# Willis Lease Finance (WLFC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WLFC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:07.648Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $38.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $51.25 per share, central $73.21 per share, high $86.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value $73.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:07.648Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.9% at the stated quote. About 15.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.65×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.20×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.32×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 62.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 65.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 90.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.3%

- FY2017: 2.1%

- FY2018: 2.4%

- FY2019: 3.7%

- FY2020: 0.5%

- FY2021: 0.2%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: 1.9%

- FY2024: 3.7%

- FY2025: 4.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.57×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $158M

- Net income, five-year total: $275M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 16.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -34.04×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.1% vs 3.7%

- Per-share earnings: 2.10 to 15.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Market cap gain: $780M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $396M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 28.9%

- Per-share value change: $13.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $15.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.04

- Average buyback yield: 4.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $38M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $471M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.10

- FY2017: $9.99

- FY2018: $7.15

- FY2019: $11.05

- FY2020: $1.59

- FY2021: $0.53

- FY2022: $0.86

- FY2023: $6.76

- FY2024: $15.96

- FY2025: $16.20

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -4.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 15.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.49×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.5%

- FY2017: -4.6%

- FY2018: -7.5%

- FY2019: -8.4%

- FY2020: -3.4%

- FY2021: -3.5%

- FY2022: -5.4%

- FY2023: -7.0%

- FY2024: -5.3%

- FY2025: -4.2%

## Holders

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 83% since Jun 2026 · "WLFC's Q2 Earnings Fall Y/Y on Lower Maintenance Revenues" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +18.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:52.043Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.6% a year for ten years

- 2026-03-16: Willis Lease Finance Q4 Earnings Decline Y/Y Due to Higher Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/willis-lease-finance-q4-earnings-171800767.html))

- 2026-08-10: WLFC's Q2 Earnings Fall Y/Y on Lower Maintenance Revenues ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wlfcs-q2-earnings-fall-y-185100633.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +18.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: $207M 

- FY2017: $275M 

- FY2018: $348M 

- FY2019: $409M 

- FY2020: $289M 

- FY2021: $274M 

- FY2022: $312M 

- FY2023: $419M 

- FY2024: $569M 

- FY2025: $676M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 65.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2016: 61.6% 

- FY2017: 61.1% 

- FY2018: 60.4% 

- FY2019: 63.6% 

- FY2020: 61.4% 

- FY2021: 61.5% 

- FY2022: 65.0% 

- FY2023: 69.6% 

- FY2024: 75.4% 

- FY2025: 65.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in rental & leasing services; annual sales are USD 675.8 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 675838000; grossProfit 444096000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); WLFC.US: Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and leasing commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, and related aircraft equipment, as well as the purchase and resale of commercial aircraft engines and other aircraft equipment, and service and maintenance related businesses. It also purchases and resells after-market engine parts, whole engines, engine modules, and portable aircraft components. The company serves commercial aircraft operators, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul organizations. Willis Lease Finance Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Coconut Creek, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 65.7% to 75.4% during 2023–25; it earns 2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 69.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 75.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 65.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.013241838704243865],[2017,0.020822508198235647],[2018,0.02417020899270164],[2019,0.03654304785100691],[2020,0.004699331541724766],[2021,0.002423603510804953],[2022,0.0027395195175930974],[2023,0.018742151339869877],[2024,0.036644809830355736],[2025,0.045984515018041565]]; median 0.01978232976905276. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 5.1% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2017: growth capex 318248000; upkeep 66023000; owner earnings 62158000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.119984555487628.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 368089000; upkeep 76814000; owner earnings 43231000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 8.514468783974463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 209479000; upkeep 86236000; owner earnings 66922000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.130196347987209.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2022: growth capex 204763000; upkeep 88260000; owner earnings 5439000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 37.64717779003493.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 77855000; upkeep 90925000; owner earnings 43781000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7782828167469906.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: growth capex 735270000; upkeep 95209000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 108612000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 6.769693956468898.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 413026000; upkeep 111553000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 113758000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 3.6307424532780113.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Incremental return on capital 0.05100171671254525, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,149155000],[2017,1311000],[2018,3348000],[2019,3250000],[2020,3259000],[2021,3251000],[2022,3268000],[2023,3241000],[2024,14180000],[2025,14430000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 3788000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 54.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); WLFC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 54.096999999999994 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 33.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03519479579203305. Price 38.45; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9209966195066984 → FY2025 16.204843304843305. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $26.61 per share

