# Victrex (VCT.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VCT.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:41.503Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 935.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 545.37 per share, central GBX 616.49 per share, high GBX 711.16 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 616.49 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:41.503Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.40×

- FY2017: 0.39×

- FY2018: 0.39×

- FY2019: 0.38×

- FY2020: 0.29×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 44.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 26.5%

- FY2017: 29.5%

- FY2018: 33.2%

- FY2019: 26.3%

- FY2020: 16.5%

- FY2021: 18.5%

- FY2022: 17.4%

- FY2023: 12.3%

- FY2024: 6.6%

- FY2025: 6.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 223M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 256M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -45.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 12.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 46.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.69×

- FY2024: 0.34×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.5% vs 6.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.98 to 0.32 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -53M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -13.2%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.98

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 24M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 695M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.97

- FY2017: GBP 1.16

- FY2018: GBP 1.28

- FY2019: GBP 1.07

- FY2020: GBP 0.63

- FY2021: GBP 0.84

- FY2022: GBP 0.88

- FY2023: GBP 0.71

- FY2024: GBP 0.20

- FY2025: GBP 0.32

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.56×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.2%

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: 2.3%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -8.8%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: 3.2%

- FY2024: -11.3%

- FY2025: -7.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 62% since Dec 2021 · sales +0.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.798Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30/reports/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-01-08.

- FY2016: GBP 252M 

- FY2017: GBP 290M 

- FY2018: GBP 326M 

- FY2019: GBP 294M 

- FY2020: GBP 266M 

- FY2021: GBP 306M 

- FY2022: GBP 341M 

- FY2023: GBP 307M 

- FY2024: GBP 296M 

- FY2025: GBP 296M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 44.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30/reports/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-01-08.

