# Victory Capital Holdings (VCTR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VCTR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:50.198Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $109.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $89.19 per share, central $101.40 per share, high $117.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value $101.40 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:50.198Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.5% at the stated quote. About 9.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.28×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.41×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.47×

- FY2023: 0.40×

- FY2024: 0.48×

- FY2025: 0.42×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.47×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.2%

- FY2017: 14.5%

- FY2018: 22.1%

- FY2019: 12.4%

- FY2020: 22.7%

- FY2021: 29.5%

- FY2022: 31.3%

- FY2023: 27.1%

- FY2024: 33.8%

- FY2025: 20.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.13×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -16.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.14×

- FY2023: 1.17×

- FY2024: 1.10×

- FY2025: 1.21×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.5% vs 27.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.08 to 4.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Market cap gain: $3.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 65.2%

- Per-share value change: $4.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.08

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 27.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.12

- FY2017: $0.43

- FY2018: $0.90

- FY2019: $1.26

- FY2020: $2.88

- FY2021: $3.75

- FY2022: $3.81

- FY2023: $3.12

- FY2024: $4.38

- FY2025: $4.97

### accounting: fail

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.21×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 56.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.73×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.53×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.4%

- FY2017: -8.9%

- FY2018: -8.8%

- FY2019: -7.7%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: -3.8%

- FY2022: -2.3%

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -2.0%

- FY2025: 2.1%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years · "Net Expense Synergies Achieved: $70 million on a run rate basis." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +19.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:47.528Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-11: Moody's changes Victory Capital's outlook to positive on Amundi deal ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/moodys-changes-victory-capitals-outlook-to-positive-on-amundi-deal-93CH-4132517))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +19.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $410M 

- FY2018: $413M 

- FY2019: $612M 

- FY2020: $775M 

- FY2021: $890M 

- FY2022: $855M 

- FY2023: $821M 

- FY2024: $893M 

- FY2025: $1.3B 

- FY2026: $1.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 71.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 32.8% 

- FY2017: 39.6% 

- FY2018: 41.8% 

- FY2019: 46.7% 

- FY2020: 51.9% 

- FY2021: 53.8% 

- FY2022: 53.3% 

- FY2023: 55.5% 

- FY2024: 59.3% 

- FY2025: 71.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are USD 1.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm#000119312526077057 (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 1306131000; grossProfit 928438000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VCTR.US: Victory Capital Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset management company in the United States and internationally. It offers specialized investment strategies to institutions, intermediaries, retirement platforms, and individual investors. The company also provides various investment products, including actively and passively managed mutual funds, rules-based and active exchange traded funds (ETF), institutional separate accounts, variable insurance products, alternative investments, private closed end funds, and a 529 education savings plan; and third-party investment products, such as mutual funds, third-party ETF model strategies, retail separately managed accounts, unified managed accounts, collective investment trusts, undertakings for the collective investment in transferable securities, and other pooled vehicles. In addition, it offers investment management services, fund administration services, fund transfer agent services, and fund distribution services. Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in San Antonio, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.5% to 71.1% during 2023–25; it earns 22.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 55.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 71.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.022189509306260576],[2017,0.14511036716645914],[2018,0.22131923960586614],[2019,0.1237133599598653],[2020,0.22673033017602862],[2021,0.2948901892420193],[2022,0.3128402746439443],[2023,0.2708404755261698],[2024,0.3382030132510946],[2025,0.2094658802273957]]; median 0.22402478489094738. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 144.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1164000; cash acquisitions 204413000; owner earnings 23170000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 8.822313336210618.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 5105000; owner earnings 50631000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2546000; owner earnings 84435000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 5239000; cash acquisitions 851276000; owner earnings 111125000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 7.6605264341957255.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8059000; owner earnings 220844000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 12674000; cash acquisitions 539240000; owner earnings 284555000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.8950290804941048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5245000; cash acquisitions 880000; owner earnings 313467000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0028073130504965437.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5169000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 249635000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1278000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 317762000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3558000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 399355000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,627000],[2017,135171000],[2018,831000],[2019,7436000],[2020,16236000],[2021,37159000],[2022,69200000],[2023,85427000],[2024,101116000],[2025,125472000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 144925000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VCTR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.219999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 25.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.01345314529529229. Price 109.3; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.606415956930431 → FY2025 6.016557189345547. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-02: $12.95 per share

