# Union Pacific (UNP.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UNP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:44.656Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $288.71 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $127.82 per share, central $147.79 per share, high $171.36 per share. Buy at or below the central value $147.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:44.656Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.38×

- FY2018: 0.37×

- FY2019: 0.39×

- FY2020: 0.40×

- FY2021: 0.43×

- FY2022: 0.40×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: 0.40×

- FY2025: 0.40×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.40×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 11.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 45.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.1%

- FY2017: 19.9%

- FY2018: 12.3%

- FY2019: 11.5%

- FY2020: 10.7%

- FY2021: 16.1%

- FY2022: 16.6%

- FY2023: 14.7%

- FY2024: 15.4%

- FY2025: 15.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $31B

- Net income, five-year total: $34B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 20.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.80×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 0.90×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.1% vs 15.4%

- Per-share earnings: 5.49 to 11.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- Market cap gain: $53B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $37B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.2%

- Per-share value change: $5.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.49

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $11.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.41

- Average buyback yield: 3.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $13B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $66B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.07

- FY2017: $13.36

- FY2018: $7.91

- FY2019: $8.38

- FY2020: $7.88

- FY2021: $9.95

- FY2022: $11.21

- FY2023: $10.45

- FY2024: $11.09

- FY2025: $11.98

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.97×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -3.0%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: -3.1%

## Holders

- [Seth Klarman](https://gigainvestors.com/BAUPOST): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Edgar Wachenheim](https://gigainvestors.com/GA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Daniel Loeb](https://gigainvestors.com/tp): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years · "Union Pacific (UNP) Sees Truck-to-Rail Shift as Diesel Prices Surge" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:46.081Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-24: Union Pacific misses quarterly estimates on weak auto shipments ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/railroad-operator-union-pacific-misses-122941413.html))

- 2026-01-27: Union Pacific misses Q4 estimates as revenue dips amid lower volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/union-pacific-misses-q4-estimates-132620826.html))

- 2026-04-23: Union Pacific beats estimates as efficiency gains lift profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/union-pacific-beats-estimates-efficiency-123142024.html))

- 2026-07-23: Union Pacific posts record financial results, raises outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/union-pacific-posts-record-financial-191940117.html))

- 2026-08-17: Union Pacific's fuel surcharges outpace fuel expenses in Q2 ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4633780-union-pacifics-fuel-surcharges-outpace-fuel-expenses-in-q2?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-09-16: Union Pacific Sees Broad Volume Growth as Fuel Costs Threaten Operating Ratio ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/union-pacific-sees-broad-volume-230218536.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: $21B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $22B 

- FY2020: $20B 

- FY2021: $22B 

- FY2022: $25B 

- FY2023: $24B 

- FY2024: $24B 

- FY2025: $25B 

- FY2026: $25B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 59.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2016: 41.5% 

- FY2017: 42.4% 

- FY2018: 41.8% 

- FY2019: 44.3% 

- FY2020: 47.0% 

- FY2021: 48.2% 

- FY2022: 45.0% 

- FY2023: 43.7% 

- FY2024: 45.5% 

- FY2025: 59.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are USD 24.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: revenue 24510000000; grossProfit 14553000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UNP.US: Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.7% to 59.4% during 2023–25; it earns 15.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.14067019820248794],[2017,0.1993569927043403],[2018,0.12290644171688249],[2019,0.11487087472452617],[2020,0.10652343679695633],[2021,0.16093646749917567],[2022,0.16593609434419107],[2023,0.1469185857588401],[2024,0.1542331315095451],[2025,0.1571518807525384]]; median 0.1505758586341926. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 9.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 20.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3505000000; owner earnings 2766000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2017: growth capex 1152000000; upkeep 2105000000; owner earnings 10712000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1075429424943988.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2018: growth capex 1246000000; upkeep 2191000000; owner earnings 5966000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20885015085484412.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3453000000; owner earnings 4682000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2927000000; owner earnings 4632000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2021: growth capex 728000000; upkeep 2208000000; owner earnings 6523000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11160508968266135.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2022: growth capex 1374000000; upkeep 2246000000; owner earnings 6998000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19634181194627037.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3606000000; owner earnings 5091000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: growth capex 328000964.2712221; upkeep 3123999035.728778; owner earnings 6021000964.271222. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05447615209125334.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: growth capex 630872300.1748576; upkeep 3160127699.8251424; owner earnings 6442872300.174858. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09791786501150052.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Incremental return on capital 0.2009680623993016, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,1879000000],[2017,1982000000],[2018,2299000000],[2019,2598000000],[2020,2626000000],[2021,2800000000],[2022,3159000000],[2023,3173000000],[2024,3213000000],[2025,3236000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: cash repurchases 2679000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UNP.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.07100000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Financial risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); Financial risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1293603062661718. Price 288.71; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.454566367609846 → FY2025 10.812002517494308. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $88.18 per share

