# Vistra (VST.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:58.283Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $154.17 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $16.34 per share, central $18.57 per share, high $21.54 per share. Buy at or below the central value $18.57 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:58.283Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.8% at the stated quote. About 3.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: -0.07×

- FY2022: -0.08×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -10.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 32.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.2%

- FY2017: 1.4%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: 7.7%

- FY2020: 6.8%

- FY2021: -5.1%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: 14.5%

- FY2024: 17.5%

- FY2025: 7.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.39×

- FY2023: 1.19×

- FY2024: 1.21×

- FY2025: 0.49×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.3% vs 14.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.59 to 3.98 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.8%

- Market cap gain: $48B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $4.57

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.59

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.98

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.18

- Average buyback yield: 6.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $27B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $53.06

- FY2017: -$0.59

- FY2018: -$0.11

- FY2019: $1.86

- FY2020: $1.30

- FY2021: -$2.64

- FY2022: -$2.90

- FY2023: $3.98

- FY2024: $7.54

- FY2025: $2.73

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.13×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.31×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 150.6%

- FY2017: -11.2%

- FY2018: -5.9%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -10.7%

- FY2021: -3.6%

- FY2022: -5.2%

- FY2023: -12.0%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -7.5%

## Holders

- [David Tepper](https://gigainvestors.com/AM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [John Armitage](https://gigainvestors.com/EC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 26% since Jul 2025 · "The nuclear stock also narrowed its 2025 guidance." (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:49.744Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 28.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-18: Vistra Corp. (VST) Bets on AI Power Demand With $1.9 Billion Natural Gas Deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-corp-vst-bets-ai-174819089.html))

- 2025-07-07: Vistra receives approval to extend Perry nuclear plant operation ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/vistra-receives-approval-to-extend-perry-nuclear-plant-operation-93CH-4125448))

- 2025-11-06: Vistra Misses Revenue by 19% but Doubles Down with $1 Billion Buyback ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-misses-revenue-19-doubles-154209617.html))

- 2026-01-29: Vistra Meta Nuclear Deal Adds Long Term Zero Carbon Revenue Visibility ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-meta-nuclear-deal-adds-031544831.html))

- 2026-02-26: Vistra reports weaker quarterly earnings, offers 2026 outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-reports-weaker-quarterly-earnings-124527060.html))

- 2026-08-12: Vistra Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Pricing and Lotus, Revenues Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vistra-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-134800362.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $5.3B 

- FY2017: $5.4B 

- FY2018: $9.1B 

- FY2019: $12B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $14B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 32.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 17.5% 

- FY2017: 14.1% 

- FY2018: 30.7% 

- FY2019: 22.2% 

- FY2020: 22.6% 

- FY2021: 0.5% 

- FY2022: 12.3% 

- FY2023: 37.4% 

- FY2024: 43.7% 

- FY2025: 32.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities independent power producers; annual sales are USD 17.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 17738000000; grossProfit 5834000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VST.US: Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32.9% to 43.7% during 2023–25; it earns 5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.031995277449822904],[2017,0.014197530864197531],[2018,0.023419066594216022],[2019,0.07694910031351981],[2020,0.06806400946805488],[2021,-0.05070945945945946],[2022,-0.057326973684210525],[2023,0.1452029016734899],[2024,0.17477166570925648],[2025,0.07327330663519296]]; median 0.05002964345893889. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 352000000; owner earnings 23153000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 531000000; owner earnings 50000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 496000000; owner earnings 983000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 609000000; owner earnings 2195000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1259000000; owner earnings 1425000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1676000000; owner earnings 1773000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2078000000; owner earnings 3212000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 505886801.4152446; upkeep 3435113198.5847554; owner earnings 458886801.4152446. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.102421773420042.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,992000000],[2017,1505000000],[2018,243000000],[2019,243000000],[2020,266000000],[2021,290000000],[2022,453000000],[2023,463000000],[2024,478000000],[2025,498000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 1028000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VST.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.773 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Market, Financial, and Economic Risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Market, Financial, and Economic Risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 28.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.4044263695652691. Price 154.17; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -9.688888888888888 → FY2025 1.32758208295891. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $15.20 per share

