# Twilio (TWLO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TWLO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:36.801Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $273.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 8

- Operating margin variation: 0.89×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.17×

- FY2018: -0.18×

- FY2019: -0.33×

- FY2020: -0.28×

- FY2021: -0.32×

- FY2022: -0.27×

- FY2023: -0.09×

- FY2024: -0.01×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -36.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -72.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 51.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -11.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -66.6%

- FY2017: -72.5%

- FY2018: -79.7%

- FY2019: -37.9%

- FY2020: -27.3%

- FY2021: -42.6%

- FY2022: -34.5%

- FY2023: -18.8%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: 10.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: -$3.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.8%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$782M

- FY2022: -$1.1B

- FY2023: -$782M

- FY2024: $38M

- FY2025: $245M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -72.5% vs -2.2%

- Per-share earnings: -0.70 to -0.66 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Market cap gain: $19B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$8.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.70

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.66

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $6.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$4.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -72.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -2.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.78

- FY2017: -$0.70

- FY2018: -$1.26

- FY2019: -$2.36

- FY2020: -$3.35

- FY2021: -$5.45

- FY2022: -$6.86

- FY2023: -$5.54

- FY2024: -$0.66

- FY2025: $0.21

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -9.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 59.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 29.65×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.69×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.5%

- FY2017: -13.4%

- FY2018: -12.6%

- FY2019: -6.2%

- FY2020: -5.5%

- FY2021: -6.9%

- FY2022: -8.0%

- FY2023: -12.3%

- FY2024: -8.4%

- FY2025: -9.9%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Up 433% since Oct 2023 · "Twilio raises annual revenue growth forecast on AI-driven demand, shares jump" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +10%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:44.505Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-08: Twilio Beats on Q2 Earnings, Stock Dips 11% on Dim Q3 Profit Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twilio-beats-q2-earnings-stock-133900875.html))

- 2025-10-31: How Twilio’s (TWLO) Profit Rebound and Upgraded Guidance Could Reshape Its Investment Story ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twilio-twlo-profit-rebound-upgraded-211546679.html))

- 2026-04-30: Twilio raises annual revenue growth forecast on AI-driven demand, shares jump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/twilio-raises-annual-revenue-growth-213513251.html))

- 2026-05-01: Twilio Delivers Earnings Beat, Strong Guidance As AI Voice Product Ramps ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d8b8542f-1868-3aa5-ba8e-07a9cdd1816b/twilio-delivers-earnings.html))

- 2026-08-09: Why Twilio (TWLO) Is Up 22.3% After Raising 2026 Guidance And Completing $1.2B Buyback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-twilio-twlo-22-3-101146402.html))

- 2026-09-24: Twilio (TWLO) Could Be 12% Undervalued On Raised 2026 Growth Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/twilio-twlo-could-12-undervalued-091404804.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2017: $399M 

- FY2018: $650M 

- FY2019: $1.1B 

- FY2020: $1.8B 

- FY2021: $2.8B 

- FY2022: $3.8B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $4.5B 

- FY2025: $5.1B 

- FY2026: $5.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 48.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24.

- FY2016: 56.5% 

- FY2017: 54.2% 

- FY2018: 53.7% 

- FY2019: 53.7% 

- FY2020: 52.0% 

- FY2021: 48.9% 

- FY2022: 47.4% 

- FY2023: 49.2% 

- FY2024: 51.1% 

- FY2025: 48.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are USD 5.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 5067220000; grossProfit 2478734000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TWLO.US: Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, video interactions, digital engagement centers, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity solutions. It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as Segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected throughout each customer's journey into a unique profile. Twilio Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48.9% to 51.1% during 2023–25; it lost 36.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 51.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.6659358932506325],[2017,-0.7249886803983389],[2018,-0.7968737143407358],[2019,-0.3793159124845809],[2020,-0.27331320992567604],[2021,-0.4261277420533108],[2022,-0.3452325342837378],[2023,-0.18836996589866367],[2024,-0.022253435861138822],[2025,0.09951248434472199]]; median -0.3622742233841594. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 47% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.48937079123764576],[2022,0.47397408633515065],[2023,0.492045513361395]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 868.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 58786000; owner earnings 37795000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 5848000; owner earnings 245430000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,5412000],[2020,8778000],[2021,10388000],[2022,1098000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 868939000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TWLO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.13799999999999998 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 8.6 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Closing price 273.4 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 31.711956241478134; price multiple 8.621353975079037. FY2025 cash earnings/share 1.535963589571003. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $34.12 per share

