# Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ULTA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:42.106Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $609.24 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $498.02 per share, central $726.50 per share, high $853.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value $726.50 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:42.106Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.3% at the stated quote. About 11.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- FY2026: 0.12×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.13×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 32.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 21.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 33.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 41.5%

- FY2019: 47.8%

- FY2020: 21.5%

- FY2021: 8.4%

- FY2022: 32.4%

- FY2023: 40.0%

- FY2024: 37.6%

- FY2025: 32.5%

- FY2026: 27.4%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 26.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 45.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.93×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 41.5% vs 32.5%

- Per-share earnings: 6.52 to 25.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.5%

- Market cap gain: $12B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $831M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 18.7%

- Per-share value change: $19.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $25.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.82

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $402M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 41.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 32.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $6.52

- FY2018: $8.96

- FY2019: $10.94

- FY2020: $12.15

- FY2021: $3.11

- FY2022: $17.98

- FY2023: $24.01

- FY2024: $26.03

- FY2025: $25.34

- FY2026: $25.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.21×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.15×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.8%

- FY2018: -7.7%

- FY2019: -9.3%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -12.5%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: -4.5%

- FY2024: -3.2%

- FY2025: -2.3%

- FY2026: -5.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years · sales +4.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:45.545Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-30: Ulta Beauty Soars 11.2% on Earnings Beat and Upgraded Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulta-beauty-soars-11-2-185206123.html))

- 2025-09-04: Ulta Beauty shares fall as Gap, Old Navy look to expand into cosmetics ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulta-beauty-shares-fall-gap-153633715.html))

- 2025-12-04: Ulta jumps after beat and raise on makeup and skincare demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulta-jumps-beat-raise-makeup-215205047.html))

- 2026-03-13: Ulta Beauty Stock Tanks After Q4 Profit Miss and Weak Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulta-beauty-slides-8-q4-123825376.html))

- 2026-06-03: Ulta Beauty beats Q1 estimates, shares fall on muted full-year outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ulta-beauty-beats-q1-estimates-144400224.html))

- 2026-08-27: Ulta Beauty Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results and Raises Fiscal 2026 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ulta-beauty-announces-second-quarter-200500076.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +4.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2018: $5.9B 

- FY2019: $6.7B 

- FY2020: $7.4B 

- FY2021: $6.2B 

- FY2022: $8.6B 

- FY2023: $10B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $12B 

- FY2027: $13B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 39.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2018: 35.6% 

- FY2019: 35.9% 

- FY2020: 36.2% 

- FY2021: 31.7% 

- FY2022: 39.0% 

- FY2023: 39.6% 

- FY2024: 39.1% 

- FY2025: 38.8% 

- FY2026: 39.1% 

- FY2027: 39.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty retail; annual sales are USD 12.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: revenue 12392820000; grossProfit 4845224000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ULTA.US: Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. It also provides wellness products. The company was formerly known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.8% to 39.1% during 2024–26; it earns 32.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.4149304168205638],[2019,0.4784180084742092],[2020,0.21549536476972284],[2021,0.08407527485682569],[2022,0.32364363845960514],[2023,0.4003197789372838],[2024,0.3762332316484638],[2025,0.3245557184433472],[2026,0.2744868553047595],[2027,0.260641601137173]]; median 0.32409967845147614. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 45.2% of cash earnings; earns 45.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2017: growth capex 163152000; upkeep 210295000; owner earnings 409760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3981647793830535.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2018: growth capex 188001000; upkeep 252713000; owner earnings 555234000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3385977803952928.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 39928000; upkeep 279472000; cash acquisitions 13606000; owner earnings 658559000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08128960351312486.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2020: growth capex 2935000; upkeep 295599000; owner earnings 705945000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.004157547684309685.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 151866000; cash acquisitions 1220000; owner earnings 321741000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0037918698580535273.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 172187000; owner earnings 1082110000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 70754000; upkeep 241372000; owner earnings 1242408000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05694908596853852.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 191427000; upkeep 243840000; owner earnings 1291005000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14827750473468346.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 25341879.179212034; upkeep 349116120.82078797; owner earnings 1119043878.179212. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022646010289110036.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: growth capex 134057000; upkeep 300772000; cash acquisitions 386813000; owner earnings 1153479000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4515643544442508.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Incremental return on capital 0.45806938107560635, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,12229000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,10386000],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-26); FY2026: cash repurchases 901388000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ULTA.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.25 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our secured revolving credit facility contains certain restrictive covenants" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-26); Our secured revolving credit facility contains certain restrictive covenants

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 17.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07614297239154022. Price 609.24; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 4.978732010890704 → FY2026 25.637994265519772. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $243.34 per share