- FY2016: 62.9% 

- FY2017: 63.3% 

- FY2018: 63.8% 

- FY2019: 62.0% 

- FY2020: 53.0% 

- FY2021: 51.3% 

- FY2022: 51.2% 

- FY2023: 53.0% 

- FY2024: 45.3% 

- FY2025: 44.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are GBP 296.4 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2025: revenue 296400000; grossProfit 132600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VCT.LSE: Victrex plc, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of polymer solutions worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Sustainable Solutions and Medical. It develops PEEK and PAEK based polymer solutions, and semi-finished and finished parts. The company also provides specialist solutions for medical device manufacturers; and sells thermoplastic polymers; sustainable solutions for energy and industrial, VAR, aerospace, automotive, and electronics markets, as well as engages in trading activities. It serves automotive, aerospace, energy and industrial, electronics, and medical markets. Victrex plc was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Thornton-Cleveleys, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 44.7% to 53% during 2023–25; it earns 17.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2023-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 53%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2024-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 44.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.2645541359329796],[2017,0.29471637335009426],[2018,0.33236572890025573],[2019,0.26275339421042765],[2020,0.16457783433886375],[2021,0.18450884619559318],[2022,0.1740262940076145],[2023,0.12283399584611364],[2024,0.06610685405041969],[2025,0.06603630257476412]]; median 0.17926757010160382. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 51% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30/reports/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-01-08); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5125693764283382],[2022,0.512316715542522],[2023,0.529641693811075]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2016-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 25900000; owner earnings 72200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2017-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 16700000; owner earnings 100400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2018-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 9900000; owner earnings 118700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2019-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 22700000; owner earnings 87100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2020-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 24900000; owner earnings 48580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2021-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2021: growth capex 20000000; upkeep 21900000; owner earnings 71200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2808988764044944.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2022-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2022: growth capex 23900000; upkeep 21600000; owner earnings 74280000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3217555196553581.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2023-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 38500000; owner earnings 42600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2024-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 32600000; owner earnings 5800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/VCT.LSE.json#2025-09-30 (filed 2026-01-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 21800000; owner earnings 29120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,39900000],[2017,40400000],[2018,105600000],[2019,122400000],[2020,39900000],[2021,51600000],[2022,95200000],[2023,51800000],[2024,51800000],[2025,51800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VCT.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.878 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 7.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0778021355961166. Price 935; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.7422258119137597 → FY2025 0.3316122596323568. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 1,751.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,715.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,931.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,900.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 1,911.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,900.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,916.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,931.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,876.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,971.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 2,037.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 2,371.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 2,398.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 2,404.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 2,638.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 2,552.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 2,592.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 2,568.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 2,622.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 2,824.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 2,914.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 3,154.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 3,168.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 3,340.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 2,652.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 2,450.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 2,288.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 2,286.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 2,346.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,156.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,432.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,987.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,164.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,040.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,078.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,158.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 2,196.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,300.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,494.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 2,216.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,096.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,970.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,996.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,038.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,955.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,874.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,932.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,831.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,845.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,992.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,346.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,344.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,116.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,210.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,348.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,416.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,546.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,650.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 2,650.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,382.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,288.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,300.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,444.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,042.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,948.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,830.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,828.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,751.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,779.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,928.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,750.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,670.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,653.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,776.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,597.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,839.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,753.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,593.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,676.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,549.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,392.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 1,544.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 1,502.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 1,405.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,377.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 1,463.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,522.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,363.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,230.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,299.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 1,266.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 1,288.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 1,146.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 1,100.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,030.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 972.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 852.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 863.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 1,076.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 992.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 924.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 884.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 831.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 786.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 776.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 687.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 714.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 720.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 647.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 632.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 655.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 656.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 707.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 570.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 603.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 640.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 575.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 783.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 841.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 923.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 935.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 1,004.84 per share, central GBX 1,363.82 per share, high GBX 1,587.74 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 1,224.13 per share, central GBX 1,672.57 per share, high GBX 1,940.44 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,588.93 per share, central GBX 2,060.74 per share, high GBX 2,386.11 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,446.68 per share, central GBX 2,033.46 per share, high GBX 2,375.14 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,072.89 per share, central GBX 1,210.03 per share, high GBX 1,392.59 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 1,257.37 per share, central GBX 1,413.96 per share, high GBX 1,622.41 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 1,081.72 per share, central GBX 1,239.55 per share, high GBX 1,429.20 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 872.19 per share, central GBX 988.11 per share, high GBX 1,142.42 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 704.42 per share, central GBX 797.85 per share, high GBX 922.22 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 532.75 per share, central GBX 603.33 per share, high GBX 697.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:49:32.606Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67/2025-09-30/ESEF/GB/0/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30/reports/213800UYNPHAUNHPXL67-2025-09-30-T01.xhtml); period 2025-09-30, filed 2026-01-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Victrex

VCT · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 935.00
Buy up to: GBX 616.49
Expected / yr: 7.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 31.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 29.6%
Worst year: 13.4%
Latest · 2025: 13.4%

The second-worst year 6.6% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 8.3 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 17.9%
Worst year: 6.6%
Latest · 2025: 6.6%

New investment earned -45.8% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 12.8% of sales (limit 10%) to 46.7% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.87×
Annual median: 0.97×
Latest · 2025: 1.05×

Per-share value fell from 0.98 to 0.32, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.86
Worst year: GBP 0.20
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.32

