# The Swatch Group AG (UHR.SW)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UHR.SW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: CHF. Reporting currency: CHF.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CHF 183.90 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CHF 129.54 per share, central CHF 144.13 per share, high CHF 163.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value CHF 144.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CH 10-year bond 0.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.70×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.00×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 80.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 82.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.3%

- FY2017: 7.8%

- FY2018: 8.7%

- FY2019: 7.6%

- FY2020: 0.4%

- FY2021: 8.7%

- FY2022: 9.2%

- FY2023: 1.4%

- FY2024: 0.0%

- FY2025: 0.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CHF 2.4B

- Net income, five-year total: CHF 2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -92.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 22.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 112.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.14×

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 0.73×

- FY2024: 0.30×

- FY2025: 5.67×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.8% vs 0.8%

- Per-share earnings: 14.18 to 3.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: CHF -10B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CHF 1.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -15.4%

- Per-share value change: CHF -10.46

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CHF 14.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CHF 3.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.36

- Average buyback yield: 0.9%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CHF 64M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CHF 5.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CHF 9.49

- FY2017: CHF 14.18

- FY2018: CHF 16.35

- FY2019: CHF 14.14

- FY2020: CHF -0.99

- FY2021: CHF 14.77

- FY2022: CHF 15.57

- FY2023: CHF 14.61

- FY2024: CHF 3.72

- FY2025: CHF 0.06

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.92×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 169.00×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.3%

- FY2017: -3.9%

- FY2018: -0.7%

- FY2019: -3.6%

- FY2020: -6.7%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: 0.6%

- FY2023: 1.8%

- FY2024: -1.0%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Jan 2023 · "Swatch profits plunge on weak China sales" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales -6.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:05.771Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-17: Swatch profits plunge on weak China sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swatch-profits-plunge-weak-china-092541894.html))

- 2026-01-30: Swatch Shares Jump After Return to Sales Growth, Upbeat Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/88a5c1af-cfa6-36d6-b000-fd4f0d1ff3f3/swatch-shares-jump-after.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -6.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CHF 7.6B 

- FY2017: CHF 8.0B 

- FY2018: CHF 8.5B 

- FY2019: CHF 8.2B 

- FY2020: CHF 5.6B 

- FY2021: CHF 7.3B 

- FY2022: CHF 7.5B 

- FY2023: CHF 7.9B 

- FY2024: CHF 6.7B 

- FY2025: CHF 6.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 82.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 79.3% 

- FY2017: 79.3% 

- FY2018: 81.2% 

- FY2019: 80.4% 

- FY2020: 75.9% 

- FY2021: 79.4% 

- FY2022: 82.5% 

- FY2023: 85.1% 

- FY2024: 83.2% 

- FY2025: 82.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in luxury goods; annual sales are CHF 6.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2025: revenue 6280000000; grossProfit 5162000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UHR.SW: The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments. The Watches & Jewelry segment designs, produces, and commercializes watches and jewelry. The Electronic Systems segment engages in the design, production, and commercialization of electronic components, as well as sports timing activities. The company is also involved in the provision of assembly, research and development, administration, logistics and distribution, and customer services; and hard material components, microelectronics, watch cases and crowns, miniature low-frequency quartz crystals, thin wires, miniature batteries, watch dials and hands, bracelets, sports timing technology and equipment, precision parts, electronic components assembly, and surface treatment products. In addition, it engages in the patent, retail, communication, real estate, real estate management, finance, reinsurance, and art center businesses. The company offers its watch and jewelry products under the Breguet, Harry Winston, Blancpain, Glashütte Original, Jaquet Droz, Omega, Longines, Rado, Union Glashütte, Tissot, Balmain, Certina, Mido, Hamilton, Swatch, and Flik Flak brands. The Swatch Group AG was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 82.2% to 85.1% during 2023–25; it earns 7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 85.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 83.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 82.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06344824634610859],[2017,0.07813325442650279],[2018,0.08679670988697806],[2019,0.07578357149110626],[2020,0.0036755110917790343],[2021,0.08701500460315577],[2022,0.09203604671285624],[2023,0.014431370551480577],[2024,0.0002726255941839873],[2025,0.008463541666666666]]; median 0.06961590891860742. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 504000000; owner earnings 468000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 396000000; owner earnings 774000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 437000000; owner earnings 850000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 446000000; owner earnings 725000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 249000000; owner earnings 124000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 295000000; owner earnings 870000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 387000000; owner earnings 826000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2023: growth capex 158256109.7674508; upkeep 626743890.2325492; owner earnings 632256109.7674508. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2503038046174971.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 549000000; owner earnings 58000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 409000000; owner earnings 17000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,403000000],[2017,357000000],[2018,394000000],[2019,413000000],[2020,284000000],[2021,181000000],[2022,285000000],[2023,311000000],[2024,335000000],[2025,234000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UHR.SW SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.563 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 32.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:40.140Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0510548367778797. Price 183.9; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 15.921138286989677 → FY2025 0.3273454784924393. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CHF per share)

