# Vulcan Steel (VSL.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VSL.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: NZD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 5.04 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 2.42 per share, central AUD 2.74 per share, high AUD 3.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 2.74 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.69×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- FY2026: -0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 22.5%

- FY2019: 16.3%

- FY2020: 9.7%

- FY2021: 18.3%

- FY2022: 23.1%

- FY2023: 15.2%

- FY2024: 6.1%

- FY2025: 2.9%

- FY2026: -2.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: NZD 233M

- Net income, five-year total: NZD 288M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.59×

- FY2024: 0.90×

- FY2025: 1.24×

- FY2026: 0.98×

### management: fail

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.3% vs 2.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.25 to 0.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.8%

- Per-share value growth: -8.6%

- Per-share value change: NZD -0.10

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: NZD 0.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: NZD 0.14

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: NZD 0.32

- FY2019: NZD 0.24

- FY2020: NZD 0.25

- FY2021: NZD 0.46

- FY2022: NZD 0.94

- FY2023: NZD 0.66

- FY2024: NZD 0.30

- FY2025: NZD 0.12

- FY2026: NZD 0.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.72×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.16×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 5.5%

- FY2019: 2.1%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: -7.6%

- FY2022: 15.8%

- FY2024: -14.2%

- FY2025: -10.4%

- FY2026: -5.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 47% since Dec 2021 · sales +22.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.605Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +22.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: NZD 542M 

- FY2019: NZD 671M 

- FY2020: NZD 650M 

- FY2021: NZD 731M 

- FY2022: NZD 968M 

- FY2023: NZD 1.2B 

- FY2024: NZD 1.1B 

- FY2025: NZD 948M 

- FY2026: NZD 1.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 33.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: 22.3% 

- FY2019: 17.1% 

- FY2020: 16.4% 

- FY2021: 20.9% 

- FY2022: 40.0% 

- FY2023: 35.7% 

- FY2024: 35.2% 

- FY2025: 34.2% 

- FY2026: 33.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in steel; annual sales are NZD 1.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2026: revenue 1158807000; grossProfit 385263000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VSL.AU: Vulcan Steel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of steel and metal products in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Steel and Metals segments. The company sells steel hollows; merchant products, including bars, beams, angles, channels, and unprocessed coils and plates; stainless steel products, such as fittings and sheets; and high-performance steel and metal products. It also offers processing services including cutting, drilling, tapping, countersinking, and folding of plates, as well as sheeting and slitting services. In addition, the company distributes aluminium sheets, plates, and coils. Further, it is involved in the fabrication and sale of roofing and roofing-related products. Vulcan Steel Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.2% to 35.2% during 2024–26; it earns 15.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 33.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); 9-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.2245271394701998],[2019,0.16319572930400028],[2020,0.09739131474377],[2021,0.18264624279097985],[2022,0.23109243683518252],[2023,0.15209137252014057],[2024,0.0608366460380459],[2025,0.02865590420746823],[2026,-0.02774730423852894]]; median 0.15209137252014057. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 14794718; owner earnings 35677030. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15524609; owner earnings 45896031. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4968000; owner earnings 59253848. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 5661000; owner earnings 49094467.32. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 11011002.89; owner earnings 104865068.624. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2023-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 22952000; cash acquisitions 170543000; owner earnings 52267600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.2628817852742427.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 26688000; owner earnings 35980800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 21320000; owner earnings 19518000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/R70.F.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 26606000; cash acquisitions 86981000; owner earnings 20300400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.284693897657189.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); Dividend observations: [[2018,16093005],[2019,62000000],[2020,15000000],[2021,53000000],[2022,93918650.79],[2023,85173000],[2024,57423000],[2025,19361000],[2026,8787000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 44.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VSL.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 44.678000000000004 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:46:50.248Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11094047342844326. Price 5.04; FX 0.8124078517533463; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2021-11: AUD 8.00 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 9.50 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 9.35 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 9.06 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 8.84 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 9.10 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 8.43 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 7.65 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 8.80 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 7.88 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 6.80 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 7.50 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 8.18 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 8.17 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 9.07 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 8.37 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 7.67 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 7.80 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 7.76 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 8.22 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 7.76 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 7.90 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 7.35 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 7.15 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 7.37 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 7.65 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 7.41 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 7.81 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 8.43 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 7.56 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 7.21 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 6.67 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 6.25 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 7.40 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 7.69 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 7.46 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 7.32 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 7.22 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 7.30 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 7.86 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 7.37 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 6.44 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 5.82 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 6.03 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 6.52 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 7.02 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 7.25 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 7.24 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 6.94 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 6.95 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 7.19 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 5.27 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 5.12 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 5.55 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 5.25 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 5.56 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 5.65 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 5.23 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2022: low AUD 4.49 per share, central AUD 5.11 per share, high AUD 5.93 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 5.70 per share, central AUD 6.48 per share, high AUD 7.53 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 4.80 per share, central AUD 5.46 per share, high AUD 6.33 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 2.66 per share, central AUD 3.02 per share, high AUD 3.51 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 2.46 per share, central AUD 2.80 per share, high AUD 3.24 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:52:12.477Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.