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -7.6% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.0%
Worst year: 3.2%
Latest · 2025: -7.6%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 29.4%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.3 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 1751.00 · Value 1363.82 · Buy at or below 1363.82; 2016-11 · Price GBX 1715.00 · Value 1363.82 · Buy at or below 1363.82; 2016-12 · Price GBX 1931.00 · Value 1363.82 · Buy at or below 1363.82; 2017-01 · Price GBX 1900.00 · Value 1363.82 · Buy at or below 1363.82; 2017-02 · Price GBX 1911.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-03 · Price GBX 1900.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-04 · Price GBX 1916.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1931.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-06 · Price GBX 1876.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-07 · Price GBX 1971.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-08 · Price GBX 2037.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-09 · Price GBX 2371.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-10 · Price GBX 2398.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-11 · Price GBX 2404.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2017-12 · Price GBX 2638.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2018-01 · Price GBX 2552.00 · Value 1672.57 · Buy at or below 1672.57; 2018-02 · Price GBX 2592.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-03 · Price GBX 2568.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-04 · Price GBX 2622.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-05 · Price GBX 2824.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-06 · Price GBX 2914.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-07 · Price GBX 3154.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-08 · Price GBX 3168.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-09 · Price GBX 3340.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-10 · Price GBX 2652.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-11 · Price GBX 2450.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2018-12 · Price GBX 2288.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2019-01 · Price GBX 2286.00 · Value 2060.74 · Buy at or below 2060.74; 2019-02 · Price GBX 2346.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-03 · Price GBX 2156.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-04 · Price GBX 2432.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-05 · Price GBX 1987.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-06 · Price GBX 2164.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-07 · Price GBX 2040.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-08 · Price GBX 2078.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-09 · Price GBX 2158.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-10 · Price GBX 2196.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-11 · Price GBX 2300.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2019-12 · Price GBX 2494.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2020-01 · Price GBX 2216.00 · Value 2033.46 · Buy at or below 2033.46; 2020-02 · Price GBX 2096.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-03 · Price GBX 1970.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-04 · Price GBX 1996.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-05 · Price GBX 2038.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-06 · Price GBX 1955.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-07 · Price GBX 1874.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-08 · Price GBX 1932.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-09 · Price GBX 1831.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-10 · Price GBX 1845.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-11 · Price GBX 1992.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2020-12 · Price GBX 2346.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2021-01 · Price GBX 2344.00 · Value 1210.03 · Buy at or below 1210.03; 2021-02 · Price GBX 2116.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-03 · Price GBX 2210.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2348.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2416.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2546.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-07 · Price GBX 2650.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-08 · Price GBX 2650.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-09 · Price GBX 2382.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-10 · Price GBX 2288.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-11 · Price GBX 2300.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2021-12 · Price GBX 2444.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2022-01 · Price GBX 2042.00 · Value 1413.96 · Buy at or below 1413.96; 2022-02 · Price GBX 1948.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-03 · Price GBX 1830.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-04 · Price GBX 1828.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-05 · Price GBX 1751.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-06 · Price GBX 1779.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-07 · Price GBX 1928.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-08 · Price GBX 1750.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-09 · Price GBX 1670.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-10 · Price GBX 1653.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-11 · Price GBX 1776.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2022-12 · Price GBX 1597.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2023-01 · Price GBX 1839.00 · Value 1239.55 · Buy at or below 1239.55; 2023-02 · Price GBX 1753.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-03 · Price GBX 1593.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-04 · Price GBX 1676.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-05 · Price GBX 1549.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-06 · Price GBX 1392.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-07 · Price GBX 1544.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-08 · Price GBX 1502.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-09 · Price GBX 1405.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-10 · Price GBX 1377.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-11 · Price GBX 1463.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2023-12 · Price GBX 1522.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2024-01 · Price GBX 1363.00 · Value 988.11 · Buy at or below 988.11; 2024-02 · Price GBX 1230.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-03 · Price GBX 1299.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-04 · Price GBX 1266.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-05 · Price GBX 1288.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-06 · Price GBX 1146.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-07 · Price GBX 1100.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-08 · Price GBX 1030.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-09 · Price GBX 972.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-10 · Price GBX 852.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-11 · Price GBX 863.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2024-12 · Price GBX 1076.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2025-01 · Price GBX 992.00 · Value 797.85 · Buy at or below 797.85; 2025-02 · Price GBX 924.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-03 · Price GBX 884.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-04 · Price GBX 831.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-05 · Price GBX 786.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-06 · Price GBX 776.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-07 · Price GBX 687.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-08 · Price GBX 714.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-09 · Price GBX 720.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-10 · Price GBX 647.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-11 · Price GBX 632.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2025-12 · Price GBX 655.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2026-01 · Price GBX 656.00 · Value 603.33 · Buy at or below 603.33; 2026-02 · Price GBX 707.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-03 · Price GBX 570.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-04 · Price GBX 603.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-05 · Price GBX 640.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-06 · Price GBX 575.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-07 · Price GBX 783.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-08 · Price GBX 841.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-09 · Price GBX 923.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-10 · Price GBX 935.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49; 2026-10 · Price GBX 935.00 · Value 616.49 · Buy at or below 616.49

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 545.37 – GBX 711.16
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 616.49
Discount to value	1 − 935.00 / 616.49 = -51.7%
Return / year	About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 47.19/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 29.57/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 296M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 29M

Owner earnings

Operating margin13.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -25M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares88M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·