# Winnebago Industries (WGO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WGO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:06.130Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $24.66 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $56.75 per share, central $64.57 per share, high $74.98 per share. Buy at or below the central value $64.57 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:06.130Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 22.1% at the stated quote. About 22.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.9%

- FY2017: 18.8%

- FY2018: 21.0%

- FY2019: 21.8%

- FY2020: 12.3%

- FY2021: 37.7%

- FY2022: 40.4%

- FY2023: 19.5%

- FY2024: 5.4%

- FY2025: 4.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $905M

- Net income, five-year total: $927M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.84×

- FY2024: 2.05×

- FY2025: 0.96×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.0% vs 5.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.68 to 0.91 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquisition spending exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Market cap gain: -$94M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.4%

- Per-share value change: -$0.77

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.68

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.91

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.23

- Average buyback yield: 2.9%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.68

- FY2017: $2.32

- FY2018: $3.22

- FY2019: $3.52

- FY2020: $1.84

- FY2021: $8.27

- FY2022: $11.84

- FY2023: $6.10

- FY2024: $0.44

- FY2025: $0.91

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 12.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.02×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.77×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.9%

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: 1.8%

- FY2019: -2.0%

- FY2020: -11.9%

- FY2021: 2.2%

- FY2022: -0.4%

- FY2023: -3.1%

- FY2024: -5.5%

- FY2025: -4.6%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 67% since Dec 2021 · "Winnebago outlines fiscal 2026 net revenue of $2.65B-$2.75B amid softer demand" (seekingalpha.com, Jun 2026) · sales -5.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:51.715Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 11.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-25: Winnebago Cuts Outlook as Tariffs Weigh ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/winnebago-cuts-outlook-tariffs-weigh))

- 2025-12-19: Winnebago Swings to Profit on Higher Sales of Motorhome, Towable RVs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/279107cd-d3cd-36df-b74f-98e4bf0172bb/winnebago-swings-to-profit-on.html))

- 2026-03-25: Winnebago Revenue Rises as Price Hikes Counteract Lower Sales Volume ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/07608064-0e8f-38f2-b1f4-fdcd28c6f7db/winnebago-revenue-rises-as.html))

- 2026-06-25: Winnebago outlines fiscal 2026 net revenue of $2.65B-$2.75B amid softer demand ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4607607-winnebago-outlines-fiscal-2026-net-revenue-of-2_65b-2_75b-amid-softer-demand?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -5.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm; observed 2025-10-22.

- FY2016: $975M 

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $2.0B 

- FY2020: $2.4B 

- FY2021: $3.6B 

- FY2022: $5.0B 

- FY2023: $3.5B 

- FY2024: $3.0B 

- FY2025: $2.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 13%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm; observed 2025-10-22.

- FY2016: 11.6% 

- FY2017: 14.4% 

- FY2018: 14.9% 

- FY2019: 15.5% 

- FY2020: 13.3% 

- FY2021: 17.9% 

- FY2022: 18.7% 

- FY2023: 16.8% 

- FY2024: 14.6% 

- FY2025: 13.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in recreational vehicles; annual sales are USD 2.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-22); FY2025: revenue 2798200000; grossProfit 365100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-11); WGO.US: Winnebago Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells recreation outdoor lifestyle products primarily for use in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. It operates through three segments: Towable RV, Motorhome RV, and Marine. The company provides towable products that are non-motorized vehicles to be towed by automobiles, pickup trucks, SUVs, or vans for use as temporary living quarters, such as conventional travel trailers, fifth wheels, folding camper trailers, truck campers, and park models under the Winnebago and Grand Design brand names. It also offers motorhome RV, a self-propelled mobile dwelling used primarily as temporary living quarters during vacation and camping trips, or to support active and mobile lifestyles under the Winnebago, Newmar, and Grand Design brand names. In addition, the company offers other specialty commercial vehicles for law enforcement command centers, mobile medical clinics, and mobile office spaces; commercial vehicles as bare shells to third-party up fitters, as well as manufactures and sells recreational boats under the Chris-Craft and Barletta brand names. Further, it is involved in the original equipment manufacturing of parts for other manufacturers and commercial vehicles. The company sells its products primarily through independent dealers in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Winnebago Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1958 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 13% to 16.8% during 2023–25; it earns 20.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 13%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.248870364399051],[2017,0.1877889570810117],[2018,0.2095795740522327],[2019,0.2176516584267732],[2020,0.12313565612976302],[2021,0.3767152494278623],[2022,0.40429491937271644],[2023,0.19490824580828472],[2024,0.054275],[2025,0.042033340395886104]]; median 0.2022439099302587. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 19% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-22); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.17917091271340088],[2022,0.18745212022437688],[2023,0.1679032858738935]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 53.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 24551000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 26690000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13993000; cash acquisitions 392473000; owner earnings 89312000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.394403887495521.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2018: growth capex 9491000; upkeep 19177000; cash acquisitions 81200000; owner earnings 102357000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8860263587248551.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 40858000; cash acquisitions 702000; owner earnings 94257000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.007447722715554283.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 32377000; cash acquisitions 260965000; owner earnings 67166000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.88537355209481.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2021: growth capex 12329000; upkeep 32562000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 281900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.04373536715147215.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2022: growth capex 34312000; upkeep 53657000; cash acquisitions 228200000; owner earnings 390600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.672073732718894.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 83200000; cash acquisitions 87500000; owner earnings 180600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4844961240310077.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 45000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 26600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 39400000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 24800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); Dividend observations: [[2016,10891000],[2017,12738000],[2018,12738000],[2019,13670000],[2020,14588000],[2021,16168000],[2022,23782000],[2023,33200000],[2024,36800000],[2025,38900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-22); FY2025: cash repurchases 53700000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-11); WGO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.474 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-11.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 11.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 2.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.170761696158566. Price 24.66; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.1169461306574895 → FY2025 0.8763250883392226. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $28.25 per share

