# United Parcel Service (UPS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UPS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:45.303Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $97.83 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $76.02 per share, central $86.14 per share, high $99.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value $86.14 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:45.303Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 30.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 29.8%

- FY2018: 33.3%

- FY2019: 31.7%

- FY2020: 30.5%

- FY2021: 39.9%

- FY2022: 32.1%

- FY2023: 22.1%

- FY2024: 21.3%

- FY2025: 18.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 15.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.94×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $40B

- Net income, five-year total: $43B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 0.73×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 33.3% vs 21.3%

- Per-share earnings: 5.35 to 6.75 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: -$17B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $15B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.0%

- Per-share value change: $1.41

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $5.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.75

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.07

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $6.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $61B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 33.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.87

- FY2017: $5.61

- FY2018: $5.51

- FY2019: $5.11

- FY2020: $1.54

- FY2021: $14.68

- FY2022: $13.20

- FY2023: $7.80

- FY2024: $6.75

- FY2025: $6.56

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.52×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.61×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.5%

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: -16.0%

- FY2019: -7.3%

- FY2020: -14.6%

- FY2021: -3.1%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -6.2%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Miller](https://gigainvestors.com/LMM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bruce Berkowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/fairx): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 54% since Mar 2022 · "Amazon is now competing directly with UPS across freight, distribution, and parcel shipping." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +1.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:46.215Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: UPS (UPS) to Cut 20,000 Jobs, Citing Amazon Volume Drop and Tariff Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-ups-cut-20-000-203327276.html))

- 2025-07-29: UPS posts tepid results amid tariff, restructuring challenges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-posts-tepid-results-amid-200110045.html))

- 2025-10-28: UPS forecasts fourth-quarter revenue above estimates, shares surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-forecasts-fourth-quarter-revenue-101514612.html))

- 2026-02-02: UPS Resets Network To Favour Automation And Higher Margin Deliveries ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-resets-network-favour-automation-010600422.html))

- 2026-03-11: UPS navigates Amazon draw down in hard pivot to premium services ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-navigates-amazon-draw-down-133445533.html))

- 2026-04-15: United Parcel Service (UPS) Is Up 5.8% After Network-Wide RFID Rollout Across U.S. Operations ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/united-parcel-ups-5-8-201334611.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2017: $66B 

- FY2018: $72B 

- FY2019: $74B 

- FY2020: $84B 

- FY2021: $97B 

- FY2022: $100B 

- FY2023: $91B 

- FY2024: $91B 

- FY2025: $89B 

- FY2026: $90B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 16.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2017: 11.4% 

- FY2018: 19.7% 

- FY2019: 21.8% 

- FY2020: 25.8% 

- FY2021: 17.9% 

- FY2022: 20.1% 

- FY2023: 19.5% 

- FY2024: 18.8% 

- FY2025: 18.1% 

- FY2026: 16.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are USD 88.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 88661000000; grossProfit 16030000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UPS.US: United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.1% to 19.5% during 2023–25; it earns 30.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 19.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2982188310519528],[2018,0.33296424016868353],[2019,0.3174658163639373],[2020,0.30473204250181385],[2021,0.39930698709817763],[2022,0.3207939773074213],[2023,0.22133543608448408],[2024,0.21251381050494192],[2025,0.18489643664151867],[2026,0.1538218938739737]]; median 0.3014754367768833. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 741000000; upkeep 2224000000; owner earnings 3431000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21597201981929467.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 1585949757.548812; upkeep 3641050242.451188; owner earnings 3550949757.548812. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4466269211996901.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 1983681590.554021; upkeep 4299318409.445979; owner earnings 2698681590.554021. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7350558129930344.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 698424998.6282835; upkeep 5681575001.3717165; owner earnings 1118424998.6282835. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6244719131679656.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 2714000000; upkeep 2698000000; owner earnings 1343000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.020848845867461.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 1241000000; upkeep 2953000000; owner earnings 12890000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09627618308766486.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 1112750200.3516717; upkeep 3656249799.6483283; owner earnings 11079750200.351671. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10043098266929817.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5158000000; owner earnings 4916000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 62381156.43455458; upkeep 3846618843.5654454; owner earnings 5544381156.434555. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.011251238808168494.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3685000000; owner earnings 5633000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,2643000000],[2017,2771000000],[2018,3011000000],[2019,3194000000],[2020,3374000000],[2021,3437000000],[2022,5114000000],[2023,5372000000],[2024,5399000000],[2025,5398000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 1000000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UPS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.017 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Changes in our relationships with any of our significant customers" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Changes in our relationships with any of our significant customers

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.023349399995210462. Price 97.83; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.067649540027563 → FY2025 6.627058823529412. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $107.76 per share

