# Textron (TXT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TXT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:26.413Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $75.15 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $71.08 per share, central $79.85 per share, high $91.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value $79.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:26.413Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.5% at the stated quote. About 10.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.08×

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 18.2%

- FY2017: 11.0%

- FY2018: 17.2%

- FY2019: 15.2%

- FY2020: 17.1%

- FY2021: 11.2%

- FY2022: 11.5%

- FY2023: 13.2%

- FY2024: 10.1%

- FY2025: 10.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.10×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.2% vs 10.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.50 to 4.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Market cap gain: $2.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $238M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.8%

- Per-share value change: $2.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.50

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.56

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.45

- Average buyback yield: 6.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $539M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.53

- FY2017: $1.14

- FY2018: $4.83

- FY2019: $3.50

- FY2020: $1.35

- FY2021: $3.29

- FY2022: $4.01

- FY2023: $4.56

- FY2024: $4.33

- FY2025: $5.11

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -1.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.80×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.38×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.34×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.8%

- FY2017: -4.6%

- FY2018: 2.0%

- FY2019: -1.9%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -0.1%

- FY2022: -4.5%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -2.6%

- FY2025: -1.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 24% since Feb 2026 · "The increase in revenues reflected higher pricing, partially offset by lower volume and mix." (SEC filing, Feb 2026) · sales +8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.855Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-23: Textron shares fall as quarterly revenue misses estimates ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4507560-textron-shares-fall-as-quarterly-revenue-misses-estimates?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-04-13: Textron Extends T 6 Contract As Global Orders Shape Growth Story ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/textron-extends-t-6-contract-050439427.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: $14B 

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $14B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $12B 

- FY2022: $13B 

- FY2023: $14B 

- FY2024: $14B 

- FY2025: $15B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 17.8% 

- FY2017: 16.7% 

- FY2018: 17.0% 

- FY2019: 16.3% 

- FY2020: 13.4% 

- FY2021: 16.8% 

- FY2022: 20.7% 

- FY2023: 20.8% 

- FY2024: 18.3% 

- FY2025: 18.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are USD 14.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 14799000000; grossProfit 2695000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TXT.US: Textron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates in six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance. The Textron Aviation segment manufactures, sells, and services business jets, turboprop and piston engine aircraft, and military trainer and defense aircraft, as well as offers maintenance, inspection, and repair services; commercial parts; and advanced flight training devices. The Bell segment supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and related spare parts and services. The Textron Systems segment offers unmanned aircraft systems, electronic systems and solutions, advanced marine crafts, piston aircraft engines, live military air-to-air and air-to-ship training, weapons and related components, and armored and specialty vehicles. The Industrial segment offers blow-molded solutions, including conventional plastic fuel tanks and pressurized fuel tanks; plastic tanks for catalytic reduction systems and other fuel system components; lightweight and composite pentatonic battery systems for use in electric vehicles primarily to automobile original equipment manufacturers; and golf cars, off-road utility vehicles, powersports products, light transportation vehicles, aviation ground support equipment, professional turf-maintenance equipment, and turf-care vehicles to golf courses and resorts, government agencies and municipalities, consumers, outdoor enthusiasts, and commercial and industrial users. The Textron eAviation segment manufactures and sells light aircraft and gliders with electric and combustion engines; and provides other research and development initiatives related to sustainable aviation solutions. The Finance segment offers financing services to purchase new and pre-owned aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters. Textron Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.2% to 20.8% during 2023–25; it earns 12.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.18175896434340574],[2017,0.11021092217135382],[2018,0.172339695363141],[2019,0.15199499520187945],[2020,0.17121507472384664],[2021,0.11165971440449554],[2022,0.11516671004133708],[2023,0.13200724114103718],[2024,0.10062034771310972],[2025,0.10403241397722154]]; median 0.12358697559118713. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"The increase in revenues reflected higher pricing, partially offset by lower volume and mix." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-11); The increase in revenues reflected higher pricing, partially offset by lower volume and mix.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 420000000; owner earnings 991000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 446000000; owner earnings 308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 423000000; owner earnings 1236000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 369000000; owner earnings 862000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 339000000; owner earnings 361000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 317000000; owner earnings 819000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 375000000; cash acquisitions 202000000; owner earnings 883000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2287655719139298.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 7000000; upkeep 395000000; cash acquisitions 1000000; owner earnings 921000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.008686210640608035.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 4050479.8647143245; upkeep 397949520.1352857; cash acquisitions 13000000; owner earnings 808050479.8647144. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.021100760768768993.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 384000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 938000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,22000000],[2017,22000000],[2018,21000000],[2019,20000000],[2020,18000000],[2021,18000000],[2022,18000000],[2023,16000000],[2024,16000000],[2025,19000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/TXT.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 1077000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TXT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.732 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We have customer concentration with the U.S." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm (filed 2026-02-11); We have customer concentration with the U.S.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.011946557576248469. Price 75.15; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.615462441744072 → FY2025 5.203652542466909. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $40.08 per share

