# US Foods Holding (USFD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/USFD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:46.648Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $101.47 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $31.64 per share, central $36.00 per share, high $41.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value $36.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:46.648Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.4% at the stated quote. About 5.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: -0.00×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.3%

- FY2017: 22.6%

- FY2018: 19.3%

- FY2019: 13.1%

- FY2020: -1.6%

- FY2021: 8.2%

- FY2022: 12.9%

- FY2023: 19.3%

- FY2024: 20.8%

- FY2025: 22.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.21×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.63×

- FY2022: 1.40×

- FY2023: 1.17×

- FY2024: 1.20×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.3% vs 20.8%

- Per-share earnings: 1.03 to 2.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.8%

- Per-share value change: $1.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.02

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.33

- Average buyback yield: 2.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $3.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.03

- FY2017: $1.96

- FY2018: $1.87

- FY2019: $1.75

- FY2020: -$1.03

- FY2021: $0.73

- FY2022: $1.17

- FY2023: $2.02

- FY2024: $2.02

- FY2025: $2.94

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -5.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.03×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.53×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.9%

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -2.2%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: -3.9%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -5.1%

- FY2025: -5.0%

## Holders

- [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:46.632Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-07: US Foods Misses Quarterly Sales Estimates, Confirms Takeover Interest in Performance Food ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-foods-misses-quarterly-sales-172458661.html))

- 2026-02-12: US Foods' Fourth-Quarter Profit Beat Estimates Despite Sales Miss; Shares Jump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-foods-apos-fourth-quarter-184632721.html))

- 2026-03-14: What US Foods Holding (USFD)'s Cost-Driven Earnings Beat Amid Revenue Pressure Means For Shareholders ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-foods-holding-usfd-cost-200641225.html))

- 2026-08-10: USFD Q2 Deep Dive: Market Share and AI Adoption Drive Strong Volume Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/usfd-q2-deep-dive-market-090922557.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: $23B 

- FY2017: $24B 

- FY2018: $24B 

- FY2019: $26B 

- FY2020: $23B 

- FY2021: $29B 

- FY2022: $34B 

- FY2023: $36B 

- FY2024: $38B 

- FY2025: $39B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 17.7% 

- FY2017: 17.5% 

- FY2018: 17.8% 

- FY2019: 17.7% 

- FY2020: 16.3% 

- FY2021: 15.8% 

- FY2022: 16.1% 

- FY2023: 17.3% 

- FY2024: 17.3% 

- FY2025: 17.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in food distribution; annual sales are USD 39.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 39424000000; grossProfit 6864000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); USFD.US: US Foods Holding Corp., together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application. Its customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.3% to 17.4% during 2023–25; it earns 18.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17293033548897807],[2017,0.22613705982594368],[2018,0.19331595116824318],[2019,0.1310059292578205],[2020,-0.016113907284768213],[2021,0.08184750111819958],[2022,0.12946671869306253],[2023,0.19308616752349334],[2024,0.20804075326886434],[2025,0.22107981980881897]]; median 0.1830082515062357. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 16% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.15786617831586802],[2022,0.16125906568400036],[2023,0.1727111835267017]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 18% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 7 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 164000000; cash acquisitions 122000000; owner earnings 467000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.26124197002141325.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 221000000; cash acquisitions 182000000; owner earnings 601000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.30282861896838603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 235000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 512000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 258000000; cash acquisitions 1832000000; owner earnings 489000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.7464212678936604.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 189000000; cash acquisitions 972000000; owner earnings 7000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 138.85714285714286.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 274000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 268000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 265000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 372000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 309000000; cash acquisitions 196000000; owner earnings 592000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3310810810810811.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 341000000; cash acquisitions 214000000; owner earnings 591000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.36209813874788493.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 410000000; cash acquisitions 131000000; owner earnings 728000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.17994505494505494.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,666000000],[2017,0],[2018,28000000],[2019,33000000],[2020,28000000],[2021,28000000],[2022,37000000],[2023,7000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 976000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); USFD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.459 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18918036926502635. Price 101.47; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8965558561118213 → FY2025 3.1652173913043478. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $22.60 per share