- 2016-11: $115.92 per share

- 2016-12: $114.64 per share

- 2017-01: $109.13 per share

- 2017-02: $105.76 per share

- 2017-03: $107.30 per share

- 2017-04: $107.46 per share

- 2017-05: $105.97 per share

- 2017-06: $110.59 per share

- 2017-07: $110.29 per share

- 2017-08: $114.36 per share

- 2017-09: $120.09 per share

- 2017-10: $117.53 per share

- 2017-11: $121.45 per share

- 2017-12: $119.15 per share

- 2018-01: $127.32 per share

- 2018-02: $104.41 per share

- 2018-03: $104.66 per share

- 2018-04: $113.50 per share

- 2018-05: $116.12 per share

- 2018-06: $106.23 per share

- 2018-07: $119.89 per share

- 2018-08: $122.88 per share

- 2018-09: $116.75 per share

- 2018-10: $106.54 per share

- 2018-11: $115.29 per share

- 2018-12: $97.53 per share

- 2019-01: $105.40 per share

- 2019-02: $110.20 per share

- 2019-03: $111.74 per share

- 2019-04: $106.22 per share

- 2019-05: $92.92 per share

- 2019-06: $103.27 per share

- 2019-07: $119.47 per share

- 2019-08: $118.66 per share

- 2019-09: $119.82 per share

- 2019-10: $115.17 per share

- 2019-11: $119.73 per share

- 2019-12: $117.06 per share

- 2020-01: $103.52 per share

- 2020-02: $90.49 per share

- 2020-03: $93.42 per share

- 2020-04: $94.66 per share

- 2020-05: $99.71 per share

- 2020-06: $111.18 per share

- 2020-07: $142.76 per share

- 2020-08: $163.62 per share

- 2020-09: $166.63 per share

- 2020-10: $157.11 per share

- 2020-11: $171.07 per share

- 2020-12: $168.40 per share

- 2021-01: $155.00 per share

- 2021-02: $157.83 per share

- 2021-03: $169.99 per share

- 2021-04: $203.86 per share

- 2021-05: $214.60 per share

- 2021-06: $207.97 per share

- 2021-07: $191.36 per share

- 2021-08: $195.63 per share

- 2021-09: $182.10 per share

- 2021-10: $213.47 per share

- 2021-11: $198.37 per share

- 2021-12: $214.34 per share

- 2022-01: $202.21 per share

- 2022-02: $210.42 per share

- 2022-03: $214.46 per share

- 2022-04: $179.98 per share

- 2022-05: $182.25 per share

- 2022-06: $182.54 per share

- 2022-07: $194.89 per share

- 2022-08: $194.51 per share

- 2022-09: $161.54 per share

- 2022-10: $167.77 per share

- 2022-11: $189.73 per share

- 2022-12: $173.84 per share

- 2023-01: $185.23 per share

- 2023-02: $182.49 per share

- 2023-03: $193.99 per share

- 2023-04: $179.81 per share

- 2023-05: $167.00 per share

- 2023-06: $179.25 per share

- 2023-07: $187.13 per share

- 2023-08: $169.40 per share

- 2023-09: $155.87 per share

- 2023-10: $141.25 per share

- 2023-11: $151.61 per share

- 2023-12: $157.23 per share

- 2024-01: $141.90 per share

- 2024-02: $148.26 per share

- 2024-03: $148.63 per share

- 2024-04: $147.48 per share

- 2024-05: $138.93 per share

- 2024-06: $136.85 per share

- 2024-07: $130.37 per share

- 2024-08: $128.55 per share

- 2024-09: $136.34 per share

- 2024-10: $134.06 per share

- 2024-11: $135.72 per share

- 2024-12: $126.10 per share

- 2025-01: $114.23 per share

- 2025-02: $119.03 per share

- 2025-03: $109.99 per share

- 2025-04: $95.30 per share

- 2025-05: $97.54 per share

- 2025-06: $100.94 per share

- 2025-07: $86.16 per share

- 2025-08: $87.44 per share

- 2025-09: $83.53 per share

- 2025-10: $96.42 per share

- 2025-11: $95.79 per share

- 2025-12: $99.19 per share

- 2026-01: $106.22 per share

- 2026-02: $115.96 per share

- 2026-03: $98.38 per share

- 2026-04: $108.80 per share

- 2026-05: $106.69 per share

- 2026-06: $107.50 per share

- 2026-07: $104.22 per share

- 2026-08: $104.23 per share

- 2026-09: $93.44 per share

- 2026-10: $94.79 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $46.05 per share, central $51.88 per share, high $59.64 per share

- FY2017: low $54.49 per share, central $68.19 per share, high $79.12 per share

- FY2018: low $53.72 per share, central $62.57 per share, high $72.22 per share

- FY2019: low $54.92 per share, central $61.83 per share, high $71.03 per share

- FY2020: low $45.08 per share, central $50.56 per share, high $57.86 per share

- FY2021: low $63.86 per share, central $84.57 per share, high $97.59 per share

- FY2022: low $68.06 per share, central $96.64 per share, high $112.58 per share

- FY2023: low $69.81 per share, central $78.92 per share, high $91.06 per share

- FY2024: low $78.08 per share, central $88.41 per share, high $102.17 per share

- FY2025: low $75.99 per share, central $85.98 per share, high $99.27 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:30.655Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.