# Texas Instruments (TXN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TXN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:37.457Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $279.12 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $53.56 per share, central $59.95 per share, high $68.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value $59.95 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:37.457Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.3% at the stated quote. About 4.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.41×

- FY2018: 0.43×

- FY2019: 0.40×

- FY2020: 0.41×

- FY2021: 0.49×

- FY2022: 0.51×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: 0.35×

- FY2025: 0.34×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.37×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 6.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 76.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 57.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 42.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 56.8%

- FY2017: 70.8%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 94.7%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 83.1%

- FY2023: 42.4%

- FY2024: 24.0%

- FY2025: 23.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.68×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $22B

- Net income, five-year total: $33B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 14.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 13.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.92×

- FY2022: 0.84×

- FY2023: 0.40×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.70×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 70.8% vs 24.0%

- Per-share earnings: 3.52 to 5.48 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: $84B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $19B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.7%

- Per-share value change: $1.96

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.48

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $172M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $56B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 70.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 24.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.52

- FY2017: $3.64

- FY2018: $5.64

- FY2019: $5.27

- FY2020: $6.00

- FY2021: $8.30

- FY2022: $9.45

- FY2023: $7.11

- FY2024: $5.22

- FY2025: $5.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.43×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.28×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.2%

- FY2017: -9.5%

- FY2018: -9.4%

- FY2019: -9.1%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: 0.1%

- FY2023: 0.3%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Terry Smith](https://gigainvestors.com/FS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Wallace Weitz](https://gigainvestors.com/WIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.9% a year for ten years · "Texas Instruments Can Ride AI Demand to New Highs" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +10%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:44.632Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-24: Texas Instruments (TXN) Falls 13.3% on Weak Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-instruments-txn-falls-13-200429996.html))

- 2025-09-04: Texas Instruments flags demand slowdown after tariff-driven spike ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-instruments-flags-post-april-150514893.html))

- 2025-10-21: Texas Instruments reports soft Q4 guidance; shares slump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-instruments-reports-soft-q4-210053651.html))

- 2025-11-07: Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Slipped on Slower Demand Recovery ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-instruments-incorporated-txn-slipped-121012383.html))

- 2026-01-28: Texas Instruments shares jump as first-quarter outlook signals robust AI data center demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-instruments-shares-jump-first-112650774.html))

- 2026-04-23: Texas Instruments Q1 2026 earnings beat on AI data center demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/texas-instruments-q1-2026-earnings-184147102.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: $15B 

- FY2018: $16B 

- FY2019: $14B 

- FY2020: $14B 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $20B 

- FY2023: $18B 

- FY2024: $16B 

- FY2025: $18B 

- FY2026: $19B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 57%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2016: 61.6% 

- FY2017: 64.3% 

- FY2018: 65.1% 

- FY2019: 63.7% 

- FY2020: 64.1% 

- FY2021: 67.5% 

- FY2022: 68.8% 

- FY2023: 62.9% 

- FY2024: 58.1% 

- FY2025: 57.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 17.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: revenue 17682000000; grossProfit 10083000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TXN.US: Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, multiphase controllers and power stages, and lighting products. This segment also provides signal chain products that sense, condition, and measure real-world signals and convert them into data to be transferred or converted for further processing and control, such as amplifiers, data converters, interface products, motor drives, clocks, and logic and sensing products. The Embedded Processing segment offers microcontrollers, processors, wireless connectivity, and radar products; and applications processors for specific computing activity. It also provides DLP products primarily for use in projecting high-definition images; calculators; and application-specific integrated circuits. Its products are used in various markets, such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, calculators, and others. The company markets and sells its semiconductor products through direct sales and distributors, as well as through its website. Texas Instruments Incorporated was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 57% to 62.9% during 2023–25; it earns 76.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 62.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 57%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5682679503417021],[2017,0.7082124305928712],[2018,1.024791229633806],[2019,0.9470282704467902],[2020,1.0194617853581518],[2021,1.0493027067635488],[2022,0.8306582565323184],[2023,0.42374031690698893],[2024,0.24046601631040765],[2025,0.23494122729846342]]; median 0.7694353435625948. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 30.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 14.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 531000000; owner earnings 4019000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 695000000; owner earnings 3891000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2018: growth capex 162132059.21882415; upkeep 968867940.7811759; owner earnings 5565132059.218824. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02913355109880044.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 847000000; owner earnings 5220000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 649000000; owner earnings 5938000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2021: growth capex 866437395.6005526; upkeep 1595562604.3994474; owner earnings 7127437395.600553. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12156366271773436.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2022: growth capex 431419509.2844963; upkeep 2365580490.7155037; owner earnings 7362419509.284496. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.058597517941004026.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5071000000; owner earnings 2603000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4820000000; owner earnings 1559000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: growth capex 1068073716.7734909; upkeep 3481926283.226509; owner earnings 3518073716.773491. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3035961730082924.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Incremental return on capital 0.14444879707667643, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,1646000000],[2017,2104000000],[2018,2555000000],[2019,3008000000],[2020,3426000000],[2021,3886000000],[2022,4297000000],[2023,4557000000],[2024,4795000000],[2025,4999000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: cash repurchases 1477000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TXN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.27899999999999997 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3061613936007609. Price 279.12; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.4209012464046022 → FY2025 3.853311847506562. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $70.85 per share

