# Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VAC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:48.743Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $112.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $89.24 per share, central $101.08 per share, high $116.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value $101.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:48.743Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.3% at the stated quote. About 9.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.12×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 22.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 22.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.6%

- FY2017: 13.1%

- FY2018: 4.8%

- FY2019: 8.9%

- FY2020: -1.9%

- FY2021: 6.8%

- FY2022: 12.3%

- FY2023: 9.2%

- FY2024: 8.9%

- FY2025: 10.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.60×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $968M

- Net income, five-year total: $604M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 28.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -27.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 64.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 3.02×

- FY2022: 1.17×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.41×

- FY2025: 0.70×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.6% vs 9.2%

- Per-share earnings: 4.84 to 5.18 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Market cap gain: -$322M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $88M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.0%

- Per-share value change: $0.34

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.84

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $5.18

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.54

- Average buyback yield: 5.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $894M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.84

- FY2017: $8.48

- FY2018: $1.62

- FY2019: $3.10

- FY2020: -$6.66

- FY2021: $1.13

- FY2022: $8.65

- FY2023: $5.84

- FY2024: $5.18

- FY2025: -$8.83

### accounting: fail

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 135.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.84×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.1%

- FY2017: 3.2%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -3.1%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: 0.2%

- FY2024: 0.1%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Clifford Sosin](https://gigainvestors.com/CAS): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 34% since Dec 2021 · "Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC): Evaluating Valuation as Guest Volume Slides and Growth Initiatives Disappoint" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:47.216Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Marriott Vacations outlines $150M–$200M EBITDA benefit target through modernization initiatives ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4478850-marriott-vacations-outlines-150m-200m-ebitda-benefit-target-through-modernization-initiatives?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-07: Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC): Evaluating Valuation as Guest Volume Slides and Growth Initiatives Disappoint ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marriott-vacations-worldwide-vac-evaluating-125735969.html))

- 2025-11-05: Marriott Vacations (NYSE:VAC) Misses Q3 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops 12.4% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marriott-vacations-nyse-vac-misses-214911775.html))

- 2026-02-26: Marriott Vacations targets $755M–$780M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 as leadership drives operational transformation ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4558347-marriott-vacations-targets-755m-780m-adjusted-ebitda-in-2026-as-leadership-drives-operational?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-06-06: Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Is Up 5.4% After Raising 2026 Guidance Amid Restructuring Efforts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/marriott-vacations-worldwide-vac-5-111134632.html))

- 2026-08-10: VAC Q2 Deep Dive: Commercial Strategy and Owner Engagement Drive Margin Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vac-q2-deep-dive-commercial-050922239.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1524358/000152435826000010/vac-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: $1.8B 

- FY2017: $2.2B 

- FY2018: $3.0B 

- FY2019: $4.3B 

- FY2020: $2.9B 

- FY2021: $3.9B 

- FY2022: $4.7B 

- FY2023: $4.7B 

- FY2024: $5.0B 

- FY2025: $5.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1524358/000152435826000010/vac-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2016: 39.0% 

- FY2017: 35.0% 

- FY2018: 37.1% 

- FY2019: 39.2% 

- FY2020: 24.1% 

- FY2021: 37.4% 

- FY2022: 42.6% 

- FY2023: 38.5% 

- FY2024: 37.3% 

- FY2025: 15.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in resorts & casinos; annual sales are USD 5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1524358/000152435826000010/vac-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 5032000000; grossProfit 760000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VAC.US: Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, engages in vacation ownership, exchange, rental, and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. It develops, markets, sells, finances, rents, and manages vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Vacation Club, and Ritz-Carlton Club brands; and holds non-exclusive right to develop, market, and sell whole ownership residential products under the Ritz-Carlton Residences brand name, as well as has a license to use the St. Regis brand for specified fractional ownership products. The company also offers exchange network and membership programs, as well as management services to other resorts and lodging properties through its Interval International and Aqua-Aston businesses. In addition, it provides financing for consumer purchases of vacation ownership products; and renting vacation ownership inventory. The company sells its upper upscale tier vacation ownership products under its brands primarily through a network of resort-based sales centers and certain off-site sales locations. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.1% to 38.5% during 2023–25; it earns 8.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 38.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1524358/000152435826000010/vac-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08603274132108821],[2017,0.13127300998703081],[2018,0.04821090047393365],[2019,0.0894364479141254],[2020,-0.019133476856835308],[2021,0.06802667269439422],[2022,0.12303345146048111],[2023,0.09167467563671312],[2024,0.08911215914499653],[2025,0.10793094944512947]]; median 0.08927430352956096. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 61 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 34770000; owner earnings 123578000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 5000000; upkeep 21000000; owner earnings 235000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02127659574468085.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 40000000; owner earnings 77000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 46000000; owner earnings 233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 47000000; owner earnings 148000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 65000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 458000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 118000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 271000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 57000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 307000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,34195000],[2017,38000000],[2018,51000000],[2019,81000000],[2020,45000000],[2021,23000000],[2022,99000000],[2023,106000000],[2024,107000000],[2025,110000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1524358/000152435826000010/vac-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 61000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 20% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VAC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 19.999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.019386434918639152. Price 112.3; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $63.58 per share