- 2016-10: CHF 297.70 per share

- 2016-11: CHF 298.90 per share

- 2016-12: CHF 316.70 per share

- 2017-01: CHF 349.50 per share

- 2017-02: CHF 333.90 per share

- 2017-03: CHF 358.70 per share

- 2017-04: CHF 398.30 per share

- 2017-05: CHF 375.20 per share

- 2017-06: CHF 354.10 per share

- 2017-07: CHF 383.90 per share

- 2017-08: CHF 382.80 per share

- 2017-09: CHF 402.80 per share

- 2017-10: CHF 391.00 per share

- 2017-11: CHF 358.70 per share

- 2017-12: CHF 397.40 per share

- 2018-01: CHF 426.50 per share

- 2018-02: CHF 399.80 per share

- 2018-03: CHF 421.40 per share

- 2018-04: CHF 478.50 per share

- 2018-05: CHF 478.20 per share

- 2018-06: CHF 471.10 per share

- 2018-07: CHF 444.90 per share

- 2018-08: CHF 413.60 per share

- 2018-09: CHF 390.30 per share

- 2018-10: CHF 340.80 per share

- 2018-11: CHF 297.30 per share

- 2018-12: CHF 286.70 per share

- 2019-01: CHF 285.20 per share

- 2019-02: CHF 295.50 per share

- 2019-03: CHF 285.00 per share

- 2019-04: CHF 311.20 per share

- 2019-05: CHF 251.70 per share

- 2019-06: CHF 279.50 per share

- 2019-07: CHF 289.80 per share

- 2019-08: CHF 268.10 per share

- 2019-09: CHF 264.90 per share

- 2019-10: CHF 273.00 per share

- 2019-11: CHF 280.00 per share

- 2019-12: CHF 270.00 per share

- 2020-01: CHF 242.70 per share

- 2020-02: CHF 221.90 per share

- 2020-03: CHF 193.45 per share

- 2020-04: CHF 193.15 per share

- 2020-05: CHF 191.90 per share

- 2020-06: CHF 189.10 per share

- 2020-07: CHF 191.00 per share

- 2020-08: CHF 191.00 per share

- 2020-09: CHF 214.90 per share

- 2020-10: CHF 193.95 per share

- 2020-11: CHF 224.20 per share

- 2020-12: CHF 241.50 per share

- 2021-01: CHF 257.00 per share

- 2021-02: CHF 271.20 per share

- 2021-03: CHF 271.90 per share

- 2021-04: CHF 279.60 per share

- 2021-05: CHF 325.80 per share

- 2021-06: CHF 317.40 per share

- 2021-07: CHF 302.70 per share

- 2021-08: CHF 258.20 per share

- 2021-09: CHF 245.50 per share

- 2021-10: CHF 251.20 per share

- 2021-11: CHF 271.40 per share

- 2021-12: CHF 279.00 per share

- 2022-01: CHF 268.30 per share

- 2022-02: CHF 285.10 per share

- 2022-03: CHF 263.70 per share

- 2022-04: CHF 254.50 per share

- 2022-05: CHF 246.40 per share

- 2022-06: CHF 226.50 per share

- 2022-07: CHF 252.60 per share

- 2022-08: CHF 238.30 per share

- 2022-09: CHF 224.50 per share

- 2022-10: CHF 225.40 per share

- 2022-11: CHF 249.80 per share

- 2022-12: CHF 263.00 per share

- 2023-01: CHF 329.80 per share

- 2023-02: CHF 327.20 per share

- 2023-03: CHF 313.40 per share

- 2023-04: CHF 304.60 per share

- 2023-05: CHF 270.60 per share

- 2023-06: CHF 261.10 per share

- 2023-07: CHF 278.40 per share

- 2023-08: CHF 248.70 per share

- 2023-09: CHF 235.40 per share

- 2023-10: CHF 232.20 per share

- 2023-11: CHF 229.50 per share

- 2023-12: CHF 228.60 per share

- 2024-01: CHF 203.70 per share

- 2024-02: CHF 208.60 per share

- 2024-03: CHF 209.40 per share

- 2024-04: CHF 193.65 per share

- 2024-05: CHF 193.15 per share

- 2024-06: CHF 184.05 per share

- 2024-07: CHF 180.85 per share

- 2024-08: CHF 177.80 per share

- 2024-09: CHF 181.25 per share

- 2024-10: CHF 176.55 per share

- 2024-11: CHF 159.95 per share

- 2024-12: CHF 165.00 per share

- 2025-01: CHF 169.50 per share

- 2025-02: CHF 175.00 per share

- 2025-03: CHF 151.70 per share

- 2025-04: CHF 142.15 per share

- 2025-05: CHF 138.55 per share

- 2025-06: CHF 129.10 per share

- 2025-07: CHF 144.90 per share

- 2025-08: CHF 144.55 per share

- 2025-09: CHF 149.45 per share

- 2025-10: CHF 167.80 per share

- 2025-11: CHF 162.15 per share

- 2025-12: CHF 168.25 per share

- 2026-01: CHF 183.00 per share

- 2026-02: CHF 196.80 per share

- 2026-03: CHF 173.50 per share

- 2026-04: CHF 180.75 per share

- 2026-05: CHF 216.20 per share

- 2026-06: CHF 197.60 per share

- 2026-07: CHF 180.30 per share

- 2026-08: CHF 187.40 per share

- 2026-09: CHF 187.95 per share

- 2026-10: CHF 177.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (CHF per share)

- FY2016: low CHF 159.89 per share, central CHF 178.96 per share, high CHF 204.33 per share

- FY2017: low CHF 191.95 per share, central CHF 214.52 per share, high CHF 244.55 per share

- FY2018: low CHF 194.22 per share, central CHF 218.15 per share, high CHF 250.02 per share

- FY2019: low CHF 196.43 per share, central CHF 222.53 per share, high CHF 254.51 per share

- FY2020: low CHF 136.35 per share, central CHF 150.67 per share, high CHF 169.74 per share

- FY2021: low CHF 197.97 per share, central CHF 218.59 per share, high CHF 246.03 per share

- FY2022: low CHF 204.79 per share, central CHF 226.66 per share, high CHF 255.77 per share

- FY2023: low CHF 159.25 per share, central CHF 176.83 per share, high CHF 200.23 per share

- FY2024: low CHF 137.97 per share, central CHF 153.64 per share, high CHF 174.51 per share

- FY2025: low CHF 127.23 per share, central CHF 141.84 per share, high CHF 161.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:25.738Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.