# Wayfair (W.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/W

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:00.547Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $111.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 9

- Operating margin variation: 0.88×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.06×

- FY2017: -0.05×

- FY2018: -0.07×

- FY2019: -0.10×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: -0.01×

- FY2022: -0.11×

- FY2023: -0.07×

- FY2024: -0.04×

- FY2025: 0.00×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -127.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -389.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 5

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -130.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -88.0%

- FY2017: -38.2%

- FY2018: -58.3%

- FY2019: -167.5%

- FY2020: 13.3%

- FY2021: -208.6%

- FY2022: -334.8%

- FY2023: -441.1%

- FY2024: -389.1%

- FY2025: 1.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$2.7B

- Net income, five-year total: -$3.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -7.7%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$89M

- FY2022: -$1.4B

- FY2023: -$672M

- FY2024: -$339M

- FY2025: -$213M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -58.3% vs -389.1%

- Per-share earnings: -2.29 to -4.00 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.3%

- Market cap gain: $9.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$4.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$1.71

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.29

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$4.00

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.10

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $17M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$4.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -58.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -389.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.29

- FY2017: -$2.81

- FY2018: -$5.63

- FY2019: -$10.70

- FY2020: $1.87

- FY2021: -$1.26

- FY2022: -$12.56

- FY2023: -$6.47

- FY2024: -$4.00

- FY2025: -$2.45

### accounting: fail

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -24.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.43×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 62.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 2

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -33.8%

- FY2017: -22.9%

- FY2018: -31.1%

- FY2019: -26.7%

- FY2020: -27.0%

- FY2021: -11.8%

- FY2022: -18.4%

- FY2023: -31.3%

- FY2024: -23.4%

- FY2025: -24.6%

## Holders

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 55% since Oct 2021 · "Wayfair stock fell sharply Thursday after the furniture retailer missed estimates for first-quarter earnings." (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +5.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:50.321Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-07-21: Wayfair Poised For Q2 Sales Beat On Strong Inventory, Vendor Promotions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wayfair-poised-q2-sales-beat-170831469.html))

- 2025-09-26: Trump’s new furniture tariffs send Wayfair, RH and others’ stocks lower ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-furniture-tariffs-send-wayfair-110935952.html))

- 2025-10-28: Wayfair outlines 5.5%-6.5% Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin target as AI initiatives drive structural gains ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4509494-wayfair-outlines-5_5-percentminus-6_5-percent-q4-adjusted-ebitda-margin-target-as-ai?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-19: Wayfair Drops as Colder Weather Muddies 1Q Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/wayfair-drops-colder-weather-muddies-224834914.html))

- 2026-04-30: Wayfair stock drops as earnings miss overshadows revenue beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wayfair-stock-drops-earnings-miss-114003774.html))

- 2026-08-05: Wayfair (W) Rallies 30% as Sales Growth Hits Post-Pandemic High ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wayfair-w-rallies-30-sales-002508370.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616707/000161670726000027/w-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $3.4B 

- FY2017: $4.7B 

- FY2018: $6.8B 

- FY2019: $9.1B 

- FY2020: $14B 

- FY2021: $14B 

- FY2022: $12B 

- FY2023: $12B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616707/000161670726000027/w-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 23.9% 

- FY2017: 23.7% 

- FY2018: 23.4% 

- FY2019: 23.5% 

- FY2020: 29.1% 

- FY2021: 28.4% 

- FY2022: 28.0% 

- FY2023: 30.6% 

- FY2024: 30.2% 

- FY2025: 30.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are USD 12.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616707/000161670726000027/w-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 12457000000; grossProfit 3765000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); W.US: Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. It provides online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites comprising Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional. The company offers its products under the Three Posts and Mercury Row brands. Wayfair Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.2% to 30.6% during 2023–25.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616707/000161670726000027/w-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.8802916105877074],[2017,-0.3816305398202309],[2018,-0.5833387835849654],[2019,-1.6753935953805736],[2020,0.13339389231794557],[2021,-2.0859550561797753],[2022,-3.347703612982241],[2023,-4.411195054945055],[2024,-3.8909188034188036],[2025,0.010443234836702954]]; median -1.2778426029841405. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 48723000; upkeep 285711000; owner earnings 185000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2633675675675676.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); W.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.407 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 1.2 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Closing price 111.93 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 97.3203125; price multiple 1.1501196114634342. FY2025 cash earnings/share -1.6640625. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $33.33 per share