- 2016-11: $26.79 per share

- 2016-12: $25.58 per share

- 2017-01: $25.48 per share

- 2017-02: $25.42 per share

- 2017-03: $22.35 per share

- 2017-04: $22.71 per share

- 2017-05: $26.12 per share

- 2017-06: $26.73 per share

- 2017-07: $25.28 per share

- 2017-08: $23.80 per share

- 2017-09: $24.59 per share

- 2017-10: $25.09 per share

- 2017-11: $26.24 per share

- 2017-12: $24.97 per share

- 2018-01: $27.00 per share

- 2018-02: $27.30 per share

- 2018-03: $34.28 per share

- 2018-04: $32.68 per share

- 2018-05: $31.89 per share

- 2018-06: $31.59 per share

- 2018-07: $31.22 per share

- 2018-08: $34.28 per share

- 2018-09: $34.51 per share

- 2018-10: $34.62 per share

- 2018-11: $36.84 per share

- 2018-12: $34.60 per share

- 2019-01: $38.28 per share

- 2019-02: $42.06 per share

- 2019-03: $42.39 per share

- 2019-04: $49.72 per share

- 2019-05: $49.80 per share

- 2019-06: $58.32 per share

- 2019-07: $62.25 per share

- 2019-08: $61.77 per share

- 2019-09: $55.38 per share

- 2019-10: $54.51 per share

- 2019-11: $60.00 per share

- 2019-12: $58.91 per share

- 2020-01: $59.30 per share

- 2020-02: $56.70 per share

- 2020-03: $26.60 per share

- 2020-04: $20.01 per share

- 2020-05: $21.08 per share

- 2020-06: $24.28 per share

- 2020-07: $19.50 per share

- 2020-08: $21.38 per share

- 2020-09: $18.45 per share

- 2020-10: $21.21 per share

- 2020-11: $32.21 per share

- 2020-12: $30.46 per share

- 2021-01: $27.72 per share

- 2021-02: $32.30 per share

- 2021-03: $43.46 per share

- 2021-04: $42.82 per share

- 2021-05: $44.35 per share

- 2021-06: $42.86 per share

- 2021-07: $41.60 per share

- 2021-08: $37.65 per share

- 2021-09: $37.19 per share

- 2021-10: $40.51 per share

- 2021-11: $34.25 per share

- 2021-12: $37.65 per share

- 2022-01: $35.77 per share

- 2022-02: $34.96 per share

- 2022-03: $32.19 per share

- 2022-04: $31.10 per share

- 2022-05: $37.52 per share

- 2022-06: $37.48 per share

- 2022-07: $39.03 per share

- 2022-08: $36.60 per share

- 2022-09: $32.74 per share

- 2022-10: $38.10 per share

- 2022-11: $48.00 per share

- 2022-12: $59.01 per share

- 2023-01: $57.99 per share

- 2023-02: $58.54 per share

- 2023-03: $54.78 per share

- 2023-04: $50.50 per share

- 2023-05: $38.85 per share

- 2023-06: $39.13 per share

- 2023-07: $42.29 per share

- 2023-08: $42.63 per share

- 2023-09: $42.30 per share

- 2023-10: $44.68 per share

- 2023-11: $45.72 per share

- 2023-12: $48.88 per share

- 2024-01: $49.01 per share

- 2024-02: $47.92 per share

- 2024-03: $49.62 per share

- 2024-04: $48.61 per share

- 2024-05: $65.13 per share

- 2024-06: $69.30 per share

- 2024-07: $86.28 per share

- 2024-08: $108.19 per share

- 2024-09: $148.81 per share

- 2024-10: $181.33 per share

- 2024-11: $218.07 per share

- 2024-12: $207.55 per share

- 2025-01: $193.92 per share

- 2025-02: $202.25 per share

- 2025-03: $157.97 per share

- 2025-04: $154.72 per share

- 2025-05: $134.34 per share

- 2025-06: $142.78 per share

- 2025-07: $141.58 per share

- 2025-08: $148.68 per share

- 2025-09: $137.09 per share

- 2025-10: $128.38 per share

- 2025-11: $122.71 per share

- 2025-12: $135.64 per share

- 2026-01: $182.28 per share

- 2026-02: $203.71 per share

- 2026-03: $170.26 per share

- 2026-04: $194.15 per share

- 2026-05: $177.01 per share

- 2026-06: $228.80 per share

- 2026-07: $71.33 per share

- 2026-08: $54.13 per share

- 2026-09: $49.91 per share

- 2026-10: $38.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $18.05 per share, central $20.50 per share, high $23.77 per share

- FY2018: low $33.35 per share, central $47.31 per share, high $55.44 per share

- FY2019: low $113.95 per share, central $162.79 per share, high $191.22 per share

- FY2020: low $75.84 per share, central $84.65 per share, high $96.38 per share

- FY2021: low $60.01 per share, central $68.09 per share, high $78.84 per share

- FY2022: low $10.38 per share, central $11.68 per share, high $13.41 per share

- FY2023: low $15.31 per share, central $21.87 per share, high $25.69 per share

- FY2024: low $19.83 per share, central $28.33 per share, high $33.28 per share

- FY2025: low $137.32 per share, central $195.99 per share, high $230.15 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018164/000101816426000036/wlfc-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.