# United Utilities Group (UU.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UU.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 1,483.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 489.14 per share, central GBX 561.08 per share, high GBX 616.16 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 561.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.8% at the stated quote. About 4.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.16×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.37×

- FY2018: 0.38×

- FY2019: 0.38×

- FY2020: 0.37×

- FY2021: 0.35×

- FY2022: 0.34×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- FY2026: 0.42×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 18.4pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 18.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 67.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 38.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.2%

- FY2018: 5.2%

- FY2019: 5.4%

- FY2020: 4.1%

- FY2021: 4.9%

- FY2022: 3.9%

- FY2023: 3.3%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 4.2%

- FY2026: 6.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.71×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 804M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 6.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.21×

- FY2023: -0.29×

- FY2024: 0.91×

- FY2025: 0.94×

- FY2026: 0.97×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.4% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.58 to 0.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -5.0%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.19

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.39

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.13

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 54M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 2.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.64

- FY2018: GBP 0.52

- FY2019: GBP 0.53

- FY2020: GBP 0.16

- FY2021: GBP 0.66

- FY2022: GBP -0.08

- FY2023: GBP 0.30

- FY2024: GBP 0.19

- FY2025: GBP 0.39

- FY2026: GBP 0.86

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.18×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.35×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.1%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -3.6%

- FY2020: -5.0%

- FY2021: -2.9%

- FY2022: -6.9%

- FY2023: -4.0%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -3.9%

- FY2026: -4.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 21% a year for ten years · sales +22%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.134Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 21% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +22%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.1B 

- FY2026: GBP 2.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 48.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 91.3% 

- FY2018: 91.5% 

- FY2019: 90.9% 

- FY2020: 48.9% 

- FY2021: 48.4% 

- FY2022: 47.5% 

- FY2023: 41.3% 

- FY2024: 85.1% 

- FY2025: 93.3% 

- FY2026: 48.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated water; annual sales are GBP 2.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2026: revenue 2616300000; grossProfit 1271200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UU.LSE: United Utilities Group PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It is also involved in the energy generation, corporate trustee, financing, and property management activities. The company operates approximately 122,000 kilometers of water and wastewater pipes. United Utilities Group PLC was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Warrington, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48.6% to 93.3% during 2024–26; it earns 4.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 85.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 93.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 48.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06167403878876543],[2018,0.05167266281303982],[2019,0.05416164071516775],[2020,0.04141852904946699],[2021,0.049292993897560373],[2022,0.03898310630778867],[2023,0.03327884530150109],[2024,0.03363186808941362],[2025,0.04237356321183493],[2026,0.06882358639794492]]; median 0.045833278554697654. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 6.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 672400000; owner earnings 126400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2018: growth capex 186269335.25681305; upkeep 512330664.74318695; owner earnings 219069335.25681305. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8502757131136184.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2019: growth capex 229100000; upkeep 393200000; owner earnings 363400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6304347826086957.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2020: growth capex 170000000; upkeep 482800000; owner earnings 95280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7842149454240135.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 610400000; owner earnings 253300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2024: growth capex 325300000; upkeep 438800000; owner earnings 115060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.827220580566661.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2025: growth capex 533100000; upkeep 464900000; owner earnings 248060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.1490768362492947.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2026: growth capex 991600000; upkeep 500500000; owner earnings 569100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7424002811456687.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); Incremental return on capital 0.06852900211990666, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,263100000],[2018,267000000],[2019,274400000],[2020,284500000],[2021,291900000],[2022,295500000],[2023,301200000],[2024,320000000],[2025,344100000],[2026,357600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 5800000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UU.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.052 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 21% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:13.040Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2931157864603876. Price 1483; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.266289424904249 → FY2026 0.8324812505211237. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 940.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 883.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 901.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 917.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 978.50 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 993.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 973.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,029.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 867.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 897.50 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 910.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 854.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 833.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 820.50 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 829.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 738.