# UnitedHealth Group (UNH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UNH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:43.719Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $406.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $338.12 per share, central $384.74 per share, high $446.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value $384.74 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:43.719Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.6% at the stated quote. About 9.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 5.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 92.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 48.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 89.7%

- FY2019: 84.8%

- FY2020: 95.5%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 72.7%

- FY2025: 48.8%

- LTM to Mar 2026: 48.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $89B

- Net income, five-year total: $86B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -9.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 89.7% vs 72.7%

- Per-share earnings: 7.25 to 15.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: $147B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $55B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.0%

- Per-share value change: $8.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $7.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $15.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.02

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $78B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $145B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 89.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 72.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $7.25

- FY2017: $10.72

- FY2018: $12.19

- FY2019: $14.33

- FY2020: $16.03

- FY2021: $18.08

- FY2022: $21.18

- FY2023: $23.86

- FY2024: $15.51

- FY2025: $13.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.63×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.39×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.3%

- FY2017: -2.2%

- FY2018: -2.4%

- FY2019: -2.7%

- FY2020: -3.4%

- FY2021: -2.4%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: -2.4%

- FY2024: -3.3%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Duan Yongping](https://gigainvestors.com/HH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Samantha McLemore](https://gigainvestors.com/PTNT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [C.T. Fitzpatrick](https://gigainvestors.com/VVP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Donald Yacktman](https://gigainvestors.com/YAM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Nov 2024 · "UNH Exits Select Medicare Advantage Plans for 2027 Amid Cost Pressure" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +0.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:45.852Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-17: UnitedHealth cuts 2025 forecast after dealing with first-quarter care use spike ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-cuts-2025-forecast-dealing-111425467.html))

- 2025-05-13: UnitedHealth Group CEO steps down; suspends 2025 outlook on higher-than-expected medical costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-group-ceo-steps-down-105153864.html))

- 2025-07-29: UnitedHealth Group lowers 2025 earnings outlook on higher medical costs ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/unitedhealth-group-lowers-2025-earnings-outlook-on-higher-medical-costs-93CH-4156747))

- 2025-09-09: UnitedHealth rises after Medicare Star Ratings update ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4493298-unitedhealth-rises-medicare-star-ratings-update?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-01-29: UnitedHealth Confronts Flat Medicare Rates And First Revenue Decline Since 1989 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-confronts-flat-medicare-rates-171355874.html))

- 2026-04-21: UnitedHealth shares pop on quarterly earnings beat, raised full-year outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/unitedhealth-group-shares-pop-quarterly-143500151.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: $201B 

- FY2018: $226B 

- FY2019: $242B 

- FY2020: $257B 

- FY2021: $288B 

- FY2022: $324B 

- FY2023: $372B 

- FY2024: $400B 

- FY2025: $448B 

- FY2026: $450B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 18.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: 23.4% 

- FY2018: 23.8% 

- FY2019: 23.8% 

- FY2020: 26.1% 

- FY2021: 24.2% 

- FY2022: 24.6% 

- FY2023: 24.5% 

- FY2024: 22.3% 

- FY2025: 18.5% 

- FY2026: 18.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in healthcare plans; annual sales are USD 447.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 447567000000; grossProfit 82917000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UNH.US: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.5% to 24.5% during 2023–25; it earns 92.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 24.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,1.0225942077150927],[2018,0.8969918957159863],[2019,0.8476554113869033],[2020,0.9547806777738719],[2021,1.054834665460005],[2022,1.5764239452319124],[2023,1.1267384494758668],[2024,0.7272395276170455],[2025,0.4877733619449369],[2026,0.4869244521151719]]; median 0.9258862867449291. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 25% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.2421861145978574],[2022,0.24560867714291001],[2023,0.2447594598812772]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1705000000; owner earnings 7367000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2023000000; owner earnings 10780000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2063000000; owner earnings 12351000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2071000000; owner earnings 14488000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2051000000; owner earnings 16243000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2454000000; owner earnings 17934000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2802000000; owner earnings 20718000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3386000000; owner earnings 22947681040.442448. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3499000000; owner earnings 15005000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3622000000; owner earnings 12795000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,2261000000],[2017,2773000000],[2018,3320000000],[2019,3932000000],[2020,4584000000],[2021,5280000000],[2022,5991000000],[2023,6761000000],[2024,7533000000],[2025,7916000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 5545000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UNH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.248 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are routinely subject to private party and governmental legal actions and investigations" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); We are routinely subject to private party and governmental legal actions and investigations

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.00987137972237273. Price 406.67; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.153050672182006 → FY2025 14.045005488474205. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $141.33 per share