- 2016-11: $46.03 per share

- 2016-12: $48.56 per share

- 2017-01: $47.37 per share

- 2017-02: $47.30 per share

- 2017-03: $47.59 per share

- 2017-04: $46.66 per share

- 2017-05: $47.80 per share

- 2017-06: $47.10 per share

- 2017-07: $49.13 per share

- 2017-08: $49.09 per share

- 2017-09: $53.88 per share

- 2017-10: $52.74 per share

- 2017-11: $55.71 per share

- 2017-12: $56.59 per share

- 2018-01: $58.67 per share

- 2018-02: $59.85 per share

- 2018-03: $58.97 per share

- 2018-04: $62.14 per share

- 2018-05: $66.58 per share

- 2018-06: $65.91 per share

- 2018-07: $68.27 per share

- 2018-08: $69.03 per share

- 2018-09: $71.47 per share

- 2018-10: $53.63 per share

- 2018-11: $56.14 per share

- 2018-12: $45.99 per share

- 2019-01: $53.23 per share

- 2019-02: $54.30 per share

- 2019-03: $50.66 per share

- 2019-04: $53.00 per share

- 2019-05: $45.30 per share

- 2019-06: $53.04 per share

- 2019-07: $49.30 per share

- 2019-08: $45.00 per share

- 2019-09: $48.96 per share

- 2019-10: $46.09 per share

- 2019-11: $46.24 per share

- 2019-12: $44.60 per share

- 2020-01: $45.93 per share

- 2020-02: $40.60 per share

- 2020-03: $26.67 per share

- 2020-04: $26.36 per share

- 2020-05: $30.97 per share

- 2020-06: $32.91 per share

- 2020-07: $34.94 per share

- 2020-08: $39.43 per share

- 2020-09: $36.09 per share

- 2020-10: $35.80 per share

- 2020-11: $45.10 per share

- 2020-12: $48.33 per share

- 2021-01: $45.26 per share

- 2021-02: $50.34 per share

- 2021-03: $56.08 per share

- 2021-04: $64.24 per share

- 2021-05: $68.47 per share

- 2021-06: $68.77 per share

- 2021-07: $69.01 per share

- 2021-08: $72.67 per share

- 2021-09: $69.81 per share

- 2021-10: $73.85 per share

- 2021-11: $70.80 per share

- 2021-12: $77.20 per share

- 2022-01: $68.06 per share

- 2022-02: $73.13 per share

- 2022-03: $74.38 per share

- 2022-04: $69.25 per share

- 2022-05: $65.29 per share

- 2022-06: $61.07 per share

- 2022-07: $65.64 per share

- 2022-08: $62.38 per share

- 2022-09: $58.26 per share

- 2022-10: $68.44 per share

- 2022-11: $71.38 per share

- 2022-12: $70.80 per share

- 2023-01: $72.85 per share

- 2023-02: $72.53 per share

- 2023-03: $70.63 per share

- 2023-04: $66.94 per share

- 2023-05: $61.87 per share

- 2023-06: $67.63 per share

- 2023-07: $77.77 per share

- 2023-08: $77.71 per share

- 2023-09: $78.14 per share

- 2023-10: $76.00 per share

- 2023-11: $76.66 per share

- 2023-12: $80.42 per share

- 2024-01: $84.71 per share

- 2024-02: $89.07 per share

- 2024-03: $95.93 per share

- 2024-04: $84.59 per share

- 2024-05: $87.61 per share

- 2024-06: $85.86 per share

- 2024-07: $92.90 per share

- 2024-08: $91.20 per share

- 2024-09: $88.58 per share

- 2024-10: $80.42 per share

- 2024-11: $85.63 per share

- 2024-12: $76.49 per share

- 2025-01: $76.51 per share

- 2025-02: $74.73 per share

- 2025-03: $72.25 per share

- 2025-04: $70.37 per share

- 2025-05: $74.03 per share

- 2025-06: $80.29 per share

- 2025-07: $77.77 per share

- 2025-08: $80.16 per share

- 2025-09: $84.49 per share

- 2025-10: $80.81 per share

- 2025-11: $83.16 per share

- 2025-12: $87.17 per share

- 2026-01: $88.06 per share

- 2026-02: $98.65 per share

- 2026-03: $87.56 per share

- 2026-04: $95.96 per share

- 2026-05: $91.76 per share

- 2026-06: $91.73 per share

- 2026-07: $85.26 per share

- 2026-08: $80.56 per share

- 2026-09: $76.20 per share

- 2026-10: $75.15 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $30.30 per share, central $34.66 per share, high $39.78 per share

- FY2017: low $28.55 per share, central $32.08 per share, high $36.77 per share

- FY2018: low $36.02 per share, central $40.54 per share, high $46.55 per share

- FY2019: low $45.15 per share, central $50.73 per share, high $58.16 per share

- FY2020: low $44.00 per share, central $48.85 per share, high $55.30 per share

- FY2021: low $45.18 per share, central $50.39 per share, high $57.32 per share

- FY2022: low $51.21 per share, central $57.18 per share, high $65.12 per share

- FY2023: low $62.77 per share, central $75.72 per share, high $86.78 per share

- FY2024: low $58.19 per share, central $65.36 per share, high $74.92 per share

- FY2025: low $68.95 per share, central $77.13 per share, high $88.03 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000021734626000006/txt-20260103.htm); period 2026-01-03, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.