# Upwork (UPWK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UPWK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:45.436Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $8.74 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.48 per share, central $10.13 per share, high $10.99 per share. Buy at or below the central value $10.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:45.436Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.6% at the stated quote. About 12.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 6

- Operating margin variation: 17.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.02×

- FY2018: -0.05×

- FY2019: -0.06×

- FY2020: -0.06×

- FY2021: -0.11×

- FY2022: -0.15×

- FY2023: -0.02×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -33.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -104.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 72.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 77.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -12.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.0%

- FY2017: -100.0%

- FY2018: -45.6%

- FY2019: -29.6%

- FY2020: -38.2%

- FY2021: -104.7%

- FY2022: -281.6%

- FY2023: -13.4%

- FY2024: 32.4%

- FY2025: 52.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.15×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $266M

- Net income, five-year total: $232M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.86×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.18×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -45.6% vs 32.4%

- Per-share earnings: -0.38 to 0.82 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.5%

- Market cap gain: $660M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $180M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $1.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.38

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.82

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 4.9%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $152M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -45.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 32.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.51

- FY2017: -$0.04

- FY2018: -$0.38

- FY2019: -$0.15

- FY2020: -$0.19

- FY2021: -$0.44

- FY2022: -$0.69

- FY2023: $0.34

- FY2024: $1.51

- FY2025: $0.82

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -10.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 26.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.15×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.8%

- FY2017: -0.0%

- FY2018: -8.6%

- FY2019: -4.0%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: -6.2%

- FY2022: -9.4%

- FY2023: -0.6%

- FY2024: 5.1%

- FY2025: -10.2%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 81% since Oct 2021 · "Upwork (UPWK) Posts A Profit Beat, But Cuts Its Growth Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -0.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:46.301Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-06: Update: Upwork Shares Rise After Q1 Earnings, Revenue Top Estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/upwork-shares-rise-q1-earnings-153137401.html))

- 2025-08-07: Upwork signals 2026 growth with AI-driven platform and enterprise acquisitions ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4480821-upwork-signals-2026-growth-with-ai-driven-platform-and-enterprise-acquisitions?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-04: UPWK Q3 Deep Dive: AI Product Enhancements and SMB Focus Drive Turnaround ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/upwk-q3-deep-dive-ai-134543391.html))

- 2026-05-15: UPWK Q1 Deep Dive: Lowered Revenue Outlook and Cost Cuts Amid AI Shifts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/upwk-q1-deep-dive-lowered-223655349.html))

- 2026-08-20: Upwork (UPWK) Posts A Profit Beat, But Cuts Its Growth Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/upwork-upwk-posts-profit-beat-103703891.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -0.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $203M 

- FY2018: $253M 

- FY2019: $301M 

- FY2020: $374M 

- FY2021: $503M 

- FY2022: $618M 

- FY2023: $689M 

- FY2024: $769M 

- FY2025: $788M 

- FY2026: $787M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 77.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 61.9% 

- FY2017: 67.7% 

- FY2018: 67.8% 

- FY2019: 70.7% 

- FY2020: 72.1% 

- FY2021: 73.0% 

- FY2022: 74.1% 

- FY2023: 75.3% 

- FY2024: 77.4% 

- FY2025: 77.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet content & information; annual sales are USD 787.8 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 787784000; grossProfit 613032000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); UPWK.US: Upwork Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides platforms and workforce solutions that connect businesses with freelance, agency, fractional, and payrolled talent in the United States, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, and internationally. The company offers Upwork Marketplace, a human and AI-powered work marketplace that connects businesses with on-demand access to independent talent across a range of categories, including AI-related projects, administrative support, sales and marketing, design and creative, and customer service, as well as web, mobile, and software development. Its marketplace also streamlines workflows, such as talent sourcing, outreach, contracting, and engagement management, as well as provides infrastructure for remote collaboration, including communication and collaboration tools, consolidated invoicing, and payment protection; and Upwork Payroll services. It also offers enterprise solutions that provide access to platform capabilities that support contingent workforce solutions, including sourcing, onboarding, classification, compliance and contract management, payments, and reporting. In addition, the company offers managed services that provide a service-led program management and end-to-end project delivery solution that enables enterprise clients to outsource defined functions or projects; Uma, an AI assistant; and escrow services. The company was formerly known as Elance-oDesk, Inc. and changed its name to Upwork Inc. in May 2015. Upwork Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 75.3% to 77.8% during 2023–25; it lost 33.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 75.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 77.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 77.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0],[2017,-1.0004744525547444],[2018,-0.45560764230844986],[2019,-0.2958768369489153],[2020,-0.3815648575246799],[2021,-1.047376876803443],[2022,-2.8158608481490033],[2023,-0.13398108822592542],[2024,0.3238746144408958],[2025,0.5249983070128955]]; median -0.33872084723679763. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 42.9% of cash earnings; paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 3633000; upkeep 12718000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 46887000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07748416405400217.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 14444000; cash acquisitions 14333000; owner earnings 218792000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06550970785037843.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 5790000; cash acquisitions 58406000; owner earnings 136086000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.42918448628073425.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 135959000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0533173288591508. Price 8.74; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-10: $19.20 per share