- 2016-11: $259.50 per share

- 2016-12: $254.94 per share

- 2017-01: $272.28 per share

- 2017-02: $273.43 per share

- 2017-03: $285.23 per share

- 2017-04: $281.44 per share

- 2017-05: $304.84 per share

- 2017-06: $287.34 per share

- 2017-07: $251.21 per share

- 2017-08: $221.01 per share

- 2017-09: $226.06 per share

- 2017-10: $201.79 per share

- 2017-11: $221.71 per share

- 2017-12: $223.66 per share

- 2018-01: $222.10 per share

- 2018-02: $203.35 per share

- 2018-03: $204.27 per share

- 2018-04: $250.91 per share

- 2018-05: $246.91 per share

- 2018-06: $233.46 per share

- 2018-07: $244.39 per share

- 2018-08: $260.00 per share

- 2018-09: $282.12 per share

- 2018-10: $274.52 per share

- 2018-11: $297.79 per share

- 2018-12: $244.84 per share

- 2019-01: $291.92 per share

- 2019-02: $312.49 per share

- 2019-03: $348.73 per share

- 2019-04: $348.98 per share

- 2019-05: $333.38 per share

- 2019-06: $346.89 per share

- 2019-07: $349.25 per share

- 2019-08: $237.73 per share

- 2019-09: $250.65 per share

- 2019-10: $233.15 per share

- 2019-11: $233.86 per share

- 2019-12: $253.14 per share

- 2020-01: $267.91 per share

- 2020-02: $257.09 per share

- 2020-03: $175.70 per share

- 2020-04: $217.92 per share

- 2020-05: $244.01 per share

- 2020-06: $203.42 per share

- 2020-07: $192.99 per share

- 2020-08: $232.18 per share

- 2020-09: $223.98 per share

- 2020-10: $206.77 per share

- 2020-11: $275.40 per share

- 2020-12: $287.16 per share

- 2021-01: $279.76 per share

- 2021-02: $322.33 per share

- 2021-03: $309.17 per share

- 2021-04: $329.35 per share

- 2021-05: $345.36 per share

- 2021-06: $345.77 per share

- 2021-07: $335.80 per share

- 2021-08: $387.31 per share

- 2021-09: $360.92 per share

- 2021-10: $367.36 per share

- 2021-11: $383.95 per share

- 2021-12: $412.34 per share

- 2022-01: $363.74 per share

- 2022-02: $374.50 per share

- 2022-03: $398.22 per share

- 2022-04: $396.80 per share

- 2022-05: $423.10 per share

- 2022-06: $385.48 per share

- 2022-07: $388.91 per share

- 2022-08: $419.87 per share

- 2022-09: $401.19 per share

- 2022-10: $419.37 per share

- 2022-11: $464.84 per share

- 2022-12: $469.07 per share

- 2023-01: $513.96 per share

- 2023-02: $518.80 per share

- 2023-03: $545.67 per share

- 2023-04: $551.43 per share

- 2023-05: $409.83 per share

- 2023-06: $470.60 per share

- 2023-07: $444.80 per share

- 2023-08: $415.03 per share

- 2023-09: $399.45 per share

- 2023-10: $381.31 per share

- 2023-11: $425.99 per share

- 2023-12: $489.99 per share

- 2024-01: $502.05 per share

- 2024-02: $548.56 per share

- 2024-03: $522.88 per share

- 2024-04: $404.84 per share

- 2024-05: $395.09 per share

- 2024-06: $385.87 per share

- 2024-07: $364.89 per share

- 2024-08: $352.84 per share

- 2024-09: $389.12 per share

- 2024-10: $368.98 per share

- 2024-11: $386.64 per share

- 2024-12: $434.93 per share

- 2025-01: $412.15 per share

- 2025-02: $366.36 per share

- 2025-03: $366.54 per share

- 2025-04: $395.64 per share

- 2025-05: $471.46 per share

- 2025-06: $467.82 per share

- 2025-07: $515.01 per share

- 2025-08: $492.73 per share

- 2025-09: $546.75 per share

- 2025-10: $519.88 per share

- 2025-11: $538.83 per share

- 2025-12: $605.01 per share

- 2026-01: $647.36 per share

- 2026-02: $684.79 per share

- 2026-03: $522.71 per share

- 2026-04: $537.48 per share

- 2026-05: $508.85 per share

- 2026-06: $450.98 per share

- 2026-07: $512.83 per share

- 2026-08: $537.10 per share

- 2026-09: $546.17 per share

- 2026-10: $609.24 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $88.36 per share, central $124.06 per share, high $144.85 per share

- FY2018: low $109.78 per share, central $154.89 per share, high $181.16 per share

- FY2019: low $141.35 per share, central $204.11 per share, high $239.11 per share

- FY2020: low $180.54 per share, central $260.57 per share, high $305.21 per share

- FY2021: low $142.33 per share, central $178.30 per share, high $205.65 per share

- FY2022: low $222.79 per share, central $322.83 per share, high $378.63 per share

- FY2023: low $291.24 per share, central $420.12 per share, high $492.00 per share

- FY2024: low $388.92 per share, central $562.32 per share, high $659.04 per share

- FY2025: low $408.64 per share, central $591.50 per share, high $693.48 per share

- FY2026: low $466.22 per share, central $677.59 per share, high $795.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:27.475Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403568/000110465926035243/ulta-20260131x10k.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.