- 2016-11: $36.45 per share

- 2016-12: $35.05 per share

- 2017-01: $41.56 per share

- 2017-02: $37.81 per share

- 2017-03: $40.49 per share

- 2017-04: $45.71 per share

- 2017-05: $62.95 per share

- 2017-06: $76.88 per share

- 2017-07: $76.35 per share

- 2017-08: $71.01 per share

- 2017-09: $67.40 per share

- 2017-10: $69.90 per share

- 2017-11: $69.99 per share

- 2017-12: $80.27 per share

- 2018-01: $92.01 per share

- 2018-02: $77.42 per share

- 2018-03: $67.53 per share

- 2018-04: $62.30 per share

- 2018-05: $92.35 per share

- 2018-06: $118.76 per share

- 2018-07: $108.82 per share

- 2018-08: $135.17 per share

- 2018-09: $147.67 per share

- 2018-10: $110.29 per share

- 2018-11: $106.20 per share

- 2018-12: $90.08 per share

- 2019-01: $109.46 per share

- 2019-02: $165.68 per share

- 2019-03: $148.45 per share

- 2019-04: $162.15 per share

- 2019-05: $144.01 per share

- 2019-06: $146.00 per share

- 2019-07: $131.16 per share

- 2019-08: $112.74 per share

- 2019-09: $112.12 per share

- 2019-10: $82.23 per share

- 2019-11: $84.92 per share

- 2019-12: $90.37 per share

- 2020-01: $93.70 per share

- 2020-02: $63.21 per share

- 2020-03: $53.44 per share

- 2020-04: $124.04 per share

- 2020-05: $171.55 per share

- 2020-06: $197.61 per share

- 2020-07: $266.09 per share

- 2020-08: $296.56 per share

- 2020-09: $291.01 per share

- 2020-10: $248.03 per share

- 2020-11: $254.36 per share

- 2020-12: $225.81 per share

- 2021-01: $272.32 per share

- 2021-02: $288.98 per share

- 2021-03: $314.75 per share

- 2021-04: $295.57 per share

- 2021-05: $306.54 per share

- 2021-06: $315.71 per share

- 2021-07: $241.36 per share

- 2021-08: $280.75 per share

- 2021-09: $255.51 per share

- 2021-10: $249.10 per share

- 2021-11: $247.84 per share

- 2021-12: $189.97 per share

- 2022-01: $155.92 per share

- 2022-02: $140.87 per share

- 2022-03: $110.78 per share

- 2022-04: $76.94 per share

- 2022-05: $59.39 per share

- 2022-06: $43.56 per share

- 2022-07: $53.91 per share

- 2022-08: $52.71 per share

- 2022-09: $32.55 per share

- 2022-10: $37.92 per share

- 2022-11: $36.64 per share

- 2022-12: $32.89 per share

- 2023-01: $60.50 per share

- 2023-02: $40.49 per share

- 2023-03: $34.34 per share

- 2023-04: $34.83 per share

- 2023-05: $40.32 per share

- 2023-06: $65.01 per share

- 2023-07: $77.87 per share

- 2023-08: $69.11 per share

- 2023-09: $60.57 per share

- 2023-10: $42.61 per share

- 2023-11: $55.80 per share

- 2023-12: $61.70 per share

- 2024-01: $50.25 per share

- 2024-02: $59.60 per share

- 2024-03: $67.88 per share

- 2024-04: $50.15 per share

- 2024-05: $59.49 per share

- 2024-06: $52.73 per share

- 2024-07: $54.43 per share

- 2024-08: $42.55 per share

- 2024-09: $56.18 per share

- 2024-10: $42.83 per share

- 2024-11: $46.24 per share

- 2024-12: $44.32 per share

- 2025-01: $48.37 per share

- 2025-02: $39.55 per share

- 2025-03: $32.03 per share

- 2025-04: $30.16 per share

- 2025-05: $41.24 per share

- 2025-06: $51.14 per share

- 2025-07: $65.64 per share

- 2025-08: $74.60 per share

- 2025-09: $89.33 per share

- 2025-10: $103.51 per share

- 2025-11: $110.80 per share

- 2025-12: $100.41 per share

- 2026-01: $103.49 per share

- 2026-02: $76.33 per share

- 2026-03: $75.21 per share

- 2026-04: $63.93 per share

- 2026-05: $72.26 per share

- 2026-06: $92.42 per share

- 2026-07: $84.90 per share

- 2026-08: $99.27 per share

- 2026-09: $102.56 per share

- 2026-10: $111.93 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1616707/000161670726000027/w-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.