- 2016-11: $33.92 per share

- 2016-12: $28.85 per share

- 2017-01: $28.83 per share

- 2017-02: $31.72 per share

- 2017-03: $28.87 per share

- 2017-04: $33.05 per share

- 2017-05: $24.31 per share

- 2017-06: $29.11 per share

- 2017-07: $29.17 per share

- 2017-08: $29.28 per share

- 2017-09: $29.85 per share

- 2017-10: $31.95 per share

- 2017-11: $26.66 per share

- 2017-12: $23.60 per share

- 2018-01: $26.24 per share

- 2018-02: $34.16 per share

- 2018-03: $38.18 per share

- 2018-04: $42.21 per share

- 2018-05: $53.97 per share

- 2018-06: $56.02 per share

- 2018-07: $57.89 per share

- 2018-08: $80.66 per share

- 2018-09: $86.28 per share

- 2018-10: $75.22 per share

- 2018-11: $94.49 per share

- 2018-12: $89.30 per share

- 2019-01: $111.32 per share

- 2019-02: $121.69 per share

- 2019-03: $129.18 per share

- 2019-04: $137.14 per share

- 2019-05: $131.99 per share

- 2019-06: $136.35 per share

- 2019-07: $139.11 per share

- 2019-08: $130.47 per share

- 2019-09: $109.96 per share

- 2019-10: $96.56 per share

- 2019-11: $103.28 per share

- 2019-12: $98.28 per share

- 2020-01: $124.34 per share

- 2020-02: $112.64 per share

- 2020-03: $89.49 per share

- 2020-04: $112.30 per share

- 2020-05: $197.60 per share

- 2020-06: $219.42 per share

- 2020-07: $277.42 per share

- 2020-08: $269.76 per share

- 2020-09: $247.09 per share

- 2020-10: $278.97 per share

- 2020-11: $320.09 per share

- 2020-12: $338.50 per share

- 2021-01: $359.43 per share

- 2021-02: $392.88 per share

- 2021-03: $340.76 per share

- 2021-04: $367.80 per share

- 2021-05: $336.00 per share

- 2021-06: $394.16 per share

- 2021-07: $373.59 per share

- 2021-08: $356.96 per share

- 2021-09: $319.05 per share

- 2021-10: $291.36 per share

- 2021-11: $286.15 per share

- 2021-12: $263.34 per share

- 2022-01: $206.12 per share

- 2022-02: $174.80 per share

- 2022-03: $164.81 per share

- 2022-04: $111.82 per share

- 2022-05: $105.17 per share

- 2022-06: $83.81 per share

- 2022-07: $84.80 per share

- 2022-08: $69.58 per share

- 2022-09: $69.14 per share

- 2022-10: $74.37 per share

- 2022-11: $49.02 per share

- 2022-12: $48.96 per share

- 2023-01: $59.84 per share

- 2023-02: $67.21 per share

- 2023-03: $66.63 per share

- 2023-04: $52.61 per share

- 2023-05: $69.62 per share

- 2023-06: $63.62 per share

- 2023-07: $66.03 per share

- 2023-08: $63.71 per share

- 2023-09: $58.53 per share

- 2023-10: $51.26 per share

- 2023-11: $64.68 per share

- 2023-12: $75.87 per share

- 2024-01: $70.33 per share

- 2024-02: $59.59 per share

- 2024-03: $61.15 per share

- 2024-04: $59.88 per share

- 2024-05: $57.40 per share

- 2024-06: $56.81 per share

- 2024-07: $59.13 per share

- 2024-08: $62.76 per share

- 2024-09: $65.22 per share

- 2024-10: $80.65 per share

- 2024-11: $104.54 per share

- 2024-12: $108.08 per share

- 2025-01: $146.58 per share

- 2025-02: $119.93 per share

- 2025-03: $97.91 per share

- 2025-04: $96.71 per share

- 2025-05: $117.70 per share

- 2025-06: $124.36 per share

- 2025-07: $129.00 per share

- 2025-08: $105.61 per share

- 2025-09: $100.09 per share

- 2025-10: $134.88 per share

- 2025-11: $129.69 per share

- 2025-12: $142.24 per share

- 2026-01: $120.46 per share

- 2026-02: $120.96 per share

- 2026-03: $125.82 per share

- 2026-04: $148.06 per share

- 2026-05: $190.64 per share

- 2026-06: $206.33 per share

- 2026-07: $197.35 per share

- 2026-08: $235.63 per share

- 2026-09: $292.46 per share

- 2026-10: $281.59 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000144766926000021/twlo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.