# Vista Energy (VIST.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VIST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:52.405Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $69.99 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $87.12 per share, central $98.46 per share, high $113.56 per share. Buy at or below the central value $98.46 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:52.405Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.2% at the stated quote. About 13.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.00×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: -0.26×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.54×

- FY2024: 0.38×

- FY2025: 0.33×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 40.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 57.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.2%

- FY2018: 5.3%

- FY2019: 1.5%

- FY2020: -6.6%

- FY2021: 15.9%

- FY2022: 29.9%

- FY2023: 27.1%

- FY2024: 21.3%

- FY2025: 11.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 25.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.0 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.2% vs 21.3%

- Per-share earnings: -0.41 to 4.63 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Per-share value change: $5.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.41

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.63

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.30

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.28

- FY2018: -$0.43

- FY2019: -$0.41

- FY2020: -$1.17

- FY2021: $0.54

- FY2022: $2.76

- FY2023: $4.00

- FY2024: $4.63

- FY2025: $6.71

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: 1.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 2.18×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.89×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.9%

- FY2018: -14.1%

- FY2019: -12.1%

- FY2020: -14.3%

- FY2021: -20.8%

- FY2022: -20.6%

- FY2023: -12.1%

- FY2024: -11.4%

- FY2025: 1.1%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.7% a year for ten years · "Vista Energy's 2026 Outlook: Shale Expansion Drives 70% Adjusted EBITDA Margins" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +50.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:48.104Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Vista Energy Shares Fall 7% Since Reporting Q2 Earnings Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vista-energy-shares-fall-7-162100665.html))

- 2026-03-05: VIST Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Realized Crude Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vist-q4-earnings-miss-estimates-135400863.html))

- 2026-05-18: Vista Energy Q1 Earnings Miss on Lower Realized Commodity Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/vista-energy-q1-earnings-miss-161800051.html))

- 2026-07-21: VIST Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y on Production Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/vist-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-172900506.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +50.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-28.

- FY2017: $198M 

- FY2018: $331M 

- FY2019: $416M 

- FY2020: $274M 

- FY2021: $652M 

- FY2022: $1.1B 

- FY2023: $1.2B 

- FY2024: $1.6B 

- FY2025: $2.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-28.

- FY2017: 12.0% 

- FY2018: 35.8% 

- FY2019: 21.1% 

- FY2020: 0.9% 

- FY2021: 40.9% 

- FY2022: 55.1% 

- FY2023: 50.6% 

- FY2024: 76.2% 

- FY2025: 47.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 2.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: revenue 2474197000; grossProfit 1175030000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 47.5% to 76.2% during 2023–25; it earns 11.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 50.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.021723563983369016],[2018,0.0527280496547843],[2019,0.014514023918904481],[2020,-0.06582267754620152],[2021,0.15921591141761596],[2022,0.29925509357987506],[2023,0.2707446948182379],[2024,0.21250517510352296],[2025,0.11296543553278056]]; median 0.11296543553278056. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 25.7% on new investment; paid dividends in 3 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 31660000; owner earnings 45522000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2021: growth capex 131584000; upkeep 191313000; owner earnings 50650000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.597907206317868.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2022: growth capex 250529000; upkeep 234862000; owner earnings 269535000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9294859665720593.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2023: growth capex 55057953.10631323; upkeep 640672046.8936868; owner earnings 32712953.10631323. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.6830627588827396.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); FY2024: growth capex 626159000; upkeep 437699000; owner earnings 477521000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3112700802687212.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: growth capex 721193836; upkeep 738903000; owner earnings 719063000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0029633509164009.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Incremental return on capital 0.25677759300088965, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Dividend observations: [[2017,6733000],[2018,554982000],[2019,90233000],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-28); FY2025: cash repurchases 50160979 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VIST.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.737 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06425492892258361. Price 69.99; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-07: $10.02 per share

- 2019-08: $4.00 per share

- 2019-09: $5.17 per share

- 2019-10: $4.90 per share

- 2019-11: $5.72 per share

- 2019-12: $7.85 per share

- 2020-01: $7.11 per share

- 2020-02: $6.23 per share

- 2020-03: $2.00 per share

- 2020-04: $2.86 per share

- 2020-05: $2.94 per share

- 2020-06: $3.05 per share

- 2020-07: $3.52 per share

- 2020-08: $2.87 per share

- 2020-09: $2.25 per share

- 2020-10: $1.99 per share

- 2020-11: $2.65 per share

- 2020-12: $2.56 per share

- 2021-01: $2.49 per share

- 2021-02: $2.70 per share

- 2021-03: $2.56 per share

- 2021-04: $2.66 per share

- 2021-05: $3.58 per share

- 2021-06: $4.10 per share

- 2021-07: $4.76 per share

- 2021-08: $4.62 per share

- 2021-09: $5.03 per share

- 2021-10: $6.38 per share

- 2021-11: $5.02 per share

- 2021-12: $5.33 per share

- 2022-01: $6.27 per share

- 2022-02: $8.25 per share

- 2022-03: $9.09 per share

- 2022-04: $8.46 per share

- 2022-05: $9.13 per share

- 2022-06: $7.39 per share

- 2022-07: $8.78 per share

- 2022-08: $9.86 per share

- 2022-09: $9.42 per share

- 2022-10: $13.23 per share

- 2022-11: $14.41 per share

- 2022-12: $15.66 per share

- 2023-01: $15.90 per share

- 2023-02: $18.04 per share

- 2023-03: $19.79 per share

- 2023-04: $20.92 per share

- 2023-05: $20.67 per share

- 2023-06: $24.12 per share

- 2023-07: $26.10 per share

- 2023-08: $26.80 per share

- 2023-09: $30.39 per share

- 2023-10: $27.22 per share

- 2023-11: $30.83 per share

- 2023-12: $29.51 per share

- 2024-01: $32.76 per share

- 2024-02: $36.80 per share

- 2024-03: $41.38 per share

- 2024-04: $43.15 per share

- 2024-05: $48.45 per share

- 2024-06: $45.48 per share

- 2024-07: $45.06 per share

- 2024-08: $52.13 per share

- 2024-09: $44.18 per share

- 2024-10: $49.86 per share

- 2024-11: $53.23 per share

- 2024-12: $54.11 per share

- 2025-01: $53.95 per share

- 2025-02: $50.78 per share

- 2025-03: $46.56 per share

- 2025-04: $45.17 per share

- 2025-05: $49.53 per share

- 2025-06: $47.81 per share

- 2025-07: $44.70 per share

- 2025-08: $38.98 per share

- 2025-09: $34.40 per share

- 2025-10: $48.45 per share

- 2025-11: $49.16 per share

- 2025-12: $48.66 per share

- 2026-01: $60.49 per share

- 2026-02: $57.74 per share

- 2026-03: $75.47 per share

- 2026-04: $74.32 per share

- 2026-05: $74.20 per share

- 2026-06: $63.80 per share

- 2026-07: $70.45 per share

- 2026-08: $71.46 per share

- 2026-09: $65.35 per share

- 2026-10: $69.99 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $5.52 per share, central $6.01 per share, high $6.67 per share

- FY2024: low $20.66 per share, central $22.54 per share, high $25.03 per share

- FY2025: low $64.00 per share, central $72.20 per share, high $83.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:37.951Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.