- 2018-11: $18.63 per share

- 2018-12: $18.11 per share

- 2019-01: $19.31 per share

- 2019-02: $23.69 per share

- 2019-03: $19.14 per share

- 2019-04: $19.99 per share

- 2019-05: $14.98 per share

- 2019-06: $16.08 per share

- 2019-07: $16.44 per share

- 2019-08: $14.46 per share

- 2019-09: $13.31 per share

- 2019-10: $15.04 per share

- 2019-11: $11.65 per share

- 2019-12: $10.67 per share

- 2020-01: $9.18 per share

- 2020-02: $8.67 per share

- 2020-03: $6.45 per share

- 2020-04: $8.33 per share

- 2020-05: $12.44 per share

- 2020-06: $14.44 per share

- 2020-07: $15.02 per share

- 2020-08: $15.23 per share

- 2020-09: $17.44 per share

- 2020-10: $18.45 per share

- 2020-11: $32.72 per share

- 2020-12: $34.52 per share

- 2021-01: $41.45 per share

- 2021-02: $53.88 per share

- 2021-03: $44.77 per share

- 2021-04: $46.06 per share

- 2021-05: $47.07 per share

- 2021-06: $58.29 per share

- 2021-07: $51.79 per share

- 2021-08: $44.71 per share

- 2021-09: $45.03 per share

- 2021-10: $47.12 per share

- 2021-11: $37.26 per share

- 2021-12: $34.16 per share

- 2022-01: $27.20 per share

- 2022-02: $25.28 per share

- 2022-03: $23.24 per share

- 2022-04: $20.97 per share

- 2022-05: $18.25 per share

- 2022-06: $20.68 per share

- 2022-07: $18.56 per share

- 2022-08: $17.40 per share

- 2022-09: $13.62 per share

- 2022-10: $13.45 per share

- 2022-11: $12.25 per share

- 2022-12: $10.44 per share

- 2023-01: $12.96 per share

- 2023-02: $11.34 per share

- 2023-03: $11.32 per share

- 2023-04: $9.57 per share

- 2023-05: $8.20 per share

- 2023-06: $9.34 per share

- 2023-07: $10.43 per share

- 2023-08: $14.81 per share

- 2023-09: $11.36 per share

- 2023-10: $10.45 per share

- 2023-11: $14.09 per share

- 2023-12: $14.87 per share

- 2024-01: $13.71 per share

- 2024-02: $13.10 per share

- 2024-03: $12.26 per share

- 2024-04: $11.70 per share

- 2024-05: $10.57 per share

- 2024-06: $10.75 per share

- 2024-07: $12.12 per share

- 2024-08: $9.64 per share

- 2024-09: $10.45 per share

- 2024-10: $13.56 per share

- 2024-11: $16.97 per share

- 2024-12: $16.35 per share

- 2025-01: $15.76 per share

- 2025-02: $15.93 per share

- 2025-03: $13.05 per share

- 2025-04: $13.15 per share

- 2025-05: $15.49 per share

- 2025-06: $13.44 per share

- 2025-07: $11.96 per share

- 2025-08: $15.39 per share

- 2025-09: $18.57 per share

- 2025-10: $15.94 per share

- 2025-11: $19.74 per share

- 2025-12: $19.82 per share

- 2026-01: $20.03 per share

- 2026-02: $13.42 per share

- 2026-03: $10.96 per share

- 2026-04: $10.35 per share

- 2026-05: $8.82 per share

- 2026-06: $8.36 per share

- 2026-07: $9.16 per share

- 2026-08: $9.03 per share

- 2026-09: $8.16 per share

- 2026-10: $8.74 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2025: low $8.86 per share, central $9.44 per share, high $10.20 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1627475/000162747526000012/upwk-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.