- 2016-11: $101.33 per share

- 2016-12: $103.68 per share

- 2017-01: $106.58 per share

- 2017-02: $107.94 per share

- 2017-03: $105.92 per share

- 2017-04: $111.96 per share

- 2017-05: $110.30 per share

- 2017-06: $108.91 per share

- 2017-07: $102.96 per share

- 2017-08: $105.30 per share

- 2017-09: $115.97 per share

- 2017-10: $115.79 per share

- 2017-11: $126.50 per share

- 2017-12: $134.10 per share

- 2018-01: $133.50 per share

- 2018-02: $130.25 per share

- 2018-03: $134.43 per share

- 2018-04: $133.63 per share

- 2018-05: $142.76 per share

- 2018-06: $141.68 per share

- 2018-07: $149.89 per share

- 2018-08: $150.62 per share

- 2018-09: $162.83 per share

- 2018-10: $146.22 per share

- 2018-11: $153.78 per share

- 2018-12: $138.23 per share

- 2019-01: $159.07 per share

- 2019-02: $167.70 per share

- 2019-03: $167.20 per share

- 2019-04: $177.04 per share

- 2019-05: $166.78 per share

- 2019-06: $169.11 per share

- 2019-07: $179.95 per share

- 2019-08: $161.96 per share

- 2019-09: $161.98 per share

- 2019-10: $165.46 per share

- 2019-11: $175.99 per share

- 2019-12: $180.79 per share

- 2020-01: $179.42 per share

- 2020-02: $159.81 per share

- 2020-03: $141.04 per share

- 2020-04: $159.79 per share

- 2020-05: $169.86 per share

- 2020-06: $169.07 per share

- 2020-07: $173.35 per share

- 2020-08: $192.44 per share

- 2020-09: $196.87 per share

- 2020-10: $177.19 per share

- 2020-11: $204.08 per share

- 2020-12: $208.22 per share

- 2021-01: $197.47 per share

- 2021-02: $205.96 per share

- 2021-03: $220.41 per share

- 2021-04: $222.09 per share

- 2021-05: $224.73 per share

- 2021-06: $219.93 per share

- 2021-07: $218.76 per share

- 2021-08: $216.84 per share

- 2021-09: $196.01 per share

- 2021-10: $241.40 per share

- 2021-11: $235.64 per share

- 2021-12: $251.93 per share

- 2022-01: $244.55 per share

- 2022-02: $245.95 per share

- 2022-03: $273.21 per share

- 2022-04: $234.29 per share

- 2022-05: $219.78 per share

- 2022-06: $213.28 per share

- 2022-07: $227.30 per share

- 2022-08: $224.51 per share

- 2022-09: $194.82 per share

- 2022-10: $197.14 per share

- 2022-11: $217.43 per share

- 2022-12: $207.07 per share

- 2023-01: $204.19 per share

- 2023-02: $207.28 per share

- 2023-03: $201.26 per share

- 2023-04: $195.70 per share

- 2023-05: $192.52 per share

- 2023-06: $204.62 per share

- 2023-07: $232.02 per share

- 2023-08: $220.57 per share

- 2023-09: $203.63 per share

- 2023-10: $207.61 per share

- 2023-11: $225.27 per share

- 2023-12: $245.62 per share

- 2024-01: $243.93 per share

- 2024-02: $253.69 per share

- 2024-03: $245.93 per share

- 2024-04: $237.16 per share

- 2024-05: $232.82 per share

- 2024-06: $226.26 per share

- 2024-07: $246.73 per share

- 2024-08: $256.09 per share

- 2024-09: $246.48 per share

- 2024-10: $232.07 per share

- 2024-11: $244.66 per share

- 2024-12: $228.04 per share

- 2025-01: $247.79 per share

- 2025-02: $246.69 per share

- 2025-03: $236.24 per share

- 2025-04: $215.66 per share

- 2025-05: $221.66 per share

- 2025-06: $230.08 per share

- 2025-07: $221.97 per share

- 2025-08: $223.57 per share

- 2025-09: $236.37 per share

- 2025-10: $220.37 per share

- 2025-11: $231.83 per share

- 2025-12: $231.32 per share

- 2026-01: $235.10 per share

- 2026-02: $264.98 per share

- 2026-03: $242.62 per share

- 2026-04: $269.48 per share

- 2026-05: $262.64 per share

- 2026-06: $272.00 per share

- 2026-07: $292.13 per share

- 2026-08: $300.67 per share

- 2026-09: $272.13 per share

- 2026-10: $282.36 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $50.28 per share, central $57.06 per share, high $66.09 per share

- FY2017: low $59.03 per share, central $67.01 per share, high $77.62 per share

- FY2018: low $84.13 per share, central $111.56 per share, high $130.42 per share

- FY2019: low $89.88 per share, central $126.79 per share, high $148.75 per share

- FY2020: low $76.72 per share, central $86.99 per share, high $100.68 per share

- FY2021: low $95.89 per share, central $108.99 per share, high $126.43 per share

- FY2022: low $120.07 per share, central $143.28 per share, high $166.70 per share

- FY2023: low $106.99 per share, central $126.05 per share, high $146.52 per share

- FY2024: low $110.79 per share, central $128.08 per share, high $148.73 per share

- FY2025: low $119.91 per share, central $136.21 per share, high $157.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:30.072Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.