# Unite Group (UTG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UTG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 442.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 45.05 per share, central GBX 50.44 per share, high GBX 57.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 50.44 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.7% at the stated quote. About 3.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.55×

- FY2017: 0.57×

- FY2018: 0.62×

- FY2019: 0.61×

- FY2020: 0.55×

- FY2021: 0.65×

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: 0.56×

- FY2024: 0.56×

- FY2025: 0.46×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 71.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 66.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 60.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.6%

- FY2017: 4.0%

- FY2018: 4.0%

- FY2019: 1.6%

- FY2020: 2.0%

- FY2021: 3.7%

- FY2022: 4.4%

- FY2023: 3.0%

- FY2024: 2.8%

- FY2025: 2.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.15×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 204M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.68×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: -0.44×

- FY2024: 0.36×

- FY2025: -1.60×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.0% vs 2.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.93 to 0.24 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Market cap gain: GBP 1.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 866M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -15.8%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.93

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.24

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.89

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 13M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.93

- FY2017: GBP 0.90

- FY2018: GBP 0.90

- FY2019: GBP -0.29

- FY2020: GBP -0.30

- FY2021: GBP 0.86

- FY2022: GBP 0.87

- FY2023: GBP 0.24

- FY2024: GBP 0.92

- FY2025: GBP 0.20

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.86×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.5%

- FY2017: 6.8%

- FY2018: 6.2%

- FY2019: -3.3%

- FY2020: -3.7%

- FY2021: 3.4%

- FY2022: 3.5%

- FY2023: -0.9%

- FY2024: 3.5%

- FY2025: -0.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 62% since Jul 2022 · sales +11.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.658Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 30.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: GBP 157M 

- FY2017: GBP 157M 

- FY2018: GBP 170M 

- FY2019: GBP 156M 

- FY2020: GBP 216M 

- FY2021: GBP 267M 

- FY2022: GBP 259M 

- FY2023: GBP 276M 

- FY2024: GBP 299M 

- FY2025: GBP 333M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 66.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 71.3% 

