# Ventas (VTR.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VTR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:59.257Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $84.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $27.08 per share, central $30.80 per share, high $35.74 per share. Buy at or below the central value $30.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:59.257Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.5% at the stated quote. About 5.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.22×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 47.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 47.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -2.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.9%

- FY2018: 4.2%

- FY2019: 3.8%

- FY2020: 2.9%

- FY2021: 1.8%

- FY2022: 1.8%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: 3.0%

- FY2025: 3.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 3.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 15.41×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $293M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -12.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -15.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 16.96×

- FY2022: -12.40×

- FY2023: -21.12×

- FY2024: 11.91×

- FY2025: 5.04×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.9% vs 3.0%

- Per-share earnings: 1.86 to 0.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Market cap gain: $14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$5.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -24.6%

- Per-share value change: -$1.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.86

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.19

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.30

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.86

- FY2017: $3.78

- FY2018: $1.14

- FY2019: $1.17

- FY2020: $1.17

- FY2021: $0.13

- FY2022: -$0.12

- FY2023: -$0.10

- FY2024: $0.19

- FY2025: $0.54

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.68×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: -0.3%

- FY2018: -4.6%

- FY2019: -4.1%

- FY2020: -4.2%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: -4.8%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -4.8%

- FY2025: -5.2%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.7% a year for ten years · "SHOP Revenue Growth: 8.2% driven by occupancy and pricing improvements." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +10.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:49.998Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Ventas Q2 results top consensus, nudges up low end of FFO guidance ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4474880-ventas-q2-results-top-consensus-nudges-up-low-end-of-ffo-guidance?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-08: Ventas Results And Dividend Raise Highlight Senior Housing Growth Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ventas-results-dividend-raise-highlight-110503748.html))

- 2026-04-27: Ventas boosts full-year earnings guidance as occupancy gains fuel Q1 earnings beat ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4580259-ventas-boosts-full-year-earnings-guidance-as-occupancy-gains-fuel-q1-earnings-beat?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: $3.6B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $3.9B 

- FY2020: $3.8B 

- FY2021: $3.8B 

- FY2022: $4.1B 

- FY2023: $4.5B 

- FY2024: $4.9B 

- FY2025: $5.8B 

- FY2026: $6.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 42.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-06.

- FY2017: 58.4% 

- FY2018: 54.8% 

- FY2019: 53.2% 

- FY2020: 48.9% 

- FY2021: 45.4% 

- FY2022: 44.7% 

- FY2023: 43.1% 

- FY2024: 42.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 5.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: revenue 5833980000; grossProfit -344216000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VTR.US: Ventas, Inc. is an S&P 500 company enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. With approximately 1,450 properties in North America and the United Kingdom, Ventas occupies an essential role in the longevity economy. The Company's growth is fueled by its more than 900 senior housing communities, which provide valuable services to residents and enable them to thrive in supported environments. Ventas aims to deliver outsized performance by leveraging its operational expertise, data-driven insights from its Ventas OITM platform, extensive relationships and strong financial position. The Ventas portfolio also includes outpatient medical buildings, research centers and healthcare facilities. Ventas, Inc. is based in Illinois, Chicago. Ventas, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 in Maryland.

### Why customers stay

It earns 3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = -5.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.028920345411812487],[2018,0.04163241573884968],[2019,0.038476946627335015],[2020,0.028734439924741652],[2021,0.01763161160785261],[2022,0.01780070878088133],[2023,0.015183179540084657],[2024,0.030184248734196062],[2025,0.03450839934269716],[2026,0.030800665082025648]]; median 0.029552297073004274. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 117456000; owner earnings 2974435000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 132558000; owner earnings 3720965000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 131858000; owner earnings 3077796000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 560647000; owner earnings 940974000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 528647000; owner earnings 1040984000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 432969000; owner earnings 831151000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 454069000; owner earnings 588482000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 259415000; owner earnings 865473000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 281614000; owner earnings 966682000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 363863000; owner earnings 1266658000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Dividend observations: [[2016,1024968000],[2017,827285000],[2018,1127143000],[2019,1157720000],[2020,928809000],[2021,686888000],[2022,720319000],[2023,723559000],[2024,740326000],[2025,860060000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VTR.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.506 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If our managers’, tenants’ or borrowers’ financial condition or business prospects deteriorate" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-06); If our managers’, tenants’ or borrowers’ financial condition or business prospects deteriorate

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 3.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-06); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.18544455447139063. Price 84.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.8605987299667373 → FY2025 2.738039190255396. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $67.75 per share

