# Vale (VALE3.SA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VALE3.SA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:52.390Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: BRL. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: BRL 66.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low BRL 38.64 per share, central BRL 40.87 per share, high BRL 43.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value BRL 40.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:52.390Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.9% at the stated quote. About 10.9% a year at today's price (required return 17.0%). required return 17.0% a year (BR 10-year bond 13.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.32×

- FY2021: 0.51×

- FY2022: 0.39×

- FY2023: 0.34×

- FY2024: 0.28×

- FY2025: 0.29×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 34.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.7%

- FY2017: 8.4%

- FY2018: 12.9%

- FY2019: 3.6%

- FY2020: 12.4%

- FY2021: 25.7%

- FY2022: 15.9%

- FY2023: 20.9%

- FY2024: 22.4%

- FY2025: 16.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $47B

- Net income, five-year total: $58B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 71.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 0.86×

- FY2023: 0.58×

- FY2024: 0.55×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.4% vs 20.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.77 to 1.44 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.6%

- Market cap gain: $34B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $24B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.1%

- Per-share value change: $0.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.44

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.49

- Average buyback yield: 4.0%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $7.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $77B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.77

- FY2017: $1.07

- FY2018: $1.32

- FY2019: -$0.32

- FY2020: $0.95

- FY2021: $4.66

- FY2022: $3.90

- FY2023: $1.84

- FY2024: $1.44

- FY2025: $0.59

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.65×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.27×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.4%

- FY2017: -7.0%

- FY2018: -6.8%

- FY2019: -15.0%

- FY2020: -10.3%

- FY2021: -3.6%

- FY2022: 8.4%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: -2.5%

- FY2025: -7.7%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 31% since Mar 2022 · "VALE Q1 Revenue Slides, Profit Dips On Lower Iron Ore Prices" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2025) · sales +2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.059Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-25: VALE Q1 Revenue Slides, Profit Dips On Lower Iron Ore Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vale-q1-revenue-slides-profit-122936195.html))

- 2025-07-02: Vale lowers forecast for 2025 iron ore agglomerates output ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vale-lowers-forecast-2025-iron-112252422.html))

- 2025-08-02: Vale SA (VALE) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Production Gains Amid Cost Reductions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vale-sa-vale-q2-2025-071158653.html))

- 2025-11-10: Vale gearing up to meet Indian demand as China steel output stagnates, CEO says ([sg.finance.yahoo.com](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/vale-gearing-meet-indian-demand-130949990.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +2.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000129281426001844/valeform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-03-27.

- FY2016: $27B 

- FY2017: $34B 

- FY2018: $37B 

- FY2019: $37B 

- FY2020: $40B 

- FY2021: $55B 

- FY2022: $44B 

- FY2023: $42B 

- FY2024: $38B 

- FY2025: $39B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 34.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000129281426001844/valeform20f_2025.htm; observed 2026-03-27.

- FY2016: 35.8% 

- FY2017: 38.1% 

- FY2018: 39.6% 

- FY2019: 47.2% 

- FY2020: 55.6% 

- FY2021: 60.1% 

- FY2022: 45.2% 

- FY2023: 42.3% 

- FY2024: 36.2% 

- FY2025: 34.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 38.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000129281426001844/valeform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: revenue 38895650000; grossProfit 13367051000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 34.4% to 42.3% during 2023–25; it earns 14.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 42.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000129281426001844/valeform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.037011804194253685],[2017,0.08439933348067792],[2018,0.12897493076888952],[2019,0.036302040598270545],[2020,0.12440445408600026],[2021,0.25663159832747096],[2022,0.1586952596486943],[2023,0.20927883492363963],[2024,0.2236926357970184],[2025,0.16643237096564067]]; median 0.1438350952087919. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 71.2% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2016: growth capex 1464000000; upkeep 3487000000; owner earnings 3982000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3676544450025113.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2017: growth capex 123000000; upkeep 3708000000; owner earnings 5507000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022335209733067005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2018: growth capex 433000000; upkeep 3351000000; owner earnings 6860000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0631195335276968.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2020: growth capex 1215000000; upkeep 3215000000; owner earnings 4547600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2671738939220688.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2021: growth capex 1999000000; upkeep 3034000000; owner earnings 22124600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09035191596684233.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5446000000; owner earnings 16206800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6129708000; owner earnings 4632892000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5661307000; owner earnings 3419093000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000129281426001844/valeform20f_2025.htm (filed 2026-03-27); FY2025: growth capex 860999033.4772329; upkeep 5219319966.522767; owner earnings 251571033.47723293. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.4224887562627635.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Incremental return on capital 0.7118936284545253, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,250000000],[2017,1456000000],[2018,3313000000],[2019,695071000],[2020,3350000000],[2021,13483000000],[2022,6603000000],[2023,5513000000],[2024,3340879000],[2025,3636719000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 6.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VALE3.SA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 6.454 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11557664395755995. Price 66.42; FX 5.098399102681758; discount 0.1695; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -3.2064423799936934 → FY2025 0.05893276807206727. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (BRL per share)