- 2018-03: $12.30 per share

- 2018-04: $11.06 per share

- 2018-05: $11.20 per share

- 2018-06: $10.58 per share

- 2018-07: $10.35 per share

- 2018-08: $9.88 per share

- 2018-09: $9.54 per share

- 2018-10: $7.80 per share

- 2018-11: $12.25 per share

- 2018-12: $10.22 per share

- 2019-01: $10.90 per share

- 2019-02: $12.59 per share

- 2019-03: $15.02 per share

- 2019-04: $16.49 per share

- 2019-05: $16.43 per share

- 2019-06: $17.18 per share

- 2019-07: $17.87 per share

- 2019-08: $15.97 per share

- 2019-09: $15.38 per share

- 2019-10: $15.56 per share

- 2019-11: $20.60 per share

- 2019-12: $20.97 per share

- 2020-01: $20.86 per share

- 2020-02: $19.77 per share

- 2020-03: $16.36 per share

- 2020-04: $15.09 per share

- 2020-05: $16.71 per share

- 2020-06: $17.19 per share

- 2020-07: $17.75 per share

- 2020-08: $17.39 per share

- 2020-09: $16.89 per share

- 2020-10: $18.34 per share

- 2020-11: $20.53 per share

- 2020-12: $24.81 per share

- 2021-01: $21.22 per share

- 2021-02: $23.75 per share

- 2021-03: $25.56 per share

- 2021-04: $27.75 per share

- 2021-05: $30.02 per share

- 2021-06: $32.29 per share

- 2021-07: $30.49 per share

- 2021-08: $35.03 per share

- 2021-09: $35.01 per share

- 2021-10: $37.90 per share

- 2021-11: $35.06 per share

- 2021-12: $36.53 per share

- 2022-01: $32.67 per share

- 2022-02: $33.17 per share

- 2022-03: $28.87 per share

- 2022-04: $26.99 per share

- 2022-05: $28.28 per share

- 2022-06: $24.10 per share

- 2022-07: $27.67 per share

- 2022-08: $26.78 per share

- 2022-09: $23.31 per share

- 2022-10: $28.92 per share

- 2022-11: $29.00 per share

- 2022-12: $26.83 per share

- 2023-01: $29.64 per share

- 2023-02: $33.96 per share

- 2023-03: $29.27 per share

- 2023-04: $30.54 per share

- 2023-05: $30.97 per share

- 2023-06: $31.54 per share

- 2023-07: $33.16 per share

- 2023-08: $34.42 per share

- 2023-09: $33.34 per share

- 2023-10: $29.46 per share

- 2023-11: $32.15 per share

- 2023-12: $34.44 per share

- 2024-01: $33.73 per share

- 2024-02: $38.43 per share

- 2024-03: $42.43 per share

- 2024-04: $50.86 per share

- 2024-05: $52.03 per share

- 2024-06: $47.73 per share

- 2024-07: $52.39 per share

- 2024-08: $54.57 per share

- 2024-09: $55.40 per share

- 2024-10: $59.93 per share

- 2024-11: $69.48 per share

- 2024-12: $65.46 per share

- 2025-01: $66.18 per share

- 2025-02: $64.04 per share

- 2025-03: $57.87 per share

- 2025-04: $57.29 per share

- 2025-05: $62.01 per share

- 2025-06: $63.67 per share

- 2025-07: $68.91 per share

- 2025-08: $71.28 per share

- 2025-09: $64.76 per share

- 2025-10: $62.27 per share

- 2025-11: $62.89 per share

- 2025-12: $63.09 per share

- 2026-01: $70.53 per share

- 2026-02: $69.18 per share

- 2026-03: $65.48 per share

- 2026-04: $78.51 per share

- 2026-05: $84.55 per share

- 2026-06: $84.06 per share

- 2026-07: $99.03 per share

- 2026-08: $118.01 per share

- 2026-09: $110.60 per share

- 2026-10: $109.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $11.61 per share, central $13.16 per share, high $15.23 per share

- FY2020: low $20.96 per share, central $23.84 per share, high $27.66 per share

- FY2021: low $27.50 per share, central $31.20 per share, high $36.11 per share

- FY2022: low $37.49 per share, central $42.57 per share, high $49.32 per share

- FY2023: low $41.57 per share, central $47.09 per share, high $54.43 per share

- FY2024: low $49.00 per share, central $55.53 per share, high $64.22 per share

- FY2025: low $70.82 per share, central $80.30 per share, high $92.92 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570827/000119312526077057/vctr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.