- FY2017: 73.8% 

- FY2018: 76.3% 

- FY2019: 74.0% 

- FY2020: 71.0% 

- FY2021: 72.9% 

- FY2022: 69.9% 

- FY2023: 72.2% 

- FY2024: 71.1% 

- FY2025: 66.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are GBP 332.8 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2025: revenue 332800000; grossProfit 222200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UTG.LSE: Unite Group PLC is the UK's largest owner, manager and developer of purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) serving the country's world-leading higher education sector. Its property portfolio includes the Unite Students and Hello Student brands. Together, the Group provides homes for 72,000 students across 207 properties in 29 leading university towns and cities. The firm currently partners with over 60 universities across the UK. The people are driven by a shared purpose, (to provide a home for success for the students who live with us). The firm's accommodation is safe, secure, high quality and affordable, with students living predominantly in en-suite study bedrooms. Rents are all inclusive, covering bills, insurance, 24 hour security and high speed Wi Fi. Unite Group are committed to raising standards across the student accommodation sector for their customers, investors and employees. Their Sustainability Strategy includes a commitment to become net zero carbon across our operations and developments by 2030. Unite Group PLC was incorporated in 1991 in United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 66.8% to 72.2% during 2023–25; it earns 3.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 72.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 66.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04585072103956474],[2017,0.03959180905399794],[2018,0.04014350610316255],[2019,0.016149452437191326],[2020,0.020105597747248058],[2021,0.03726588557256478],[2022,0.044302374997611284],[2023,0.029779206529480837],[2024,0.0284230950520947],[2025,0.025068623611222793]]; median 0.03352254605102281. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 800000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3100000; owner earnings 225300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4400000; owner earnings 224200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1300000; owner earnings 241700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2021: growth capex 2499570.8620283604; upkeep 97000429.13797164; owner earnings 233839570.86202836. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01068925525655867.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 326200000; owner earnings 13640000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2024: growth capex 539699.5389843583; upkeep 274960300.46101564; owner earnings 158079699.53898436. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.003414097702350844.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,34200000],[2017,42300000],[2018,62300000],[2019,69600000],[2020,300700000],[2021,57200000],[2022,85100000],[2023,103400000],[2024,124200000],[2025,153700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 800000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UTG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.881 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 30.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:14.908Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4381598010662858. Price 442.8; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.4591609099126743 → FY2025 -0.3193875736247589. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 553.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 559.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 606.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 586.50 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 625.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 636.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 647.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 630.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 649.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 671.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 693.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 687.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 703.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 717.50 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 805.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 797.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 761.50 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 791.50 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 833.50 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 849.50 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 861.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 876.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 886.50 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 893.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 852.50 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 834.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 806.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 910.50 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 915.50 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 917.50 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 942.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 949.50 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 974.50 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,032.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,047.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,092.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,125.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,251.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 1,260.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,272.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,133.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 801.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 875.50 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 868.50 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 940.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 939.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 967.50 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 839.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 833.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 989.50 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,045.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 960.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 971.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,067.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 1,165.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 1,135.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 1,074.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,157.50 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,222.50 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 1,088.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,088.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 1,061.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 1,110.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,034.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,068.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,158.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,135.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,158.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,064.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,165.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,051.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 858.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 891.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 922.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 910.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 997.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 983.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 959.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 959.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 895.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 870.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 973.50 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 940.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 897.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 868.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 971.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,044.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,017.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 960.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 978.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 928.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 931.50 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 892.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 953.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 957.50 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 940.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 875.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 882.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 806.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 857.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 835.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 814.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 860.50 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 861.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 847.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 748.50 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 698.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 719.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 567.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 528.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 559.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 566.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 504.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 455.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 463.80 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 516.50 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 508.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 538.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 510.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 474.60 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 442.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 585.74 per share, central GBX 664.23 per share, high GBX 768.72 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 1,014.54 per share, central GBX 1,151.73 per share, high GBX 1,334.37 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,051.17 per share, central GBX 1,189.81 per share, high GBX 1,374.37 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 834.41 per share, central GBX 945.64 per share, high GBX 1,093.70 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 933.23 per share, central GBX 1,055.89 per share, high GBX 1,213.02 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 822.04 per share, central GBX 1,163.14 per share, high GBX 1,361.76 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 45.34 per share, central GBX 50.47 per share, high GBX 57.29 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 91.06 per share, central GBX 95.98 per share, high GBX 102.53 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 45.05 per share, central GBX 50.44 per share, high GBX 57.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Unite Group

UTG · LSE

FTSE 250 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

4 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 442.80
Buy up to: GBX 50.44
Expected / yr: 3.7% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 17.4% around their average (limit 35%), and 2 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 56.4%
Worst year: 46.0%
Latest · 2025: 46.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 3.4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 2% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 5 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 3.4%
Worst year: 1.6%
Latest · 2025: 2.5%

Each $1 of profit left $0.15 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned 4.8% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.15×
Annual median: 0.04×
Latest · 2025: -1.60×

Per-share value fell from 0.93 to 0.24, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 7.3% over ten years and 4.2% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.87
Worst year: GBP -0.30
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.20

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -0.9% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 3.4%
Worst year: 7.5%
Latest · 2025: -0.9%