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 666.20 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 715.40 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 743.20 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 775.80 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 763.20 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 719.20 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 741.60 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 704.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 726.60 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 760.40 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 736.20 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 830.80 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 840.20 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 814.40 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 828.80 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 797.40 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 782.80 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 788.60 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 814.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 825.80 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 870.20 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 853.40 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 943.40 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,013.50 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 944.20 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 902.80 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 902.20 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 917.60 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 910.20 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 900.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 831.20 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 855.80 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 863.40 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 900.40 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 895.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 922.20 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 859.20 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 925.80 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 968.20 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 983.60 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 974.40 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,073.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,057.50 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 968.40 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,038.50 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 1,084.50 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 1,089.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,067.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,074.50 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,124.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,151.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,058.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,020.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,090.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,056.50 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 888.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 939.40 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,024.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 991.40 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,058.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,018.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,060.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,082.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,012.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 961.60 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 999.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 947.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 948.20 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,063.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 1,091.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,059.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,066.50 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,025.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,029.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 1,044.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 1,016.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 982.60 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 1,033.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,019.50 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 1,045.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 1,022.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 1,119.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 1,051.50 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 1,023.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 980.20 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,008.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,127.50 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 1,171.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,141.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 1,127.50 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 1,150.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 1,146.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 1,200.50 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 1,237.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 1,194.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 1,247.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 1,393.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 1,315.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 1,457.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 1,344.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 1,309.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 1,383.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 1,431.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 1,413.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 1,448.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 317.94 per share, central GBX 357.46 per share, high GBX 410.07 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 361.58 per share, central GBX 401.84 per share, high GBX 455.44 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 350.16 per share, central GBX 392.32 per share, high GBX 448.45 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 384.36 per share, central GBX 427.46 per share, high GBX 484.82 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 469.57 per share, central GBX 520.00 per share, high GBX 587.14 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 406.68 per share, central GBX 458.64 per share, high GBX 527.80 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 194.06 per share, central GBX 214.68 per share, high GBX 242.13 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 358.83 per share, central GBX 380.86 per share, high GBX 410.19 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 440.84 per share, central GBX 468.75 per share, high GBX 505.91 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 531.53 per share, central GBX 609.70 per share, high GBX 669.55 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:57.604Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

