# Wingstop (WING.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WING

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:06.760Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $131.03 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $58.09 per share, central $82.84 per share, high $96.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value $82.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:06.760Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.26×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.26×

- FY2025: 0.28×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 84.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 61.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 48.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 29.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 84.7%

- FY2017: 81.9%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 84.8%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 93.9%

- FY2022: 89.4%

- FY2023: 71.5%

- FY2024: 61.4%

- FY2025: 55.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $414M

- Net income, five-year total: $449M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 95.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.62×

- FY2022: 0.95×

- FY2023: 0.86×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 84.7% vs 61.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.48 to 3.70 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Market cap gain: $5.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$669M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 29.2%

- Per-share value change: $3.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.70

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $23M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $552M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 84.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 61.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.48

- FY2017: $0.81

- FY2018: $0.73

- FY2019: $0.69

- FY2020: $0.78

- FY2021: $1.42

- FY2022: $1.77

- FY2023: $2.35

- FY2024: $3.70

- FY2025: $6.21

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.88×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.5%

- FY2017: -2.6%

- FY2018: -12.2%

- FY2019: -10.9%

- FY2020: -20.0%

- FY2021: -2.5%

- FY2022: -5.5%

- FY2023: -13.6%

- FY2024: -6.8%

- FY2025: 3.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 69% since Jun 2024 · "Wingstop’s same-store sales hit once again by soft consumer spending" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +11.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:51.882Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: Wingstop's Revenue Jumps, Costs Rise ([fool.com](https://www.fool.com/data-news/2025/04/30/wingstops-revenue-jumps-costs-rise/))

- 2025-05-02: WING Q1 Earnings Call: Menu Innovation and Digital Investments Offset Margin Pressure ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wing-q1-earnings-call-menu-173835588.html))

- 2025-07-30: Wingstop beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; updates FY25 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4474192-wingstop-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-updates-fy25-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-04: Wingstop’s same-store sales drop 5.6% as chain normalizes after record two-year growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wingstop-same-store-sales-drop-170604110.html))

- 2026-06-05: Wingstop is expected to get a sales boost from its first national loyalty program ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4601129-wingstop-is-expected-to-get-a-sales-boost-from-its-first-national-loyalty-program?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-07-29: Wingstop’s same-store sales hit once again by soft consumer spending ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/wingstop-same-store-sales-hit-144857999.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $103M 

- FY2017: $133M 

- FY2018: $153M 

- FY2019: $200M 

- FY2020: $249M 

- FY2021: $283M 

- FY2022: $358M 

- FY2023: $460M 

- FY2024: $626M 

- FY2025: $697M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 82.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 62.1% 

- FY2017: 54.1% 

- FY2018: 57.1% 

- FY2019: 49.4% 

- FY2020: 49.4% 

- FY2021: 49.9% 

- FY2022: 47.8% 

- FY2023: 48.4% 

- FY2024: 48.1% 

- FY2025: 82.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 696.9 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 696853000; grossProfit 575727000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WING.US: Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand in United States, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, and The Netherlands. Its restaurants provides classic wings, boneless wings, tenders, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors, as well as chicken sandwiches, fries, and hand-cut carrots and celery that are cooked-to-order. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48.1% to 82.6% during 2023–25; it earns 84.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 48.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 82.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.8473982066735264],[2017,0.8185253592754381],[2018,1.2532433828533422],[2019,0.847907187054496],[2020,1.3395304820820688],[2021,0.9394749237801236],[2022,0.8938998799706096],[2023,0.7146993513603346],[2024,0.6140438837765357],[2025,0.5576087310388179]]; median 0.8476526968640112. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 9.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 95.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2056000; owner earnings 14721000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 2535000; owner earnings 24781000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 3982000; owner earnings 22050000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 3206832.114399627; upkeep 19279167.885600373; owner earnings 6680832.114399627. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.480004894523204.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 6052000; owner earnings 24772000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 3657655.0135721564; upkeep 24363344.986427844; owner earnings 26237655.013572156. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.139404798625492.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 10294240.352512728; upkeep 13645759.647487272; owner earnings 50200240.35251273. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20506356703125742.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 17873994.843026068; upkeep 22959005.156973932; owner earnings 60454994.84302607. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29565786730172827.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 32439000; upkeep 19490000; owner earnings 108717000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29838019812908745.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 16435358.495999668; upkeep 31005641.504000332; owner earnings 168329358.49599966. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.097638098563717.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Incremental return on capital 0.9530779124557167, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,83268000],[2017,4070000],[2018,190737000],[2019,11742000],[2020,163792000],[2021,19822000],[2022,141279000],[2023,24907000],[2024,28869000],[2025,32382000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 221859000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WING.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.745 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 31.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.24288169544778881. Price 131.03; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.39089013517400056 → FY2025 5.995916452803294. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $26.76 per share