Profit record · fail 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 60.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share -0.03 GBP. Three-year average owner earnings per share is not positive.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 553.50 · Value 664.23 · Buy at or below 664.23; 2016-11 · Price GBX 559.00 · Value 664.23 · Buy at or below 664.23; 2016-12 · Price GBX 606.00 · Value 664.23 · Buy at or below 664.23; 2017-01 · Price GBX 586.50 · Value 664.23 · Buy at or below 664.23; 2017-02 · Price GBX 625.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-03 · Price GBX 636.50 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-04 · Price GBX 647.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-05 · Price GBX 630.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-06 · Price GBX 649.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-07 · Price GBX 671.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-08 · Price GBX 693.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-09 · Price GBX 687.50 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-10 · Price GBX 703.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-11 · Price GBX 717.50 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2017-12 · Price GBX 805.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2018-01 · Price GBX 797.00 · Value 1151.73 · Buy at or below 1151.73; 2018-02 · Price GBX 761.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-03 · Price GBX 791.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-04 · Price GBX 833.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-05 · Price GBX 849.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-06 · Price GBX 861.00 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-07 · Price GBX 876.00 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-08 · Price GBX 886.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-09 · Price GBX 893.00 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-10 · Price GBX 852.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-11 · Price GBX 834.00 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2018-12 · Price GBX 806.00 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2019-01 · Price GBX 910.50 · Value 1189.81 · Buy at or below 1189.81; 2019-02 · Price GBX 915.50 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-03 · Price GBX 917.50 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-04 · Price GBX 942.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-05 · Price GBX 949.50 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-06 · Price GBX 974.50 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-07 · Price GBX 1032.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-08 · Price GBX 1047.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-09 · Price GBX 1092.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-10 · Price GBX 1125.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-11 · Price GBX 1251.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2019-12 · Price GBX 1260.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1272.00 · Value 945.64 · Buy at or below 945.64; 2020-02 · Price GBX 1133.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-03 · Price GBX 801.50 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-04 · Price GBX 875.50 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-05 · Price GBX 868.50 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-06 · Price GBX 940.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-07 · Price GBX 939.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-08 · Price GBX 967.50 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-09 · Price GBX 839.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-10 · Price GBX 833.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-11 · Price GBX 989.50 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2020-12 · Price GBX 1045.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2021-01 · Price GBX 960.00 · Value 1055.89 · Buy at or below 1055.89; 2021-02 · Price GBX 971.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-03 · Price GBX 1067.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-04 · Price GBX 1165.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-05 · Price GBX 1135.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-06 · Price GBX 1074.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-07 · Price GBX 1157.50 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-08 · Price GBX 1222.50 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-09 · Price GBX 1088.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-10 · Price GBX 1088.50 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-11 · Price GBX 1061.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2021-12 · Price GBX 1110.50 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2022-01 · Price GBX 1034.00 · Value 1163.14 · Buy at or below 1163.14; 2022-02 · Price GBX 1068.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-03 · Price GBX 1158.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-04 · Price GBX 1135.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-05 · Price GBX 1158.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-06 · Price GBX 1064.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-07 · Price GBX 1165.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-08 · Price GBX 1051.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-09 · Price GBX 858.50 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-10 · Price GBX 891.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-11 · Price GBX 922.50 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2022-12 · Price GBX 910.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2023-01 · Price GBX 997.00 · Value 50.47 · Buy at or below 50.47; 2023-02 · Price GBX 983.00; 2023-03 · Price GBX 959.50; 2023-04 · Price GBX 959.00; 2023-05 · Price GBX 895.00; 2023-06 · Price GBX 870.00; 2023-07 · Price GBX 973.50; 2023-08 · Price GBX 940.50; 2023-09 · Price GBX 897.50; 2023-10 · Price GBX 868.50; 2023-11 · Price GBX 971.00; 2023-12 · Price GBX 1044.00; 2024-01 · Price GBX 1017.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-02 · Price GBX 960.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-03 · Price GBX 978.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-04 · Price GBX 928.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-05 · Price GBX 931.50 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-06 · Price GBX 892.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-07 · Price GBX 953.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-08 · Price GBX 957.50 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-09 · Price GBX 940.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-10 · Price GBX 875.50 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-11 · Price GBX 882.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2024-12 · Price GBX 806.50 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2025-01 · Price GBX 857.00 · Value 95.98 · Buy at or below 95.98; 2025-02 · Price GBX 835.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-03 · Price GBX 814.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-04 · Price GBX 860.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-05 · Price GBX 861.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-06 · Price GBX 847.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-07 · Price GBX 748.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-08 · Price GBX 698.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-09 · Price GBX 719.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-10 · Price GBX 567.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-11 · Price GBX 528.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2025-12 · Price GBX 559.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-01 · Price GBX 566.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-02 · Price GBX 504.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-03 · Price GBX 455.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-04 · Price GBX 463.80 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-05 · Price GBX 516.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-06 · Price GBX 508.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-07 · Price GBX 538.00 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-08 · Price GBX 510.50 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-09 · Price GBX 474.60 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-10 · Price GBX 442.80 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44; 2026-10 · Price GBX 442.80 · Value 50.44 · Buy at or below 50.44

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 45.05 – GBX 57.61
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 50.44
Discount to value	1 − 442.80 / 50.44 = -778.0%
Return / year	About 3.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 3.58/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 5.95/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 333M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP -156M

Owner earnings

Operating margin46.0%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -1.4B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares489M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025