United Utilities Group

UU · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 1,483.00
Buy up to: GBX 561.08
Expected / yr: 4.8% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 16.4% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 36.1%
Worst year: 24.2%
Latest · 2026: 41.7%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 4.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 3.4% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 18.4 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 4.6%
Worst year: 3.3%
Latest · 2026: 6.9%

Each $1 of profit left $0.71 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned 6.9% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.71×
Annual median: 0.94×
Latest · 2026: 0.97×

Per-share value fell from 0.58 to 0.39, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.45
Worst year: GBP -0.08
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.86

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -4.4% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.9%
Worst year: -2.9%
Latest · 2026: -4.4%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 33.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.45 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 940.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 883.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 901.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 917.00 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-02 · Price GBX 978.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-03 · Price GBX 993.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-04 · Price GBX 973.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1029.00 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-06 · Price GBX 867.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-07 · Price GBX 897.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-08 · Price GBX 910.00 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-09 · Price GBX 854.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-10 · Price GBX 833.00 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-11 · Price GBX 820.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2017-12 · Price GBX 829.50 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2018-01 · Price GBX 738.00 · Value 357.46 · Buy at or below 357.46; 2018-02 · Price GBX 666.20 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-03 · Price GBX 715.40 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-04 · Price GBX 743.20 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-05 · Price GBX 775.80 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-06 · Price GBX 763.20 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-07 · Price GBX 719.20 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-08 · Price GBX 741.60 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-09 · Price GBX 704.00 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-10 · Price GBX 726.60 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-11 · Price GBX 760.40 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2018-12 · Price GBX 736.20 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2019-01 · Price GBX 830.80 · Value 401.84 · Buy at or below 401.84; 2019-02 · Price GBX 840.20 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-03 · Price GBX 814.40 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-04 · Price GBX 828.80 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-05 · Price GBX 797.40 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-06 · Price GBX 782.80 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-07 · Price GBX 788.60 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-08 · Price GBX 814.00 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-09 · Price GBX 825.80 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-10 · Price GBX 870.20 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-11 · Price GBX 853.40 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2019-12 · Price GBX 943.40 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1013.50 · Value 392.32 · Buy at or below 392.32; 2020-02 · Price GBX 944.20 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-03 · Price GBX 902.80 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-04 · Price GBX 902.20 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-05 · Price GBX 917.60 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-06 · Price GBX 910.20 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-07 · Price GBX 900.00 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-08 · Price GBX 831.20 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-09 · Price GBX 855.80 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-10 · Price GBX 863.40 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-11 · Price GBX 900.40 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2020-12 · Price GBX 895.00 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2021-01 · Price GBX 922.20 · Value 427.46 · Buy at or below 427.46; 2021-02 · Price GBX 859.20 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-03 · Price GBX 925.80 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-04 · Price GBX 968.20 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-05 · Price GBX 983.60 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-06 · Price GBX 974.40 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-07 · Price GBX 1073.00 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-08 · Price GBX 1057.50 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-09 · Price GBX 968.40 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-10 · Price GBX 1038.50 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-11 · Price GBX 1084.50 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2021-12 · Price GBX 1089.00 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2022-01 · Price GBX 1067.50 · Value 520.00 · Buy at or below 520.00; 2022-02 · Price GBX 1074.50 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-03 · Price GBX 1124.50 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-04 · Price GBX 1151.00 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-05 · Price GBX 1058.00 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-06 · Price GBX 1020.00 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-07 · Price GBX 1090.00 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-08 · Price GBX 1056.50 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-09 · Price GBX 888.80 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-10 · Price GBX 939.40 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-11 · Price GBX 1024.00 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2022-12 · Price GBX 991.40 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2023-01 · Price GBX 1058.00 · Value 458.64 · Buy at or below 458.64; 2023-02 · Price GBX 1018.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-03 · Price GBX 1060.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-04 · Price GBX 1082.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-05 · Price GBX 1012.50 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-06 · Price GBX 961.60 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-07 · Price GBX 999.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-08 · Price GBX 947.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-09 · Price GBX 948.20 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-10 · Price GBX 1063.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-11 · Price GBX 1091.00 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2023-12 · Price GBX 1059.50 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2024-01 · Price GBX 1066.50 · Value 214.68 · Buy at or below 214.68; 2024-02 · Price GBX 1025.00 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-03 · Price GBX 1029.00 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-04 · Price GBX 1044.50 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-05 · Price GBX 1016.00 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-06 · Price GBX 982.60 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-07 · Price GBX 1033.00 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-08 · Price GBX 1019.50 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-09 · Price GBX 1045.50 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-10 · Price GBX 1022.50 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-11 · Price GBX 1119.50 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2024-12 · Price GBX 1051.50 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2025-01 · Price GBX 1023.00 · Value 380.86 · Buy at or below 380.86; 2025-02 · Price GBX 980.20 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-03 · Price GBX 1008.50 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-04 · Price GBX 1127.50 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-05 · Price GBX 1171.00 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-06 · Price GBX 1141.50 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-07 · Price GBX 1127.50 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-08 · Price GBX 1150.00 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-09 · Price GBX 1146.50 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-10 · Price GBX 1200.50 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-11 · Price GBX 1237.00 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2025-12 · Price GBX 1194.00 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2026-01 · Price GBX 1247.00 · Value 468.75 · Buy at or below 468.75; 2026-02 · Price GBX 1393.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-03 · Price GBX 1315.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-04 · Price GBX 1457.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-05 · Price GBX 1344.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-06 · Price GBX 1309.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-07 · Price GBX 1383.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-08 · Price GBX 1431.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-09 · Price GBX 1413.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1448.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1483.00 · Value 609.70 · Buy at or below 609.70

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 489.14 – GBX 616.16
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 561.08
Discount to value	1 − 1483.00 / 561.08 = -164.3%
Return / year	About 4.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 20.79/share; 4.2% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 234.49/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 2.6B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 569M

Owner earnings

Operating margin41.7%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -9.7B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares684M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026