- 2016-11: $13.95 per share

- 2016-12: $15.50 per share

- 2017-01: $16.21 per share

- 2017-02: $16.16 per share

- 2017-03: $16.30 per share

- 2017-04: $14.95 per share

- 2017-05: $14.77 per share

- 2017-06: $16.79 per share

- 2017-07: $16.43 per share

- 2017-08: $17.70 per share

- 2017-09: $18.69 per share

- 2017-10: $19.44 per share

- 2017-11: $18.90 per share

- 2017-12: $18.32 per share

- 2018-01: $19.50 per share

- 2018-02: $18.95 per share

- 2018-03: $20.83 per share

- 2018-04: $22.85 per share

- 2018-05: $24.53 per share

- 2018-06: $23.66 per share

- 2018-07: $22.60 per share

- 2018-08: $23.54 per share

- 2018-09: $24.88 per share

- 2018-10: $22.63 per share

- 2018-11: $23.48 per share

- 2018-12: $22.89 per share

- 2019-01: $25.11 per share

- 2019-02: $26.04 per share

- 2019-03: $26.03 per share

- 2019-04: $27.25 per share

- 2019-05: $23.56 per share

- 2019-06: $22.64 per share

- 2019-07: $21.46 per share

- 2019-08: $24.95 per share

- 2019-09: $26.73 per share

- 2019-10: $27.03 per share

- 2019-11: $26.53 per share

- 2019-12: $22.99 per share

- 2020-01: $22.52 per share

- 2020-02: $19.23 per share

- 2020-03: $15.96 per share

- 2020-04: $19.54 per share

- 2020-05: $20.44 per share

- 2020-06: $18.62 per share

- 2020-07: $18.66 per share

- 2020-08: $19.23 per share

- 2020-09: $18.86 per share

- 2020-10: $17.37 per share

- 2020-11: $18.68 per share

- 2020-12: $19.66 per share

- 2021-01: $19.97 per share

- 2021-02: $17.25 per share

- 2021-03: $17.68 per share

- 2021-04: $16.87 per share

- 2021-05: $16.17 per share

- 2021-06: $18.55 per share

- 2021-07: $19.15 per share

- 2021-08: $19.09 per share

- 2021-09: $17.10 per share

- 2021-10: $19.59 per share

- 2021-11: $19.88 per share

- 2021-12: $22.77 per share

- 2022-01: $21.81 per share

- 2022-02: $22.82 per share

- 2022-03: $23.25 per share

- 2022-04: $25.02 per share

- 2022-05: $26.37 per share

- 2022-06: $22.85 per share

- 2022-07: $25.85 per share

- 2022-08: $24.75 per share

- 2022-09: $21.00 per share

- 2022-10: $22.97 per share

- 2022-11: $24.33 per share

- 2022-12: $23.20 per share

- 2023-01: $23.06 per share

- 2023-02: $21.99 per share

- 2023-03: $24.00 per share

- 2023-04: $23.86 per share

- 2023-05: $23.97 per share

- 2023-06: $26.25 per share

- 2023-07: $28.06 per share

- 2023-08: $31.42 per share

- 2023-09: $33.18 per share

- 2023-10: $32.72 per share

- 2023-11: $35.41 per share

- 2023-12: $38.52 per share

- 2024-01: $41.03 per share

- 2024-02: $54.54 per share

- 2024-03: $69.65 per share

- 2024-04: $75.84 per share

- 2024-05: $99.08 per share

- 2024-06: $85.98 per share

- 2024-07: $79.22 per share

- 2024-08: $85.43 per share

- 2024-09: $118.54 per share

- 2024-10: $124.96 per share

- 2024-11: $159.84 per share

- 2024-12: $137.87 per share

- 2025-01: $168.03 per share

- 2025-02: $133.66 per share

- 2025-03: $117.44 per share

- 2025-04: $129.63 per share

- 2025-05: $160.57 per share

- 2025-06: $193.81 per share

- 2025-07: $208.54 per share

- 2025-08: $189.11 per share

- 2025-09: $195.92 per share

- 2025-10: $188.30 per share

- 2025-11: $178.86 per share

- 2025-12: $161.33 per share

- 2026-01: $158.35 per share

- 2026-02: $173.89 per share

- 2026-03: $150.33 per share

- 2026-04: $157.84 per share

- 2026-05: $160.23 per share

- 2026-06: $158.63 per share

- 2026-07: $148.19 per share

- 2026-08: $137.37 per share

- 2026-09: $138.35 per share

- 2026-10: $162.36 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $2.74 per share, central $2.99 per share, high $3.33 per share

- FY2019: low $27.17 per share, central $30.90 per share, high $35.86 per share

- FY2020: low $32.09 per share, central $36.47 per share, high $42.29 per share

- FY2021: low $34.68 per share, central $39.16 per share, high $45.13 per share

- FY2022: low $38.61 per share, central $43.88 per share, high $50.88 per share

- FY2023: low $60.15 per share, central $67.27 per share, high $76.75 per share

- FY2024: low $66.45 per share, central $75.28 per share, high $87.04 per share

- FY2025: low $15.85 per share, central $17.85 per share, high $20.51 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000006/vistra-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.