409.79 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 150.30 per share, central GBX 168.12 per share, high GBX 191.83 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 245.18 per share, central GBX 339.07 per share, high GBX 394.22 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 268.10 per share, central GBX 364.97 per share, high GBX 424.07 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 166.78 per share, central GBX 193.27 per share, high GBX 221.69 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 119.54 per share, central GBX 133.77 per share, high GBX 152.72 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 126.51 per share, central GBX 142.58 per share, high GBX 163.98 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:30.979Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31/reports/21380089BTRXTD8S3R66-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.