- 2016-10: BRL 22.08 per share

- 2016-11: BRL 28.06 per share

- 2016-12: BRL 25.68 per share

- 2017-01: BRL 32.18 per share

- 2017-02: BRL 32.72 per share

- 2017-03: BRL 29.79 per share

- 2017-04: BRL 27.47 per share

- 2017-05: BRL 27.17 per share

- 2017-06: BRL 29.00 per share

- 2017-07: BRL 31.30 per share

- 2017-08: BRL 35.08 per share

- 2017-09: BRL 31.87 per share

- 2017-10: BRL 32.10 per share

- 2017-11: BRL 35.14 per share

- 2017-12: BRL 40.26 per share

- 2018-01: BRL 41.45 per share

- 2018-02: BRL 45.05 per share

- 2018-03: BRL 42.21 per share

- 2018-04: BRL 48.67 per share

- 2018-05: BRL 50.63 per share

- 2018-06: BRL 49.59 per share

- 2018-07: BRL 54.84 per share

- 2018-08: BRL 53.62 per share

- 2018-09: BRL 59.82 per share

- 2018-10: BRL 56.71 per share

- 2018-11: BRL 52.80 per share

- 2018-12: BRL 51.00 per share

- 2019-01: BRL 45.50 per share

- 2019-02: BRL 47.10 per share

- 2019-03: BRL 50.93 per share

- 2019-04: BRL 50.10 per share

- 2019-05: BRL 49.00 per share

- 2019-06: BRL 51.82 per share

- 2019-07: BRL 49.81 per share

- 2019-08: BRL 45.57 per share

- 2019-09: BRL 47.75 per share

- 2019-10: BRL 47.20 per share

- 2019-11: BRL 49.98 per share

- 2019-12: BRL 53.30 per share

- 2020-01: BRL 50.27 per share

- 2020-02: BRL 44.31 per share

- 2020-03: BRL 43.22 per share

- 2020-04: BRL 44.86 per share

- 2020-05: BRL 53.00 per share

- 2020-06: BRL 55.92 per share

- 2020-07: BRL 60.71 per share

- 2020-08: BRL 59.68 per share

- 2020-09: BRL 59.11 per share

- 2020-10: BRL 60.55 per share

- 2020-11: BRL 78.00 per share

- 2020-12: BRL 87.45 per share

- 2021-01: BRL 87.95 per share

- 2021-02: BRL 94.52 per share

- 2021-03: BRL 97.97 per share

- 2021-04: BRL 109.02 per share

- 2021-05: BRL 114.78 per share

- 2021-06: BRL 113.25 per share

- 2021-07: BRL 108.76 per share

- 2021-08: BRL 98.68 per share

- 2021-09: BRL 76.24 per share

- 2021-10: BRL 71.61 per share

- 2021-11: BRL 69.95 per share

- 2021-12: BRL 77.96 per share

- 2022-01: BRL 80.87 per share

- 2022-02: BRL 92.28 per share

- 2022-03: BRL 95.60 per share

- 2022-04: BRL 83.29 per share

- 2022-05: BRL 86.21 per share

- 2022-06: BRL 76.56 per share

- 2022-07: BRL 69.75 per share

- 2022-08: BRL 64.50 per share

- 2022-09: BRL 72.04 per share

- 2022-10: BRL 67.13 per share

- 2022-11: BRL 85.71 per share

- 2022-12: BRL 88.88 per share

- 2023-01: BRL 94.51 per share

- 2023-02: BRL 85.32 per share

- 2023-03: BRL 80.29 per share

- 2023-04: BRL 72.40 per share

- 2023-05: BRL 63.81 per share

- 2023-06: BRL 64.22 per share

- 2023-07: BRL 69.16 per share

- 2023-08: BRL 65.08 per share

- 2023-09: BRL 67.58 per share

- 2023-10: BRL 69.00 per share

- 2023-11: BRL 73.85 per share

- 2023-12: BRL 77.20 per share

- 2024-01: BRL 67.76 per share

- 2024-02: BRL 66.99 per share

- 2024-03: BRL 60.83 per share

- 2024-04: BRL 63.29 per share

- 2024-05: BRL 63.20 per share

- 2024-06: BRL 62.22 per share

- 2024-07: BRL 61.63 per share

- 2024-08: BRL 59.58 per share

- 2024-09: BRL 63.51 per share

- 2024-10: BRL 62.06 per share

- 2024-11: BRL 58.78 per share

- 2024-12: BRL 54.55 per share

- 2025-01: BRL 54.17 per share

- 2025-02: BRL 55.15 per share

- 2025-03: BRL 56.70 per share

- 2025-04: BRL 52.86 per share

- 2025-05: BRL 52.10 per share

- 2025-06: BRL 52.65 per share

- 2025-07: BRL 53.46 per share

- 2025-08: BRL 55.56 per share

- 2025-09: BRL 57.58 per share

- 2025-10: BRL 65.26 per share

- 2025-11: BRL 67.40 per share

- 2025-12: BRL 71.96 per share

- 2026-01: BRL 84.32 per share

- 2026-02: BRL 88.47 per share

- 2026-03: BRL 82.48 per share

- 2026-04: BRL 81.18 per share

- 2026-05: BRL 82.82 per share

- 2026-06: BRL 77.88 per share

- 2026-07: BRL 76.28 per share

- 2026-08: BRL 77.85 per share

- 2026-09: BRL 69.91 per share

- 2026-10: BRL 67.16 per share

## Annual estimated value (BRL per share)

- FY2018: low BRL 36.23 per share, central BRL 38.37 per share, high BRL 40.83 per share

- FY2019: low BRL 38.38 per share, central BRL 40.51 per share, high BRL 42.95 per share

- FY2020: low BRL 47.52 per share, central BRL 49.86 per share, high BRL 52.55 per share

- FY2021: low BRL 67.60 per share, central BRL 71.44 per share, high BRL 75.86 per share

- FY2022: low BRL 56.46 per share, central BRL 60.10 per share, high BRL 64.23 per share

- FY2023: low BRL 37.58 per share, central BRL 40.29 per share, high BRL 43.04 per share

- FY2024: low BRL 36.41 per share, central BRL 38.55 per share, high BRL 41.02 per share

- FY2025: low BRL 39.01 per share, central BRL 41.12 per share, high BRL 43.56 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/917851/000129281426001844/valeform20f_2025.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.