# United Airlines Holdings (UAL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UAL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:38.602Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $101.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $132.20 per share, central $143.90 per share, high $159.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $143.90 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:38.602Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.8% at the stated quote. About 15.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 7.68×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: -0.41×

- FY2021: -0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -35.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 64.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.3%

- FY2018: 12.1%

- FY2019: 14.7%

- FY2020: -22.3%

- FY2021: -3.8%

- FY2022: 7.8%

- FY2023: 12.0%

- FY2024: 14.1%

- FY2025: 12.4%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 13.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -8.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.81×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.71×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.3% vs 12.4%

- Per-share earnings: 7.06 to 9.45 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.3%

- Market cap gain: $13B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $6.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.7%

- Per-share value change: $2.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.06

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.45

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.39

- Average buyback yield: 5.5%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $10B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.85

- FY2017: $7.06

- FY2018: $7.67

- FY2019: $11.58

- FY2020: -$25.30

- FY2021: -$6.10

- FY2022: $2.23

- FY2023: $7.89

- FY2024: $9.45

- FY2025: $10.21

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.51×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.47×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.2%

- FY2017: -3.1%

- FY2018: -8.2%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -5.9%

- FY2022: -7.9%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -6.6%

## Holders

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 26% since Jun 2026 · "United Airlines cuts 2026 earnings outlook as fuel costs rise" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +6.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:44.845Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-26: UAL Seals Pivotal Deal With Flight Attendants, Uplifts Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ual-seals-pivotal-deal-flight-150700787.html))

- 2025-07-16: United Airlines Reports Second-Quarter Profit, Sees Third-Quarter Positive Inflection in Both Supply and Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-airlines-reports-second-quarter-200000928.html))

- 2025-08-13: United Airlines (UAL) Takes Off by 10% as Gas Cheaper, Airfare Jumps ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-airlines-ual-takes-off-165431028.html))

- 2026-03-20: United Airlines to cut 5% of scheduled flights as fuel prices soar ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-airlines-cut-5-scheduled-233346719.html))

- 2026-05-21: United Airlines Stock Soars on Upbeat Summer Travel Forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/united-airlines-stock-soars-upbeat-154312422.html))

- 2026-06-17: United (UAL) Faces A Cheaper Fuel Outlook After Strait Of Hormuz Reopens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/united-ual-faces-cheaper-fuel-043519258.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $38B 

- FY2018: $41B 

- FY2019: $43B 

- FY2020: $15B 

- FY2021: $25B 

- FY2022: $45B 

- FY2023: $54B 

- FY2024: $57B 

- FY2025: $59B 

- FY2026: $63B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 65.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 28.5% 

- FY2018: 26.8% 

- FY2019: 28.8% 

- FY2021: 2.9% 

- FY2022: 23.7% 

- FY2023: 28.3% 

- FY2024: 34.0% 

- FY2025: 64.1% 

- FY2026: 65.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in airlines; annual sales are USD 59.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 59070000000; grossProfit 37878000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UAL.US: United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. The company also offers ground handling, flight academy, frequent flyer award non-travel redemptions, and maintenance services for third parties. In addition, it provides freight and mail transportation services to commercial businesses, freight forwarders, logistics firms, and national postal services, as well as loyalty programs. The company distributes its products through direct channels, such as the Company's website and the Company's mobile app; and traditional travel agencies, online travel agencies, and other intermediaries. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.3% to 64.1% during 2023–25; it earns 12.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 64.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17260882797803154],[2018,0.12116453826344252],[2019,0.14686494507999087],[2020,-0.22326163281631928],[2021,-0.03761904761904762],[2022,0.07770978500387113],[2023,0.11989521380011953],[2024,0.1409990815683433],[2025,0.12418947347012148],[2026,0.13036744276419587]]; median 0.122677005866782. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 82.3% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 3 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3223000000; owner earnings 1017000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 705686360.3036017; upkeep 3164313639.6963983; owner earnings 1127686360.3036017. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6257824738729775.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 1905000000; upkeep 2165000000; owner earnings 2122000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8977379830348727.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 1369048879.6185193; upkeep 3158951120.3814807; owner earnings 2138048879.6185193. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6403262772284193.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 2363000000; upkeep 2456000000; owner earnings 737000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.2062415196743554.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 4500000000; upkeep 2671000000; owner earnings 2618000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7188693659281895.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 2687000000; upkeep 2928000000; owner earnings 3149000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8532867577008574.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 1947444146.6542835; upkeep 3926555853.3457165; owner earnings 2365444146.6542835. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8232890002534091.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,1844000000],[2018,1235000000],[2019,0],[2020,16044000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 637000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UAL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.586 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We may not be successful in executing elements of our strategic operating plan" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); We may not be successful in executing elements of our strategic operating plan

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 8.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.10303872100691697. Price 101.31; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 17.01247015123375 → FY2025 7.200743216603603. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $56.23 per share