- 2016-11: $30.69 per share

- 2016-12: $29.59 per share

- 2017-01: $28.47 per share

- 2017-02: $26.30 per share

- 2017-03: $28.28 per share

- 2017-04: $29.43 per share

- 2017-05: $28.51 per share

- 2017-06: $30.90 per share

- 2017-07: $30.01 per share

- 2017-08: $32.41 per share

- 2017-09: $33.25 per share

- 2017-10: $33.87 per share

- 2017-11: $39.19 per share

- 2017-12: $38.98 per share

- 2018-01: $48.36 per share

- 2018-02: $45.31 per share

- 2018-03: $47.23 per share

- 2018-04: $48.86 per share

- 2018-05: $50.61 per share

- 2018-06: $52.12 per share

- 2018-07: $49.35 per share

- 2018-08: $66.95 per share

- 2018-09: $68.27 per share

- 2018-10: $62.62 per share

- 2018-11: $65.62 per share

- 2018-12: $64.19 per share

- 2019-01: $65.65 per share

- 2019-02: $66.61 per share

- 2019-03: $76.03 per share

- 2019-04: $75.27 per share

- 2019-05: $79.68 per share

- 2019-06: $94.75 per share

- 2019-07: $95.59 per share

- 2019-08: $100.17 per share

- 2019-09: $87.28 per share

- 2019-10: $83.43 per share

- 2019-11: $80.00 per share

- 2019-12: $86.23 per share

- 2020-01: $92.77 per share

- 2020-02: $84.45 per share

- 2020-03: $79.70 per share

- 2020-04: $117.27 per share

- 2020-05: $121.95 per share

- 2020-06: $138.97 per share

- 2020-07: $156.25 per share

- 2020-08: $163.40 per share

- 2020-09: $136.65 per share

- 2020-10: $116.33 per share

- 2020-11: $127.31 per share

- 2020-12: $132.55 per share

- 2021-01: $150.05 per share

- 2021-02: $136.15 per share

- 2021-03: $127.17 per share

- 2021-04: $158.41 per share

- 2021-05: $142.68 per share

- 2021-06: $157.63 per share

- 2021-07: $171.31 per share

- 2021-08: $171.93 per share

- 2021-09: $163.93 per share

- 2021-10: $172.47 per share

- 2021-11: $160.60 per share

- 2021-12: $172.80 per share

- 2022-01: $153.25 per share

- 2022-02: $145.35 per share

- 2022-03: $117.35 per share

- 2022-04: $91.76 per share

- 2022-05: $79.66 per share

- 2022-06: $74.77 per share

- 2022-07: $126.18 per share

- 2022-08: $113.86 per share

- 2022-09: $125.42 per share

- 2022-10: $158.39 per share

- 2022-11: $165.51 per share

- 2022-12: $137.62 per share

- 2023-01: $158.47 per share

- 2023-02: $170.35 per share

- 2023-03: $183.58 per share

- 2023-04: $200.11 per share

- 2023-05: $199.36 per share

- 2023-06: $200.16 per share

- 2023-07: $168.58 per share

- 2023-08: $160.64 per share

- 2023-09: $179.84 per share

- 2023-10: $182.77 per share

- 2023-11: $240.36 per share

- 2023-12: $256.58 per share

- 2024-01: $281.11 per share

- 2024-02: $351.05 per share

- 2024-03: $366.40 per share

- 2024-04: $384.79 per share

- 2024-05: $368.65 per share

- 2024-06: $422.66 per share

- 2024-07: $373.88 per share

- 2024-08: $386.11 per share

- 2024-09: $416.08 per share

- 2024-10: $287.69 per share

- 2024-11: $328.77 per share

- 2024-12: $284.20 per share

- 2025-01: $297.90 per share

- 2025-02: $234.78 per share

- 2025-03: $225.58 per share

- 2025-04: $263.89 per share

- 2025-05: $341.70 per share

- 2025-06: $336.74 per share

- 2025-07: $377.34 per share

- 2025-08: $328.12 per share

- 2025-09: $251.68 per share

- 2025-10: $216.63 per share

- 2025-11: $264.73 per share

- 2025-12: $238.49 per share

- 2026-01: $265.43 per share

- 2026-02: $259.51 per share

- 2026-03: $154.97 per share

- 2026-04: $164.06 per share

- 2026-05: $156.96 per share

- 2026-06: $173.41 per share

- 2026-07: $129.49 per share

- 2026-08: $109.48 per share

- 2026-09: $105.37 per share

- 2026-10: $131.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $5.61 per share, central $6.38 per share, high $7.39 per share

- FY2017: low $7.11 per share, central $8.08 per share, high $9.38 per share

- FY2018: low $8.46 per share, central $9.59 per share, high $11.08 per share

- FY2019: low $10.78 per share, central $12.22 per share, high $14.15 per share

- FY2020: low $14.20 per share, central $16.00 per share, high $18.38 per share

- FY2021: low $11.70 per share, central $13.12 per share, high $15.00 per share

- FY2022: low $22.07 per share, central $28.99 per share, high $33.02 per share

- FY2023: low $24.99 per share, central $35.21 per share, high $40.91 per share

- FY2024: low $50.96 per share, central $69.61 per share, high $80.01 per share

- FY2025: low $57.11 per share, central $80.33 per share, high $93.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636222/000163622226000008/wing-20251227.htm); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.