- 2016-11: $32.45 per share

- 2016-12: $31.65 per share

- 2017-01: $31.40 per share

- 2017-02: $33.00 per share

- 2017-03: $29.25 per share

- 2017-04: $28.70 per share

- 2017-05: $24.50 per share

- 2017-06: $35.00 per share

- 2017-07: $36.80 per share

- 2017-08: $36.15 per share

- 2017-09: $44.75 per share

- 2017-10: $49.15 per share

- 2017-11: $54.75 per share

- 2017-12: $55.60 per share

- 2018-01: $45.45 per share

- 2018-02: $43.55 per share

- 2018-03: $37.60 per share

- 2018-04: $37.90 per share

- 2018-05: $36.25 per share

- 2018-06: $40.60 per share

- 2018-07: $39.90 per share

- 2018-08: $36.95 per share

- 2018-09: $33.15 per share

- 2018-10: $27.56 per share

- 2018-11: $25.03 per share

- 2018-12: $24.21 per share

- 2019-01: $28.60 per share

- 2019-02: $32.63 per share

- 2019-03: $31.15 per share

- 2019-04: $35.37 per share

- 2019-05: $32.14 per share

- 2019-06: $38.65 per share

- 2019-07: $40.30 per share

- 2019-08: $32.02 per share

- 2019-09: $38.35 per share

- 2019-10: $48.07 per share

- 2019-11: $47.53 per share

- 2019-12: $52.98 per share

- 2020-01: $54.76 per share

- 2020-02: $51.89 per share

- 2020-03: $27.81 per share

- 2020-04: $44.37 per share

- 2020-05: $54.40 per share

- 2020-06: $66.62 per share

- 2020-07: $60.41 per share

- 2020-08: $53.98 per share

- 2020-09: $51.67 per share

- 2020-10: $46.95 per share

- 2020-11: $52.93 per share

- 2020-12: $59.94 per share

- 2021-01: $69.06 per share

- 2021-02: $69.60 per share

- 2021-03: $76.71 per share

- 2021-04: $79.95 per share

- 2021-05: $73.96 per share

- 2021-06: $67.96 per share

- 2021-07: $71.87 per share

- 2021-08: $69.62 per share

- 2021-09: $72.45 per share

- 2021-10: $67.69 per share

- 2021-11: $72.22 per share

- 2021-12: $74.92 per share

- 2022-01: $64.52 per share

- 2022-02: $64.07 per share

- 2022-03: $54.03 per share

- 2022-04: $53.18 per share

- 2022-05: $49.45 per share

- 2022-06: $48.56 per share

- 2022-07: $60.37 per share

- 2022-08: $57.58 per share

- 2022-09: $53.21 per share

- 2022-10: $59.69 per share

- 2022-11: $58.59 per share

- 2022-12: $52.70 per share

- 2023-01: $63.68 per share

- 2023-02: $63.56 per share

- 2023-03: $57.70 per share

- 2023-04: $58.14 per share

- 2023-05: $55.64 per share

- 2023-06: $66.69 per share

- 2023-07: $68.80 per share

- 2023-08: $64.85 per share

- 2023-09: $59.45 per share

- 2023-10: $57.95 per share

- 2023-11: $64.63 per share

- 2023-12: $72.88 per share

- 2024-01: $65.72 per share

- 2024-02: $71.73 per share

- 2024-03: $74.00 per share

- 2024-04: $61.58 per share

- 2024-05: $62.05 per share

- 2024-06: $54.20 per share

- 2024-07: $62.52 per share

- 2024-08: $59.66 per share

- 2024-09: $58.11 per share

- 2024-10: $56.04 per share

- 2024-11: $58.54 per share

- 2024-12: $47.78 per share

- 2025-01: $47.80 per share

- 2025-02: $40.41 per share

- 2025-03: $34.46 per share

- 2025-04: $31.82 per share

- 2025-05: $33.93 per share

- 2025-06: $29.00 per share

- 2025-07: $29.72 per share

- 2025-08: $35.98 per share

- 2025-09: $33.44 per share

- 2025-10: $37.71 per share

- 2025-11: $36.19 per share

- 2025-12: $40.52 per share

- 2026-01: $45.91 per share

- 2026-02: $39.89 per share

- 2026-03: $30.99 per share

- 2026-04: $32.61 per share

- 2026-05: $29.69 per share

- 2026-06: $31.24 per share

- 2026-07: $30.28 per share

- 2026-08: $30.09 per share

- 2026-09: $26.37 per share

- 2026-10: $24.66 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $18.30 per share, central $20.49 per share, high $23.40 per share

- FY2017: low $23.68 per share, central $28.73 per share, high $33.45 per share

- FY2018: low $36.91 per share, central $48.43 per share, high $56.67 per share

- FY2019: low $40.40 per share, central $57.71 per share, high $67.79 per share

- FY2020: low $52.78 per share, central $72.25 per share, high $83.59 per share

- FY2021: low $84.06 per share, central $115.53 per share, high $133.86 per share

- FY2022: low $109.20 per share, central $153.62 per share, high $179.49 per share

- FY2023: low $74.10 per share, central $100.03 per share, high $116.16 per share

- FY2024: low $66.20 per share, central $74.06 per share, high $84.52 per share

- FY2025: low $60.09 per share, central $67.80 per share, high $78.06 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/107687/000010768725000034/wgo-20250830.htm); period 2025-08-30, filed 2025-10-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.