- 2016-11: $77.64 per share

- 2016-12: $84.85 per share

- 2017-01: $86.48 per share

- 2017-02: $93.93 per share

- 2017-03: $99.93 per share

- 2017-04: $110.18 per share

- 2017-05: $116.52 per share

- 2017-06: $117.75 per share

- 2017-07: $116.85 per share

- 2017-08: $116.36 per share

- 2017-09: $124.53 per share

- 2017-10: $131.62 per share

- 2017-11: $134.25 per share

- 2017-12: $135.21 per share

- 2018-01: $152.33 per share

- 2018-02: $140.50 per share

- 2018-03: $133.20 per share

- 2018-04: $122.61 per share

- 2018-05: $120.24 per share

- 2018-06: $112.96 per share

- 2018-07: $119.11 per share

- 2018-08: $119.00 per share

- 2018-09: $111.75 per share

- 2018-10: $88.49 per share

- 2018-11: $81.20 per share

- 2018-12: $70.51 per share

- 2019-01: $88.54 per share

- 2019-02: $97.34 per share

- 2019-03: $93.50 per share

- 2019-04: $105.63 per share

- 2019-05: $89.90 per share

- 2019-06: $96.40 per share

- 2019-07: $102.23 per share

- 2019-08: $98.59 per share

- 2019-09: $103.61 per share

- 2019-10: $109.93 per share

- 2019-11: $122.84 per share

- 2019-12: $128.76 per share

- 2020-01: $120.24 per share

- 2020-02: $96.78 per share

- 2020-03: $55.58 per share

- 2020-04: $83.00 per share

- 2020-05: $89.83 per share

- 2020-06: $82.21 per share

- 2020-07: $84.66 per share

- 2020-08: $94.67 per share

- 2020-09: $90.81 per share

- 2020-10: $96.60 per share

- 2020-11: $127.33 per share

- 2020-12: $137.22 per share

- 2021-01: $122.76 per share

- 2021-02: $169.71 per share

- 2021-03: $174.18 per share

- 2021-04: $177.63 per share

- 2021-05: $172.29 per share

- 2021-06: $159.30 per share

- 2021-07: $147.37 per share

- 2021-08: $149.55 per share

- 2021-09: $157.33 per share

- 2021-10: $157.22 per share

- 2021-11: $152.65 per share

- 2021-12: $168.98 per share

- 2022-01: $162.38 per share

- 2022-02: $160.67 per share

- 2022-03: $157.70 per share

- 2022-04: $149.33 per share

- 2022-05: $147.72 per share

- 2022-06: $116.20 per share

- 2022-07: $136.92 per share

- 2022-08: $142.42 per share

- 2022-09: $121.86 per share

- 2022-10: $147.76 per share

- 2022-11: $148.98 per share

- 2022-12: $134.59 per share

- 2023-01: $160.04 per share

- 2023-02: $152.99 per share

- 2023-03: $134.86 per share

- 2023-04: $134.56 per share

- 2023-05: $123.22 per share

- 2023-06: $122.72 per share

- 2023-07: $128.51 per share

- 2023-08: $108.69 per share

- 2023-09: $100.63 per share

- 2023-10: $89.86 per share

- 2023-11: $72.90 per share

- 2023-12: $84.89 per share

- 2024-01: $83.89 per share

- 2024-02: $93.19 per share

- 2024-03: $107.73 per share

- 2024-04: $96.11 per share

- 2024-05: $90.27 per share

- 2024-06: $87.32 per share

- 2024-07: $84.58 per share

- 2024-08: $74.00 per share

- 2024-09: $73.48 per share

- 2024-10: $77.03 per share

- 2024-11: $99.25 per share

- 2024-12: $89.80 per share

- 2025-01: $86.77 per share

- 2025-02: $75.44 per share

- 2025-03: $64.24 per share

- 2025-04: $54.81 per share

- 2025-05: $65.86 per share

- 2025-06: $72.31 per share

- 2025-07: $74.47 per share

- 2025-08: $78.15 per share

- 2025-09: $66.56 per share

- 2025-10: $65.98 per share

- 2025-11: $54.60 per share

- 2025-12: $57.69 per share

- 2026-01: $54.31 per share

- 2026-02: $65.01 per share

- 2026-03: $65.12 per share

- 2026-04: $72.01 per share

- 2026-05: $84.88 per share

- 2026-06: $101.88 per share

- 2026-07: $97.51 per share

- 2026-08: $104.26 per share

- 2026-09: $102.28 per share

- 2026-10: $112.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $53.08 per share, central $58.84 per share, high $66.51 per share

- FY2021: low $43.46 per share, central $48.61 per share, high $55.47 per share

- FY2022: low $52.37 per share, central $58.28 per share, high $66.14 per share

- FY2023: low $68.51 per share, central $77.47 per share, high $89.39 per share

- FY2024: low $76.25 per share, central $86.44 per share, high $100.01 per share

- FY2025: low $108.47 per share, central $120.93 per share, high $137.51 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1524358/000152435826000010/vac-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.