- 2016-11: $60.42 per share

- 2016-12: $62.52 per share

- 2017-01: $61.67 per share

- 2017-02: $65.05 per share

- 2017-03: $65.04 per share

- 2017-04: $64.01 per share

- 2017-05: $66.49 per share

- 2017-06: $69.48 per share

- 2017-07: $67.35 per share

- 2017-08: $68.44 per share

- 2017-09: $65.13 per share

- 2017-10: $62.75 per share

- 2017-11: $64.01 per share

- 2017-12: $60.01 per share

- 2018-01: $55.97 per share

- 2018-02: $48.32 per share

- 2018-03: $49.53 per share

- 2018-04: $51.42 per share

- 2018-05: $54.66 per share

- 2018-06: $56.95 per share

- 2018-07: $56.38 per share

- 2018-08: $59.87 per share

- 2018-09: $54.38 per share

- 2018-10: $58.04 per share

- 2018-11: $63.49 per share

- 2018-12: $58.59 per share

- 2019-01: $64.49 per share

- 2019-02: $62.75 per share

- 2019-03: $63.81 per share

- 2019-04: $61.11 per share

- 2019-05: $64.30 per share

- 2019-06: $68.35 per share

- 2019-07: $67.29 per share

- 2019-08: $73.39 per share

- 2019-09: $73.03 per share

- 2019-10: $65.10 per share

- 2019-11: $58.31 per share

- 2019-12: $57.74 per share

- 2020-01: $57.86 per share

- 2020-02: $53.77 per share

- 2020-03: $26.80 per share

- 2020-04: $32.35 per share

- 2020-05: $34.95 per share

- 2020-06: $36.62 per share

- 2020-07: $38.36 per share

- 2020-08: $41.21 per share

- 2020-09: $41.96 per share

- 2020-10: $39.47 per share

- 2020-11: $47.91 per share

- 2020-12: $49.04 per share

- 2021-01: $46.07 per share

- 2021-02: $52.90 per share

- 2021-03: $53.34 per share

- 2021-04: $55.46 per share

- 2021-05: $55.45 per share

- 2021-06: $57.10 per share

- 2021-07: $59.78 per share

- 2021-08: $55.94 per share

- 2021-09: $55.21 per share

- 2021-10: $53.37 per share

- 2021-11: $46.92 per share

- 2021-12: $51.12 per share

- 2022-01: $53.02 per share

- 2022-02: $54.00 per share

- 2022-03: $61.76 per share

- 2022-04: $55.55 per share

- 2022-05: $56.74 per share

- 2022-06: $51.43 per share

- 2022-07: $53.78 per share

- 2022-08: $47.86 per share

- 2022-09: $40.17 per share

- 2022-10: $39.13 per share

- 2022-11: $46.53 per share

- 2022-12: $45.05 per share

- 2023-01: $51.81 per share

- 2023-02: $48.65 per share

- 2023-03: $43.35 per share

- 2023-04: $48.05 per share

- 2023-05: $43.14 per share

- 2023-06: $47.27 per share

- 2023-07: $48.52 per share

- 2023-08: $43.68 per share

- 2023-09: $42.13 per share

- 2023-10: $42.46 per share

- 2023-11: $45.84 per share

- 2023-12: $49.84 per share

- 2024-01: $46.39 per share

- 2024-02: $42.29 per share

- 2024-03: $43.54 per share

- 2024-04: $44.28 per share

- 2024-05: $50.26 per share

- 2024-06: $51.26 per share

- 2024-07: $54.44 per share

- 2024-08: $62.11 per share

- 2024-09: $64.13 per share

- 2024-10: $65.49 per share

- 2024-11: $64.07 per share

- 2024-12: $58.89 per share

- 2025-01: $60.42 per share

- 2025-02: $69.18 per share

- 2025-03: $68.76 per share

- 2025-04: $70.08 per share

- 2025-05: $64.28 per share

- 2025-06: $63.15 per share

- 2025-07: $67.18 per share

- 2025-08: $68.08 per share

- 2025-09: $69.99 per share

- 2025-10: $73.79 per share

- 2025-11: $80.63 per share

- 2025-12: $77.38 per share

- 2026-01: $77.67 per share

- 2026-02: $86.16 per share

- 2026-03: $81.78 per share

- 2026-04: $87.86 per share

- 2026-05: $84.42 per share

- 2026-06: $88.80 per share

- 2026-07: $93.51 per share

- 2026-08: $91.17 per share

- 2026-09: $85.02 per share

- 2026-10: $83.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $40.20 per share, central $45.65 per share, high $52.92 per share

- FY2017: low $42.93 per share, central $48.82 per share, high $56.67 per share

- FY2018: low $93.63 per share, central $106.54 per share, high $123.72 per share

- FY2019: low $94.11 per share, central $107.08 per share, high $124.33 per share

- FY2020: low $92.06 per share, central $104.54 per share, high $121.16 per share

- FY2021: low $29.90 per share, central $33.99 per share, high $39.45 per share

- FY2022: low $27.28 per share, central $31.03 per share, high $36.02 per share

- FY2023: low $27.35 per share, central $30.97 per share, high $35.80 per share

- FY2024: low $27.30 per share, central $30.80 per share, high $35.45 per share

- FY2025: low $28.41 per share, central $32.14 per share, high $37.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:44.911Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/740260/000074026026000006/vtr-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-06.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.