- 2016-11: $68.95 per share

- 2016-12: $72.88 per share

- 2017-01: $70.47 per share

- 2017-02: $74.09 per share

- 2017-03: $70.64 per share

- 2017-04: $70.21 per share

- 2017-05: $79.67 per share

- 2017-06: $75.25 per share

- 2017-07: $67.68 per share

- 2017-08: $61.96 per share

- 2017-09: $60.88 per share

- 2017-10: $58.48 per share

- 2017-11: $63.32 per share

- 2017-12: $67.40 per share

- 2018-01: $67.82 per share

- 2018-02: $67.79 per share

- 2018-03: $69.47 per share

- 2018-04: $67.54 per share

- 2018-05: $69.59 per share

- 2018-06: $69.73 per share

- 2018-07: $80.40 per share

- 2018-08: $87.42 per share

- 2018-09: $89.06 per share

- 2018-10: $85.51 per share

- 2018-11: $96.70 per share

- 2018-12: $83.73 per share

- 2019-01: $87.27 per share

- 2019-02: $87.81 per share

- 2019-03: $79.78 per share

- 2019-04: $88.86 per share

- 2019-05: $77.65 per share

- 2019-06: $87.55 per share

- 2019-07: $91.91 per share

- 2019-08: $84.31 per share

- 2019-09: $88.41 per share

- 2019-10: $90.84 per share

- 2019-11: $92.80 per share

- 2019-12: $88.09 per share

- 2020-01: $74.80 per share

- 2020-02: $61.59 per share

- 2020-03: $31.55 per share

- 2020-04: $29.58 per share

- 2020-05: $28.04 per share

- 2020-06: $34.61 per share

- 2020-07: $31.38 per share

- 2020-08: $36.00 per share

- 2020-09: $34.75 per share

- 2020-10: $33.86 per share

- 2020-11: $45.05 per share

- 2020-12: $43.25 per share

- 2021-01: $39.99 per share

- 2021-02: $52.68 per share

- 2021-03: $57.54 per share

- 2021-04: $54.40 per share

- 2021-05: $58.35 per share

- 2021-06: $52.29 per share

- 2021-07: $46.72 per share

- 2021-08: $46.51 per share

- 2021-09: $47.57 per share

- 2021-10: $46.14 per share

- 2021-11: $42.26 per share

- 2021-12: $43.78 per share

- 2022-01: $42.88 per share

- 2022-02: $44.40 per share

- 2022-03: $46.36 per share

- 2022-04: $50.50 per share

- 2022-05: $47.63 per share

- 2022-06: $35.42 per share

- 2022-07: $36.75 per share

- 2022-08: $35.01 per share

- 2022-09: $32.53 per share

- 2022-10: $43.08 per share

- 2022-11: $44.17 per share

- 2022-12: $37.70 per share

- 2023-01: $48.96 per share

- 2023-02: $51.96 per share

- 2023-03: $44.25 per share

- 2023-04: $43.80 per share

- 2023-05: $47.47 per share

- 2023-06: $54.87 per share

- 2023-07: $54.31 per share

- 2023-08: $49.81 per share

- 2023-09: $42.30 per share

- 2023-10: $35.01 per share

- 2023-11: $39.40 per share

- 2023-12: $41.26 per share

- 2024-01: $41.38 per share

- 2024-02: $45.49 per share

- 2024-03: $47.88 per share

- 2024-04: $51.46 per share

- 2024-05: $52.99 per share

- 2024-06: $48.66 per share

- 2024-07: $45.42 per share

- 2024-08: $44.04 per share

- 2024-09: $57.06 per share

- 2024-10: $78.26 per share

- 2024-11: $96.83 per share

- 2024-12: $97.10 per share

- 2025-01: $105.84 per share

- 2025-02: $93.81 per share

- 2025-03: $69.05 per share

- 2025-04: $68.82 per share

- 2025-05: $79.44 per share

- 2025-06: $79.63 per share

- 2025-07: $88.31 per share

- 2025-08: $105.00 per share

- 2025-09: $96.50 per share

- 2025-10: $94.04 per share

- 2025-11: $101.96 per share

- 2025-12: $111.82 per share

- 2026-01: $102.32 per share

- 2026-02: $106.30 per share

- 2026-03: $92.07 per share

- 2026-04: $90.00 per share

- 2026-05: $114.80 per share

- 2026-06: $135.99 per share

- 2026-07: $121.33 per share

- 2026-08: $107.99 per share

- 2026-09: $110.95 per share

- 2026-10: $103.23 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $44.85 per share, central $49.49 per share, high $55.66 per share

- FY2017: low $49.56 per share, central $55.01 per share, high $62.26 per share

- FY2018: low $60.70 per share, central $68.39 per share, high $77.66 per share

- FY2019: low $114.86 per share, central $140.77 per share, high $161.74 per share

- FY2020: low $58.64 per share, central $61.12 per share, high $64.41 per share

- FY2021: low $80.61 per share, central $84.06 per share, high $88.64 per share

- FY2022: low $72.74 per share, central $77.98 per share, high $83.09 per share

- FY2023: low $73.50 per share, central $84.14 per share, high $91.63 per share

- FY2024: low $75.72 per share, central $87.62 per share, high $95.76 per share

- FY2025: low $112.37 per share, central $123.22 per share, high $137.67 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:23.962Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000023/ual-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.