# Waste Connections (WCN.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WCN.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:06.016Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 235.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 63.49 per share, central CAD 72.25 per share, high CAD 83.90 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 72.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:06.016Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.6%

- FY2017: 12.4%

- FY2018: 12.2%

- FY2019: 11.9%

- FY2020: 13.1%

- FY2021: 14.2%

- FY2022: 13.7%

- FY2023: 13.3%

- FY2024: 10.5%

- FY2025: 14.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.06×

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.2% vs 13.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.93 to 2.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: $30B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 15.5%

- Per-share value change: $2.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.93

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.36

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $8.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.93

- FY2017: $2.18

- FY2018: $2.07

- FY2019: $2.14

- FY2020: $0.78

- FY2021: $2.37

- FY2022: $3.24

- FY2023: $2.95

- FY2024: $2.39

- FY2025: $4.17

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.24×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.9%

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -6.8%

- FY2019: -7.1%

- FY2020: -8.6%

- FY2021: -7.3%

- FY2022: -6.9%

- FY2023: -7.6%

- FY2024: -8.1%

- FY2025: -6.3%

## Holders

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.9% a year for ten years · sales +2.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:59.107Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-23: Waste Connections (WCN) Profit Margin Falls on $205.5 Million One-Off Loss, Testing Growth Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waste-connections-wcn-profit-margin-021503162.html))

- 2026-02-17: Waste Connections' Softer-Than-Expected 2026 Free Cash Flow Outlook Draws Focus, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waste-connections-apos-softer-expected-162343710.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $4.6B 

- FY2018: $4.9B 

- FY2019: $5.4B 

- FY2020: $5.4B 

- FY2021: $6.2B 

- FY2022: $7.2B 

- FY2023: $8.0B 

- FY2024: $8.9B 

- FY2025: $9.5B 

- FY2026: $9.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 42.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 42.0% 

- FY2017: 41.6% 

- FY2018: 41.8% 

- FY2019: 40.6% 

- FY2020: 39.8% 

- FY2021: 40.6% 

- FY2022: 39.9% 

- FY2023: 40.9% 

- FY2024: 41.8% 

- FY2025: 42.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in waste management; annual sales are USD 9.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 9466915000; grossProfit 4011533000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WCN.TO: Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company owns and operates transfer stations that receive, compact, and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; develops, owns, and operates projects or the beneficial reuse of landfill gas through landfill network; and intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste created through the initial drilling and completion of an oil or natural gas well, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 40.9% to 42.4% during 2023–25; it earns 12.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 40.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06556614247471122],[2017,0.12382688902263525],[2018,0.12245104467346889],[2019,0.11924530982284148],[2020,0.13112327977424856],[2021,0.1421700635306883],[2022,0.1370182863311755],[2023,0.1325889640532848],[2024,0.10470100587591993],[2025,0.14527016079026314]]; median 0.1274750843984419. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 40% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.4059730846555746],[2022,0.39876639296469885],[2023,0.40855871595326376]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 505.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 344723000; owner earnings 365729000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 479287000; owner earnings 730014000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 546145000; owner earnings 681213000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 666089000; owner earnings 606677600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 664561000; owner earnings 256941200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 744315000; owner earnings 653212000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 912677000; owner earnings 801818600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 934000000; owner earnings 777816400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1055988000; owner earnings 662834600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1194366000; owner earnings 1052042600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,92547000],[2017,131975000],[2018,152550000],[2019,175067000],[2020,199883000],[2021,220203000],[2022,243013000],[2023,270604000],[2024,302258000],[2025,333807000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 505517000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WCN.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.256 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Legal, Regulatory and Compliance Risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Legal, Regulatory and Compliance Risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21646353153109688. Price 235.1; FX 1.4190435646374344; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.35278105464552173 → FY2025 4.078052137266127. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 67.11 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 68.39 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 70.23 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 69.57 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 77.17 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 78.28 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 83.72 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 85.68 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 83.53 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 81.03 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 83.31 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 87.26 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 91.15 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 88.82 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 89.16 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 88.40 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 90.86 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 92.44 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 92.80 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 99.70 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 99.03 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 100.92 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 103.57 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 102.96 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 100.64 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 104.28 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 101.33 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 109.65 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 109.71 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 118.37 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 124.34 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 127.87 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 125.10 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 119.71 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 122.30 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 121.71 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 121.66 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 119.77 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 117.95 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 127.55 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 129.24 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 109.20 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 119.76 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 129.58 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 127.19 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 136.90 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 130.44 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 138.40 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 132.06 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 135.01 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 130.52 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 125.98 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 124.27 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 135.77 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 146.42 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 144.92 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 148.10 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 158.05 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 163.03 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 159.64 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 168.40 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 170.14 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 172.40 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 158.47 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 156.50 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 174.83 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 177.23 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 161.40 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 159.60 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 170.67 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 182.86 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 186.65 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 179.81 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 194.14 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 179.48 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 176.56 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 182.72 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 188.10 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 188.46 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 185.52 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 189.33 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 186.23 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 185.24 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 182.37 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 179.56 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 183.79 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 197.86 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 208.71 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 225.82 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 232.87 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 223.20 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 223.82 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 240.03 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 245.55 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 251.32 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 241.75 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 246.13 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 271.42 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 246.60 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 267.05 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 274.36 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 280.49 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 272.27 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 270.26 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 254.38 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 258.74 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 253.80 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 244.66 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 235.22 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 248.11 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 240.72 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 227.80 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 234.73 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 226.02 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 223.76 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 205.74 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 236.39 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 234.84 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 229.21 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 219.08 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 218.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2016: low CAD 27.26 per share, central CAD 35.26 per share, high CAD 41.15 per share

- FY2017: low CAD 34.15 per share, central CAD 38.60 per share, high CAD 44.53 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 35.79 per share, central CAD 40.56 per share, high CAD 46.91 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 36.73 per share, central CAD 41.63 per share, high CAD 48.16 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 38.81 per share, central CAD 43.79 per share, high CAD 50.41 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 41.25 per share, central CAD 46.92 per share, high CAD 54.46 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 48.21 per share, central CAD 54.86 per share, high CAD 63.70 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 51.18 per share, central CAD 58.24 per share, high CAD 67.63 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 51.86 per share, central CAD 59.01 per share, high CAD 68.53 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 60.44 per share, central CAD 68.78 per share, high CAD 79.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:53.521Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318220/000110465926013700/wcn-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.