- 2016-11: $22.86 per share

- 2016-12: $27.48 per share

- 2017-01: $27.20 per share

- 2017-02: $27.55 per share

- 2017-03: $27.98 per share

- 2017-04: $28.20 per share

- 2017-05: $29.96 per share

- 2017-06: $27.22 per share

- 2017-07: $28.15 per share

- 2017-08: $27.45 per share

- 2017-09: $26.70 per share

- 2017-10: $27.28 per share

- 2017-11: $29.12 per share

- 2017-12: $31.93 per share

- 2018-01: $32.13 per share

- 2018-02: $33.39 per share

- 2018-03: $32.77 per share

- 2018-04: $34.18 per share

- 2018-05: $35.68 per share

- 2018-06: $37.82 per share

- 2018-07: $33.81 per share

- 2018-08: $32.59 per share

- 2018-09: $30.82 per share

- 2018-10: $29.17 per share

- 2018-11: $33.18 per share

- 2018-12: $31.64 per share

- 2019-01: $33.72 per share

- 2019-02: $35.24 per share

- 2019-03: $34.91 per share

- 2019-04: $36.55 per share

- 2019-05: $34.56 per share

- 2019-06: $35.76 per share

- 2019-07: $35.37 per share

- 2019-08: $40.45 per share

- 2019-09: $41.10 per share

- 2019-10: $39.67 per share

- 2019-11: $39.77 per share

- 2019-12: $41.89 per share

- 2020-01: $40.17 per share

- 2020-02: $33.64 per share

- 2020-03: $17.71 per share

- 2020-04: $21.50 per share

- 2020-05: $19.14 per share

- 2020-06: $19.72 per share

- 2020-07: $20.30 per share

- 2020-08: $24.35 per share

- 2020-09: $22.22 per share

- 2020-10: $20.90 per share

- 2020-11: $31.48 per share

- 2020-12: $33.31 per share

- 2021-01: $30.99 per share

- 2021-02: $36.46 per share

- 2021-03: $38.12 per share

- 2021-04: $41.46 per share

- 2021-05: $38.94 per share

- 2021-06: $38.36 per share

- 2021-07: $34.34 per share

- 2021-08: $34.00 per share

- 2021-09: $34.66 per share

- 2021-10: $34.67 per share

- 2021-11: $31.42 per share

- 2021-12: $34.83 per share

- 2022-01: $35.26 per share

- 2022-02: $39.09 per share

- 2022-03: $37.63 per share

- 2022-04: $37.62 per share

- 2022-05: $33.12 per share

- 2022-06: $30.68 per share

- 2022-07: $31.50 per share

- 2022-08: $30.62 per share

- 2022-09: $26.44 per share

- 2022-10: $29.76 per share

- 2022-11: $36.58 per share

- 2022-12: $34.02 per share

- 2023-01: $38.13 per share

- 2023-02: $37.53 per share

- 2023-03: $36.94 per share

- 2023-04: $38.40 per share

- 2023-05: $39.78 per share

- 2023-06: $44.00 per share

- 2023-07: $42.73 per share

- 2023-08: $40.43 per share

- 2023-09: $39.70 per share

- 2023-10: $38.94 per share

- 2023-11: $43.83 per share

- 2023-12: $45.41 per share

- 2024-01: $46.01 per share

- 2024-02: $50.79 per share

- 2024-03: $53.97 per share

- 2024-04: $50.25 per share

- 2024-05: $52.83 per share

- 2024-06: $52.98 per share

- 2024-07: $54.39 per share

- 2024-08: $59.21 per share

- 2024-09: $61.50 per share

- 2024-10: $61.65 per share

- 2024-11: $69.77 per share

- 2024-12: $67.46 per share

- 2025-01: $70.93 per share

- 2025-02: $71.68 per share

- 2025-03: $65.46 per share

- 2025-04: $65.66 per share

- 2025-05: $79.12 per share

- 2025-06: $77.01 per share

- 2025-07: $83.33 per share

- 2025-08: $77.60 per share

- 2025-09: $76.62 per share

- 2025-10: $72.62 per share

- 2025-11: $78.67 per share

- 2025-12: $75.32 per share

- 2026-01: $83.62 per share

- 2026-02: $96.61 per share

- 2026-03: $92.21 per share

- 2026-04: $93.49 per share

- 2026-05: $81.85 per share

- 2026-06: $102.25 per share

- 2026-07: $100.59 per share

- 2026-08: $104.84 per share

- 2026-09: $92.21 per share

- 2026-10: $101.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $7.70 per share, central $8.76 per share, high $10.18 per share

- FY2017: low $9.72 per share, central $11.06 per share, high $12.84 per share

- FY2018: low $24.70 per share, central $28.10 per share, high $32.64 per share

- FY2019: low $26.26 per share, central $29.88 per share, high $34.70 per share

- FY2020: low $24.85 per share, central $28.04 per share, high $32.30 per share

- FY2021: low $27.00 per share, central $30.73 per share, high $35.68 per share

- FY2022: low $19.51 per share, central $24.19 per share, high $28.22 per share

- FY2023: low $17.00 per share, central $19.34 per share, high $22.46 per share

- FY2024: low $18.53 per share, central $21.09 per share, high $24.49 per share

- FY2025: low $29.23 per share, central $33.26 per share, high $38.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665918/000166591826000008/usfd-20251227.htm); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.