- 2016-11: $73.93 per share

- 2016-12: $72.97 per share

- 2017-01: $75.54 per share

- 2017-02: $76.62 per share

- 2017-03: $80.56 per share

- 2017-04: $79.18 per share

- 2017-05: $82.49 per share

- 2017-06: $76.93 per share

- 2017-07: $81.38 per share

- 2017-08: $82.82 per share

- 2017-09: $89.64 per share

- 2017-10: $96.69 per share

- 2017-11: $97.29 per share

- 2017-12: $104.44 per share

- 2018-01: $109.67 per share

- 2018-02: $108.35 per share

- 2018-03: $103.89 per share

- 2018-04: $101.43 per share

- 2018-05: $111.91 per share

- 2018-06: $110.25 per share

- 2018-07: $111.32 per share

- 2018-08: $112.40 per share

- 2018-09: $107.29 per share

- 2018-10: $92.83 per share

- 2018-11: $99.85 per share

- 2018-12: $94.50 per share

- 2019-01: $100.68 per share

- 2019-02: $105.78 per share

- 2019-03: $106.07 per share

- 2019-04: $117.83 per share

- 2019-05: $104.31 per share

- 2019-06: $114.76 per share

- 2019-07: $125.01 per share

- 2019-08: $123.75 per share

- 2019-09: $129.24 per share

- 2019-10: $117.99 per share

- 2019-11: $120.21 per share

- 2019-12: $128.29 per share

- 2020-01: $120.65 per share

- 2020-02: $114.14 per share

- 2020-03: $99.93 per share

- 2020-04: $116.07 per share

- 2020-05: $118.74 per share

- 2020-06: $126.97 per share

- 2020-07: $127.55 per share

- 2020-08: $142.15 per share

- 2020-09: $142.79 per share

- 2020-10: $144.59 per share

- 2020-11: $161.25 per share

- 2020-12: $164.13 per share

- 2021-01: $165.69 per share

- 2021-02: $172.27 per share

- 2021-03: $188.99 per share

- 2021-04: $180.51 per share

- 2021-05: $189.82 per share

- 2021-06: $192.30 per share

- 2021-07: $190.62 per share

- 2021-08: $190.91 per share

- 2021-09: $192.21 per share

- 2021-10: $187.48 per share

- 2021-11: $192.37 per share

- 2021-12: $188.47 per share

- 2022-01: $179.49 per share

- 2022-02: $169.99 per share

- 2022-03: $183.48 per share

- 2022-04: $170.25 per share

- 2022-05: $176.76 per share

- 2022-06: $153.65 per share

- 2022-07: $178.89 per share

- 2022-08: $165.21 per share

- 2022-09: $154.78 per share

- 2022-10: $160.63 per share

- 2022-11: $180.46 per share

- 2022-12: $165.22 per share

- 2023-01: $177.21 per share

- 2023-02: $171.45 per share

- 2023-03: $186.01 per share

- 2023-04: $167.20 per share

- 2023-05: $173.88 per share

- 2023-06: $180.02 per share

- 2023-07: $180.00 per share

- 2023-08: $168.06 per share

- 2023-09: $159.01 per share

- 2023-10: $142.01 per share

- 2023-11: $152.71 per share

- 2023-12: $170.46 per share

- 2024-01: $160.12 per share

- 2024-02: $167.33 per share

- 2024-03: $174.21 per share

- 2024-04: $176.42 per share

- 2024-05: $195.01 per share

- 2024-06: $194.53 per share

- 2024-07: $203.81 per share

- 2024-08: $214.34 per share

- 2024-09: $206.57 per share

- 2024-10: $203.16 per share

- 2024-11: $201.03 per share

- 2024-12: $187.51 per share

- 2025-01: $184.61 per share

- 2025-02: $195.99 per share

- 2025-03: $179.70 per share

- 2025-04: $160.05 per share

- 2025-05: $182.85 per share

- 2025-06: $207.62 per share

- 2025-07: $181.06 per share

- 2025-08: $202.48 per share

- 2025-09: $183.73 per share

- 2025-10: $161.46 per share

- 2025-11: $168.27 per share

- 2025-12: $173.49 per share

- 2026-01: $215.55 per share

- 2026-02: $212.11 per share

- 2026-03: $194.14 per share

- 2026-04: $281.08 per share

- 2026-05: $305.68 per share

- 2026-06: $298.07 per share

- 2026-07: $275.74 per share

- 2026-08: $260.91 per share

- 2026-09: $280.09 per share

- 2026-10: $287.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $42.44 per share, central $47.86 per share, high $55.07 per share

- FY2017: low $48.47 per share, central $54.58 per share, high $62.73 per share

- FY2018: low $65.33 per share, central $88.41 per share, high $103.00 per share

- FY2019: low $71.30 per share, central $101.56 per share, high $118.43 per share

- FY2020: low $69.04 per share, central $77.75 per share, high $89.36 per share

- FY2021: low $113.29 per share, central $160.68 per share, high $187.11 per share

- FY2022: low $123.40 per share, central $173.69 per share, high $202.42 per share

- FY2023: low $105.95 per share, central $143.34 per share, high $166.60 per share

- FY2024: low $76.29 per share, central $85.72 per share, high $98.27 per share

- FY2025: low $47.08 per share, central $52.88 per share, high $60.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:22.847Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.