- 2016-11: $158.32 per share

- 2016-12: $160.04 per share

- 2017-01: $162.10 per share

- 2017-02: $165.38 per share

- 2017-03: $164.01 per share

- 2017-04: $174.88 per share

- 2017-05: $175.18 per share

- 2017-06: $185.42 per share

- 2017-07: $191.81 per share

- 2017-08: $198.90 per share

- 2017-09: $195.85 per share

- 2017-10: $210.22 per share

- 2017-11: $228.17 per share

- 2017-12: $220.46 per share

- 2018-01: $236.78 per share

- 2018-02: $226.16 per share

- 2018-03: $214.00 per share

- 2018-04: $236.40 per share

- 2018-05: $241.51 per share

- 2018-06: $245.34 per share

- 2018-07: $253.22 per share

- 2018-08: $268.46 per share

- 2018-09: $266.04 per share

- 2018-10: $261.35 per share

- 2018-11: $281.36 per share

- 2018-12: $249.12 per share

- 2019-01: $270.20 per share

- 2019-02: $242.22 per share

- 2019-03: $247.26 per share

- 2019-04: $233.07 per share

- 2019-05: $241.80 per share

- 2019-06: $244.01 per share

- 2019-07: $249.01 per share

- 2019-08: $234.00 per share

- 2019-09: $217.32 per share

- 2019-10: $252.70 per share

- 2019-11: $279.87 per share

- 2019-12: $293.98 per share

- 2020-01: $272.45 per share

- 2020-02: $254.96 per share

- 2020-03: $249.38 per share

- 2020-04: $292.47 per share

- 2020-05: $304.85 per share

- 2020-06: $294.95 per share

- 2020-07: $302.78 per share

- 2020-08: $312.55 per share

- 2020-09: $311.77 per share

- 2020-10: $305.14 per share

- 2020-11: $336.34 per share

- 2020-12: $350.68 per share

- 2021-01: $333.58 per share

- 2021-02: $332.22 per share

- 2021-03: $372.07 per share

- 2021-04: $398.80 per share

- 2021-05: $411.92 per share

- 2021-06: $400.44 per share

- 2021-07: $412.22 per share

- 2021-08: $416.27 per share

- 2021-09: $390.74 per share

- 2021-10: $460.47 per share

- 2021-11: $444.22 per share

- 2021-12: $502.14 per share

- 2022-01: $472.57 per share

- 2022-02: $475.87 per share

- 2022-03: $509.97 per share

- 2022-04: $508.55 per share

- 2022-05: $496.78 per share

- 2022-06: $513.63 per share

- 2022-07: $542.34 per share

- 2022-08: $519.33 per share

- 2022-09: $505.04 per share

- 2022-10: $555.15 per share

- 2022-11: $547.76 per share

- 2022-12: $530.18 per share

- 2023-01: $499.19 per share

- 2023-02: $475.94 per share

- 2023-03: $472.59 per share

- 2023-04: $492.09 per share

- 2023-05: $487.24 per share

- 2023-06: $480.64 per share

- 2023-07: $506.37 per share

- 2023-08: $476.58 per share

- 2023-09: $504.19 per share

- 2023-10: $535.56 per share

- 2023-11: $552.97 per share

- 2023-12: $526.47 per share

- 2024-01: $511.74 per share

- 2024-02: $493.60 per share

- 2024-03: $494.70 per share

- 2024-04: $483.70 per share

- 2024-05: $495.37 per share

- 2024-06: $509.26 per share

- 2024-07: $576.16 per share

- 2024-08: $590.20 per share

- 2024-09: $584.68 per share

- 2024-10: $564.50 per share

- 2024-11: $610.20 per share

- 2024-12: $505.86 per share

- 2025-01: $542.49 per share

- 2025-02: $474.96 per share

- 2025-03: $523.75 per share

- 2025-04: $411.44 per share

- 2025-05: $301.91 per share

- 2025-06: $311.97 per share

- 2025-07: $249.56 per share

- 2025-08: $309.87 per share

- 2025-09: $345.30 per share

- 2025-10: $341.56 per share

- 2025-11: $329.77 per share

- 2025-12: $330.11 per share

- 2026-01: $286.93 per share

- 2026-02: $293.27 per share

- 2026-03: $270.59 per share

- 2026-04: $370.48 per share

- 2026-05: $380.31 per share

- 2026-06: $415.63 per share

- 2026-07: $414.40 per share

- 2026-08: $389.41 per share

- 2026-09: $367.08 per share

- 2026-10: $377.76 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $90.38 per share, central $102.84 per share, high $119.43 per share

- FY2017: low $96.66 per share, central $109.99 per share, high $127.73 per share

- FY2018: low $144.72 per share, central $211.12 per share, high $248.15 per share

- FY2019: low $195.07 per share, central $284.56 per share, high $334.47 per share

- FY2020: low $212.11 per share, central $309.41 per share, high $363.69 per share

- FY2021: low $261.35 per share, central $381.25 per share, high $448.13 per share

- FY2022: low $308.97 per share, central $450.72 per share, high $529.78 per share

- FY2023: low $358.74 per share, central $523.32 per share, high $615.11 per share

- FY2024: low $390.14 per share, central $569.13 per share, high $668.96 per share

- FY2025: low $331.59 per share, central $377.31 per share, high $438.18 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:29.085Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/731766/000073176626000062/unh-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.